FCS Playoff Scenarios

[Paytonlives]

With 24 teams in
10 Automatic bids
11 at large pretty much a done deal

Automatic Qualifiers (10)
Central Connecticut State (11-1)(Northeast)
James Madison (11-1) (CAA)
Monmouth (10-2) (Big South Conference),
North Dakota State (12-0) (Missouri Valley)
San Diego (9-2) (Pioneer)
Wofford (8-3) (Southern)
Nichols State (8-4) (Southland)
Austin Peay (9-3) (Ohio Valley)
Weber St. (9-3) (Big Sky)
Holy Cross (7-5) (Patriot)


At Large Bids
Big Sky (3)
Montana (9-3)
kittens (9-3)
Sacramento St (8-3)

Missouri Valley (3)
S Dakota St (8-4)
Illinois State (8-4)
Northern Iowa (8-4)

Big South (1)
Kennesaw State (10-2)

Ohio Valley (1)
SE Missouri St (9-3)

Southland (1)
Cent Arkansas (9-3)

Southern (1)
Furman (8-4)

CAA (1)
Villanova (9-3)


Florida A&M (9-2) ineligible
**N Carolina A&T (8-3) MEAC #2 (Goes to Celebration bowl) will not be in the playoffs

3 of these teams get in...
South Carolina State (8-3) MEAC #3
**Albany (8-4) CAA #3
SE Louisiana (7-4) Southland #3
**Towson (7-5) CAA #4
Southern Illinois (7-5) MV #5
North Dakota (7-4) Independant
Sam Houston State (7-5) Southland #4
Eastern Washington (7-5) Big Sky #5

** My Guess is that 2 of the last three in are Albany and Towson
The final one...????

 

[IdaGriz01]

A small point: Florida A&M is not going to the Celebration Bowl ... they are ineligible for the post-season (inadequate APR score).

 

[Paytonlives]

A small point: Florida A&M is not going to the Celebration Bowl ... they are ineligible for the post-season (inadequate APR score).

So then **N Carolina A&T (8-3) MEAC #2 Does?

 

[WILDCATFAN]

With 24 teams in
10 Automatic bids
11 at large pretty much a done deal

Automatic Qualifiers (10)
Central Connecticut State (11-1)(Northeast)
James Madison (11-1) (CAA)
Monmouth (10-2) (Big South Conference),
North Dakota State (12-0) (Missouri Valley)
San Diego (9-2) (Pioneer)
Wofford (8-3) (Southern)
Nichols State (8-4) (Southland)
Austin Peay (9-3) (Ohio Valley)
Weber St. (9-3) (Big Sky)
Holy Cross (7-5) (Patriot)


At Large Bids
Big Sky (3)
Montana (9-3)
kittens (9-3)
Sacramento St (8-3)

Missouri Valley (3)
S Dakota St (8-4)
Illinois State (8-4)
Northern Iowa (8-4)

Big South (1)
Kennesaw State (10-2)

Ohio Valley (1)
SE Missouri St (9-3)

Southland (1)
Cent Arkansas (9-3)

Southern (1)
Furman (8-4)

CAA (1)
Villanova (9-3)


Florida A&M (9-2) ineligible
**N Carolina A&T (8-3) MEAC #2 (Goes to Celebration bowl) will not be in the playoffs

3 of these teams get in...
South Carolina State (8-3) MEAC #3
**Albany (8-4) CAA #3
SE Louisiana (7-4) Southland #3
**Towson (7-5) CAA #4
Southern Illinois (7-5) MV #5
North Dakota (7-4) Independant
Sam Houston State (7-5) Southland #4
Eastern Washington (7-5) Big Sky #5

** My Guess is that 2 of the last three in are Albany and Towson
The final one...????

I think North Dakota gets that last spot

 

[IdaGriz01]

Furman, IMO, should be among the bubble teams. Their D-I records is actually 7-4 ... they played a D-II in their last game.

On the other hand, at a full 8-4 in the CAA, I see Albany as a lock. (And one of their losses was to an FBS.)

