IdaGriz01
Well-known member
Debated with myself about doing a “guesses” post this week. I finally decided it could make a reasonable test case as to how the pollsters react to early-season money game losses … especially if they were close. There’s also an interesting possibility regarding the Griz result against North Dakota.
Rank Guess, Team (Record), Current Rank.
1. NDSU (3-0) [1]
2. South Dakota St. (3-0) [2]
3. Tarleton State (4-0) [3]
4. Montana State (1-2) [4]
5. Montana (2-0) [5]
6. Rhode Island (3-0) [6]
7. Illinois State (2-1) [7]
8. Idaho (2-1) [8]
9. UC Davis (1-1) [9]
10. Lehigh (3-0) [10]
11. South Dakota (1-2) [12]
12. Villanova (1-1) [11]
13. Tennessee Tech (3-0) [15]
14. Abilene Christian (1-2) [13]
15. North Dakota (1-2) [16]
16. Incarnate Word (1-2) [14]
17. Southern Illinois (2-1) [17]
18. Northern Arizona (2-1) [18]
19. Jackson State (2-1) [19]
20. Austin Peay (2-1) [22]
21. Sacramento State (1-2) [21]
22. Monmouth (2-1) [20]
23. Lamar (2-1) [24]
24. West Georgia (3-0) [25]
25. New Hampshire (2-1) [23]
The top-10 seems like a given, although I could see Rhode Island slip a spot after their close call at winless Holy Cross.
Then it gets interesting, with three mid-ranked teams losing big on the road to FBS opponents. Later in the season, a loss to an FBS team will cost the FCS team 2-4 spots, depending upon the record/strength of the FBS opponent. We don’t really know for this early in the season.
Of course, Penn State is highly ranked, so Villanova should be fairly safe. And TCU, while it’s not ranked, is strong enough to probably let Abilene Christian off the hook. However, UT San Antonio has yet to win an FBS game. I could see Incarnate Word being nudged down by (3-0) Tennessee Tech.
That, of course, brings us to North Dakota. First, I do not see them losing even one spot in the next poll. Haley made a big point of how the Griz had to finish a big home-field comeback to pull the game out. It actually would not surprise me to see the pollsters nudge the Hawks up a spot … or even two. Weird? Sure, but it’s early in the season.
Monmouth is another money game loss, but only by a TD to another FBS team that has yet to win an FBS game. In fact, Monmouth led at the half and matched Charlotte score-for-score in the 4th quarter. They might lose a spot or two in the next poll, but maybe not.
As a minor side issue, I can see Austin Peay nudging ahead of Sac State. I think Haley’s column featuring them as a surprise early-season power might be enough to do that.
Then we get to the final test case, New Hampshire. They took Ball State down to the wire on the road. Admittedly, Ball State is not a very good FBS team. Still, it is a loss, so it would not shock me if the pollsters dropped UNH out of the top-25 … but it would also not surprise me if they barely hung on.
Rank Guess, Team (Record), Current Rank.
1. NDSU (3-0) [1]
2. South Dakota St. (3-0) [2]
3. Tarleton State (4-0) [3]
4. Montana State (1-2) [4]
5. Montana (2-0) [5]
6. Rhode Island (3-0) [6]
7. Illinois State (2-1) [7]
8. Idaho (2-1) [8]
9. UC Davis (1-1) [9]
10. Lehigh (3-0) [10]
11. South Dakota (1-2) [12]
12. Villanova (1-1) [11]
13. Tennessee Tech (3-0) [15]
14. Abilene Christian (1-2) [13]
15. North Dakota (1-2) [16]
16. Incarnate Word (1-2) [14]
17. Southern Illinois (2-1) [17]
18. Northern Arizona (2-1) [18]
19. Jackson State (2-1) [19]
20. Austin Peay (2-1) [22]
21. Sacramento State (1-2) [21]
22. Monmouth (2-1) [20]
23. Lamar (2-1) [24]
24. West Georgia (3-0) [25]
25. New Hampshire (2-1) [23]
The top-10 seems like a given, although I could see Rhode Island slip a spot after their close call at winless Holy Cross.
Then it gets interesting, with three mid-ranked teams losing big on the road to FBS opponents. Later in the season, a loss to an FBS team will cost the FCS team 2-4 spots, depending upon the record/strength of the FBS opponent. We don’t really know for this early in the season.
Of course, Penn State is highly ranked, so Villanova should be fairly safe. And TCU, while it’s not ranked, is strong enough to probably let Abilene Christian off the hook. However, UT San Antonio has yet to win an FBS game. I could see Incarnate Word being nudged down by (3-0) Tennessee Tech.
That, of course, brings us to North Dakota. First, I do not see them losing even one spot in the next poll. Haley made a big point of how the Griz had to finish a big home-field comeback to pull the game out. It actually would not surprise me to see the pollsters nudge the Hawks up a spot … or even two. Weird? Sure, but it’s early in the season.
Monmouth is another money game loss, but only by a TD to another FBS team that has yet to win an FBS game. In fact, Monmouth led at the half and matched Charlotte score-for-score in the 4th quarter. They might lose a spot or two in the next poll, but maybe not.
As a minor side issue, I can see Austin Peay nudging ahead of Sac State. I think Haley’s column featuring them as a surprise early-season power might be enough to do that.
Then we get to the final test case, New Hampshire. They took Ball State down to the wire on the road. Admittedly, Ball State is not a very good FBS team. Still, it is a loss, so it would not shock me if the pollsters dropped UNH out of the top-25 … but it would also not surprise me if they barely hung on.
