IdaGriz01
Well-known member
I started this week’s version largely out of habit and respect for “tradition,” figuring it would be fairly routine. But with four ranked-vs-ranked matchups decided, a few interesting “story lines” cropped up. The UC-Davis loss is intriguing, but for me the South Dakota State case is a whole story in itself.
Rank Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 NDSU (11-0) [1]
#2 Montana (11-0) [2]
#3 Montana State (9-2) [3]
#4 Lehigh (11-0) [4]
#5 Tennessee Tech (10-1) [5]
#6 Tarleton State (10-1) [6]
#7 Harvard (9-0) [7]
#8 Mercer (9-1) [8]
#9 Villanova (8-2) [10]
#10 Rhode Island (9-2) [11]
#11 Monmouth (9-2) [12]
#12 UC Davis (7-3) [9]
#13 North Dakota (7-4) [13]
#14 Illinois State (8-3) [14]
#15 Stephen F. Austin (9-2) [15]
#16 South Dakota (8-4) [17]
#17 Abilene Christian (7-4) [18]
#18 YSU (7-4) [20]
#19 Jackson State (8-2) [22]
#20 New Hampshire (7-4) [NR]
#21 Lafayette (8-3) [NR]
#22 SE Louisiana (8-3) [23]
#23 Northern Arizona (7-4) [24]
#24 Yale (7-2) [NR]
#25 Lamar (8-3) [19]
SDSU (7-4) [16]
SIU (6-5) [21]
Western Carolina (6-5) [25]
The first loss of consequence was UC-Davis. The Tennessee Tech loss was essentially foreordained and should not hurt them at all: Tarleton beating up on another super-cupcake is meaningless and is not likely to move them ahead of the Golden Eagles. Normally, I’d expect the pollsters to go relatively easy on the Aggies for a road loss to a highly ranked team. However, they did get doubled up on the score, so I’m guessing they could lose three or four spots.
So … what to do with South Dakota State? They have now lost four in a row, including a home loss to pitiful Indiana State (3-8). Even if QB1 Chase Mason comes back – and that looks less and less likely – they will probably lose next week on the road at North Dakota. Although they lost to a ranked team, I think the pollsters will hammer the bunnies hard, very likely all the way out of the top-25.
Next up, Lamar, which makes for another interesting story. The Cardinals lost on the road to a higher-ranked opponent. Normally, that should not hurt them all that much. However, the game was not as close as the final score implies. Lamar could do nothing until late in garbage time. Then they managed a final TD and 2-point conversion. That made the final score look somewhat more respectable. Enough pollsters will likely notice that and hammer Lamar down quite a bit. Still, their overall record will probably keep them (barely) in the top-25.
On the other hand, the overall record will probably hurt Southern Illinois, even though they took ranked South Dakota into multiple overtimes before losing at home. That puts their record at (6-5), and I think the pollsters will write them off.
Western Carolina faces the same problem (a 6-5 record) after their home loss to East Tennessee State. They will surely drop out of the top-25.
With three teams out of the top-25, the guessing game begins. Who will move up to replace them? The first is an easy call: New Hampshire was the top “Other” vote-getter and will surely move up after they drubbed cupcake Bryant (3-8). I think the pollsters will then stretch a little bit to move Lafayette into the top-25. Their overall record (8-3) is deserving, and their game next weekend will be for the championship and auto-bid from the Patriot League. My next guess goes even further out on a limb. Although Yale is well down the “Others” list, I think there’s a chance that the pollsters will jump them into the top-25 going into their showdown with Harvard next weekend.
Rank Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 NDSU (11-0) [1]
#2 Montana (11-0) [2]
#3 Montana State (9-2) [3]
#4 Lehigh (11-0) [4]
#5 Tennessee Tech (10-1) [5]
#6 Tarleton State (10-1) [6]
#7 Harvard (9-0) [7]
#8 Mercer (9-1) [8]
#9 Villanova (8-2) [10]
#10 Rhode Island (9-2) [11]
#11 Monmouth (9-2) [12]
#12 UC Davis (7-3) [9]
#13 North Dakota (7-4) [13]
#14 Illinois State (8-3) [14]
#15 Stephen F. Austin (9-2) [15]
#16 South Dakota (8-4) [17]
#17 Abilene Christian (7-4) [18]
#18 YSU (7-4) [20]
#19 Jackson State (8-2) [22]
#20 New Hampshire (7-4) [NR]
#21 Lafayette (8-3) [NR]
#22 SE Louisiana (8-3) [23]
#23 Northern Arizona (7-4) [24]
#24 Yale (7-2) [NR]
#25 Lamar (8-3) [19]
SDSU (7-4) [16]
SIU (6-5) [21]
Western Carolina (6-5) [25]
The first loss of consequence was UC-Davis. The Tennessee Tech loss was essentially foreordained and should not hurt them at all: Tarleton beating up on another super-cupcake is meaningless and is not likely to move them ahead of the Golden Eagles. Normally, I’d expect the pollsters to go relatively easy on the Aggies for a road loss to a highly ranked team. However, they did get doubled up on the score, so I’m guessing they could lose three or four spots.
So … what to do with South Dakota State? They have now lost four in a row, including a home loss to pitiful Indiana State (3-8). Even if QB1 Chase Mason comes back – and that looks less and less likely – they will probably lose next week on the road at North Dakota. Although they lost to a ranked team, I think the pollsters will hammer the bunnies hard, very likely all the way out of the top-25.
Next up, Lamar, which makes for another interesting story. The Cardinals lost on the road to a higher-ranked opponent. Normally, that should not hurt them all that much. However, the game was not as close as the final score implies. Lamar could do nothing until late in garbage time. Then they managed a final TD and 2-point conversion. That made the final score look somewhat more respectable. Enough pollsters will likely notice that and hammer Lamar down quite a bit. Still, their overall record will probably keep them (barely) in the top-25.
On the other hand, the overall record will probably hurt Southern Illinois, even though they took ranked South Dakota into multiple overtimes before losing at home. That puts their record at (6-5), and I think the pollsters will write them off.
Western Carolina faces the same problem (a 6-5 record) after their home loss to East Tennessee State. They will surely drop out of the top-25.
With three teams out of the top-25, the guessing game begins. Who will move up to replace them? The first is an easy call: New Hampshire was the top “Other” vote-getter and will surely move up after they drubbed cupcake Bryant (3-8). I think the pollsters will then stretch a little bit to move Lafayette into the top-25. Their overall record (8-3) is deserving, and their game next weekend will be for the championship and auto-bid from the Patriot League. My next guess goes even further out on a limb. Although Yale is well down the “Others” list, I think there’s a chance that the pollsters will jump them into the top-25 going into their showdown with Harvard next weekend.
