We're down to 43 teams for 20 spots after the games this weekend.
Notable gains this week: Ind St (+12), UNH (+10), ODU (+8), SHSU (+8), SIU (+8), Wof (+7), Rich (+6).
Notable drops this week: Ill St (-17), JMU (-11), TSU (-8), SDSU (-8).
LOCKS
1) Lehigh* - Up to 8-0 (all D-I wins). Look to be best of Patriot.
2) Stony Brook* - Easy remaining schedule. 9 or 10 wins not a problem.
3) Cal Poly - Have 7 D-I wins now. With a game remaining against ISU, they're in.
4) North Dakota State* - Back to normal this week. No doubts at this point.
5) New Hampshire* - Should win their final 3 games, favorable schedule.
6) Old Dominion - Two very easy games still on the schedule will get them to 8 wins at least.
7) Northern Arizona* - Looking strong. Host CP in last game of the season. Big Sky title game?
8) Albany* - Hopefully Duquesne or Wagner don't spoil this one team league AQ.
Virtual Locks
9) Tennessee State* - Have 7 D-I wins already. Dropped game against Jacksonville State, but still okay.
10) Central Arkansas* - They should win out. They need to win 2 out of 3 though to get to 7 D-I wins.
11) Georgia Southern* - Beat Chattanooga and Howard and they're in.
12) Eastern Washington - Only need to win 2 of their last 4 to get in.
13) Montana State - Only need to win 2 of their last 4 to get in.
14) Wofford - Should be able to win 2 of their next 3 before final game against South Carolina.
15) Sam Houston - Dominating win against McNeese. Need to win their next 3, but all easy games.
16) Villanova - No easy games of their last three, but only need 2 of 3 to be in for certain.
Looking Good
17) Indiana State - Only need to win 2 of their last three to get in.
18) Richmond - Got the win they needed against JMU, still probably need to win out (definitely possible).
19) South Dakota State - Tough loss to UNI could be costly. Probably need to win 3 of their last 4.
20) Bethune Cookman* - The last AQ. The MEAC will be decided on 10/27 against NCCU.
The 20 teams above are my early picks for the playoffs (again, ranked by probability of getting in).
Work to Do Can get in with a strong run down the stretch.
21) Eastern Kentucky - TSU loss hurts the OVC. But they can stil win out and get to 9-2.
22) Appalachian State - Probably need to win out, which includes a game at Georgia Southern.
23) Illinois State - After the bad loss to Missouri State, they need to win 2 of 3 (@UNI, @Ind St, NDSU).
24) James Madison - Lost a winnable game against Richmond, and close with Villanova & ODU.
25) Southern Illinois - Still probably need to win out, and the schedule gets tougher.
26) Tennessee Martin - Need to beat TSU to have a shot. Three OVC teams are not getting in.
27) Lafayette - Need to win 3 of 4 to be considerd, have to win out to get in for certain.
28) Delaware - Need to win 3 of 4 to get to 7 D-I wins (@ODU, Tow, @Rich, Vill). I don't see it.
29) North Carolina Central - If they win the 10/27 game against BC, they take the MEAC.
Back Against the Wall No room for error, and probably need a little luck.
30) Youngstown State - They need to win out at this point, which looks unlikely after losing 3 straight.
31) McNeese State - Need to win out to get to 7 D-I wins.
32) Sacramento State - Tough remaining schedule continues, probably need to win out.
33) Citadel - The 3 game losing streak hurt, but a 5 game winning streak would garner attention.
34) Liberty - They can still win out and steal the AQ from Stony Brook.
Alive But Unlikely
35) Towson - Brutal schedule continues. One more loss, and they are out.
36) Eastern Illinois - They can get to 7 D-I wins, but I don't see a 7-4 OVC team getting in.
37) Colgate - Still alive for the Patriot AQ, but I don't think they can beat Lehigh.
38) Duquesne - Still alive to take the NEC AQ if they beat Albany.
39) Wagner - Alive for the NEC AQ, but already lost to Monmouth.
40) Coastal Carolina - They could win out and get to 7-4. But no way this team gets in.
41 & 42) Delaware State & Howard - Alive for the MEAC, but they won't win it.
43) Southeastern Louisiana - They got lucky against McNeese to stay undefeated in the Southland, but no way they beat Central Arkansas and Sam Houston State in back to back weeks.