 

[talon38]

We’re praying over here that EWU gets in, hottest team in the FCS in Nov., 4-0 and 52 point avg. By the way, EWU DID BEAT North Dakota

 

[grizindabox]

We’re praying over here that EWU gets in, hottest team in the FCS in Nov., 4-0 and 52 point avg. By the way, EWU DID BEAT North Dakota

I think there is zero chance EWU gets in.

 

[talon38]

Probably not 0 %, but less than 5%, but possibly last team in or first team out. What first round team in the FCS would want to play EWU right now? Still 6-2 in the BSC, same record as Griz and Cats, just saying, but I get it, very small chance unless the playoff committee realizes EWU’s Hot November

 

[DoubleNicks]

Probably not 0 %, but less than 5%, but possibly last team in or first team out. What first round team in the FCS would want to play EWU right now? Still 6-2 in the BSC, same record as Griz and Cats, just saying, but I get it, very small chance unless the playoff committee realizes EWU’s Hot November

I agree that EWU will get some consideration but it will be a long shot. STATS did think there will be two 7-5 at-large bids (Towson & Southern Illinois).

Pros:
-last year's National Runner-up (poll panelists and committee usually are big on recent past seasons' success)
-ended on 4 game win streak (and won 5 of last 6)
-best win North Dakota (probable at-large)
-one loss was to FBS

Cons:
-Big Sky might be taking a lot of seeds, so committee might want to "spread the love"
-only 6 DI wins
-relatively poor SOS for Big Sky
-only beat one team with a winning record in a 12 game year (North Dakota)
-lost to a 5-7 Idaho team and to a .500 OVC team (Jacksonville State)

 

[IdaGriz01]

Probably not 0 %, but less than 5%, but possibly last team in or first team out. What first round team in the FCS would want to play EWU right now? Still 6-2 in the BSC, same record as Griz and Cats, just saying, but I get it, very small chance unless the playoff committee realizes EWU’s Hot November

I agree that EWU will get some consideration but it will be a long shot. STATS did think there will be two 7-5 at-large bids (Towson & Southern Illinois).

Pros:
-last year's National Runner-up (poll panelists and committee usually are big on recent past seasons' success)
-ended on 4 game win streak (and won 5 of last 6)
-best win North Dakota (probable at-large)
-one loss was to FBS

Cons:
-Big Sky might be taking a lot of seeds, so committee might want to "spread the love"
-only 6 DI wins
-relatively poor SOS for Big Sky
-only beat one team with a winning record in a 12 game year (North Dakota)
-lost to a 5-7 Idaho team and to a .500 OVC team (Jacksonville State)

For the purposes of the FCS playoffs, the Eags record is just 6-5. The NCAA guidelines say

The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all Division I opponents ...

EWU has definitely made a late-season surge. But the NCAA guidelines also say

The time of the season in which a game is played (early-season versus late-season games) is also not factored into a team’s NCAA SRS rating.

Of course, they also say that the SRS is only one of many criteria used.

The Sagarin is one of those other criteria, and EWU has indeed moved up in those ranking very nicely. However, they are still fifth among Big Sky teams in the Sagarin ... with a gap in the overall ranking of 100 for MSU to 123 for EWU (the Griz are first in the BSC at #95.) EWU is fourth in SOS in the BSC ... slightly ahead of MSU.

I just don't see EWU being favored over any of several 7-win teams:
Furman (7-4, D-I) ... two of those losses were to FBS teams
Towson (7-5) ... with one of their losses to highly-ranked FBS Florida
UT-Martin (7-5) ... two of those losses were to FBS teams
Southern Illinois (7-5) ... lost to FCS #1 NDSU, beat FBS UMass

 

[stubbins]

Ida...I want to see your bracket filled out.

I think you must watch more fcs football than anyone here...

 

[BlackChickenHobo]

We’re praying over here that EWU gets in, hottest team in the FCS in Nov., 4-0 and 52 point avg. By the way, EWU DID BEAT North Dakota

Are you from South Dakota?

 

[grizindabox]

For all those EWU fans that thought they had an outside chance...

"The last four teams left out of the field, announced in alphabetical order, were New Hampshire (6-5), South Carolina State (8-3), Southern Illinois (7-5) and Towson (7-5)."