Notable gains this week: Ind St (+12), UNH (+10), ODU (+8), SHSU (+8), SIU (+8), Wof (+7), Rich (+6).
Notable drops this week: Ill St (-17), JMU (-11), TSU (-8), SDSU (-8).
LOCKS
1) Lehigh* - Up to 8-0 (all D-I wins). Look to be best of Patriot.
2) Stony Brook* - Easy remaining schedule. 9 or 10 wins not a problem.
3) Cal Poly - Have 7 D-I wins now. With a game remaining against ISU, they're in.
4) North Dakota State* - Back to normal this week. No doubts at this point.
5) New Hampshire* - Should win their final 3 games, favorable schedule.
6) Old Dominion - Two very easy games still on the schedule will get them to 8 wins at least.
7) Northern Arizona* - Looking strong. Host CP in last game of the season. Big Sky title game?
8) Albany* - Hopefully Duquesne or Wagner don't spoil this one team league AQ.
Virtual Locks
9) Tennessee State* - Have 7 D-I wins already. Dropped game against Jacksonville State, but still okay.
10) Central Arkansas* - They should win out. They need to win 2 out of 3 though to get to 7 D-I wins.
11) Georgia Southern* - Beat Chattanooga and Howard and they're in.
12) Eastern Washington - Only need to win 2 of their last 4 to get in.
13) Montana State - Only need to win 2 of their last 4 to get in.
14) Wofford - Should be able to win 2 of their next 3 before final game against South Carolina.
15) Sam Houston - Dominating win against McNeese. Need to win their next 3, but all easy games.
16) Villanova - No easy games of their last three, but only need 2 of 3 to be in for certain.
Looking Good
17) Indiana State - Only need to win 2 of their last three to get in.
18) Richmond - Got the win they needed against JMU, still probably need to win out (definitely possible).
19) South Dakota State - Tough loss to UNI could be costly. Probably need to win 3 of their last 4.
20) Bethune Cookman* - The last AQ. The MEAC will be decided on 10/27 against NCCU.
The 20 teams above are my early picks for the playoffs (again, ranked by probability of getting in).
Work to Do Can get in with a strong run down the stretch.
21) Eastern Kentucky - TSU loss hurts the OVC. But they can stil win out and get to 9-2.
22) Appalachian State - Probably need to win out, which includes a game at Georgia Southern.
23) Illinois State - After the bad loss to Missouri State, they need to win 2 of 3 (@UNI, @Ind St, NDSU).
24) James Madison - Lost a winnable game against Richmond, and close with Villanova & ODU.
25) Southern Illinois - Still probably need to win out, and the schedule gets tougher.
26) Tennessee Martin - Need to beat TSU to have a shot. Three OVC teams are not getting in.
27) Lafayette - Need to win 3 of 4 to be considerd, have to win out to get in for certain.
28) Delaware - Need to win 3 of 4 to get to 7 D-I wins (@ODU, Tow, @Rich, Vill). I don't see it.
29) North Carolina Central - If they win the 10/27 game against BC, they take the MEAC.
Back Against the Wall No room for error, and probably need a little luck.
30) Youngstown State - They need to win out at this point, which looks unlikely after losing 3 straight.
31) McNeese State - Need to win out to get to 7 D-I wins.
32) Sacramento State - Tough remaining schedule continues, probably need to win out.
33) Citadel - The 3 game losing streak hurt, but a 5 game winning streak would garner attention.
34) Liberty - They can still win out and steal the AQ from Stony Brook.
Alive But Unlikely
35) Towson - Brutal schedule continues. One more loss, and they are out.
36) Eastern Illinois - They can get to 7 D-I wins, but I don't see a 7-4 OVC team getting in.
37) Colgate - Still alive for the Patriot AQ, but I don't think they can beat Lehigh.
38) Duquesne - Still alive to take the NEC AQ if they beat Albany.
39) Wagner - Alive for the NEC AQ, but already lost to Monmouth.
40) Coastal Carolina - They could win out and get to 7-4. But no way this team gets in.
41 & 42) Delaware State & Howard - Alive for the MEAC, but they won't win it.
43) Southeastern Louisiana - They got lucky against McNeese to stay undefeated in the Southland, but no way they beat Central Arkansas and Sam Houston State in back to back weeks.
