Alright, a little tweak this week. I added the GPI ranking [xx]. Right now I'm thinking some 8-3 teams will be left out this year. Maybe even a 9-2 team. It depends on whether the committee goes on CAA historical power/bias, or if they utilize the GPI per the methodology instructed.
LOCKS
1) Central Arkansas* [10] (8-2) - Southland Automatic Qualifier.
2) North Dakota State* [1] (8-1) - Playoff Bound.
3) Montana State [3] (8-1) - Playoff Bound.
4) Northern Arizona* [6] (8-1) - Playoff Bound.
5) Stony Brook* [11] (9-1) - Playoff Bound.
6) Old Dominion [13] (8-1) - Playoff Bound.
7) Illinois State [7] (8-2) - Playoff Bound.
Virtual Locks
8) Sam Houston [2] (7-2) - Still on a big roll. They should beat NW State to get 7 D-I wins.
9) Eastern Washington [4] (7-2) - Win one of two and they're definitely in.
10) Georgia Southern [5] (7-2) - Tough ASU loss. Should get W over Howard.
11) Bethune Cookman* [38] (7-2) - The MEAC is theirs to lose. (@Sav St, FAMU)
Looking Good
12) Appalachian State* [14] (7-3) - Big win against GSU. Beat Furman and they'll be in.
13) Tennessee Martin* [17] (7-2) - Control their destiny to take the OVC AQ.
14) Lehigh* [36] (9-0) - Barely got by Holy Cross. Colgate next week will be interesting.
15) Wagner* [54] (6-3) - Big win over Albany has them in control of their destiny for the AQ.
On the Good Side of the Bubble
16) South Dakota State [9] (7-2) - One of the playoff spots may come down to SDSU or Indiana State.
17) Wofford [15] (7-2) - Dropped game against Samford, but beat Chattanooga and still should be okay.
18) New Hampshire* [24] (8-2) - Shaky GPI means UNH needs to beat Towson to feel confident.
19) James Madison [20] (7-2) - Tough final two games. A split probably gets them in. (@Vil, ODU)
20) Indiana State [8] (7-3) - Tough loss to Ill State. For now, I have them in. It's a small bubble though.
The 20 teams above are my picks for the playoffs (again, ranked by probability of getting in).
On the Bad Side of the Bubble
21) Cal Poly [12] (7-2) - On the slide in the polls. May need to win out to feel confident.
22) Richmond [29] (6-3) - End with two winnable games, and could get in. (Del, @W&M)
23) Villanova [35] (6-3) - Likely need to win out to get in, could be tough. (JMU, @Del)
24) McNeese State [22] (6-3) - Need to win out to get to 7 D-I wins. (@UTSA, Lamar)
25) Towson [21] (5-4) - On fire. Still, one more loss and they are done. (URI, @UNH)
26) Eastern Illinois [18] (6-3) - Have snuck in as possible OVC AQ. Strong GPI as well.
27) Eastern Kentucky [25] (7-3) - Decent GPI keeps them in the running if they win their last game.
Work to Do Can get in with a strong run down the stretch.
28) Colgate [48] (6-3) - Beat Lehigh next week, and they get the Patriot AQ.
Back Against the Wall No room for error, and probably need a little luck.
29) Tennessee State [31] (8-2) - Really on the slide. Need to beat Tenn-Mart for consideration.
30) Albany [44] (7-2) - Loss to Wagner is costly. Have to win out and hope.
Alive But Unlikely
31) Youngstown State [27] (5-4) - They need to win out just to get to 7 D-I wins.
32) Sacramento State [34] (6-4) - Probably won't get in at 7-4.
33) Samford [28] (6-3) - Technically, still alive. But would need to beat Kentucky.
34) The Citadel [42] (5-4) - Can get to 7 D-I wins, but it doesn't matter.
35) Coastal Carolina [44] (5-4) - Can get to 7 D-I wins, but it doesn't matter.
LOCKS
1) Central Arkansas* [10] (8-2) - Southland Automatic Qualifier.
2) North Dakota State* [1] (8-1) - Playoff Bound.
3) Montana State [3] (8-1) - Playoff Bound.
4) Northern Arizona* [6] (8-1) - Playoff Bound.
5) Stony Brook* [11] (9-1) - Playoff Bound.
6) Old Dominion [13] (8-1) - Playoff Bound.
7) Illinois State [7] (8-2) - Playoff Bound.
Virtual Locks
8) Sam Houston [2] (7-2) - Still on a big roll. They should beat NW State to get 7 D-I wins.
9) Eastern Washington [4] (7-2) - Win one of two and they're definitely in.
10) Georgia Southern [5] (7-2) - Tough ASU loss. Should get W over Howard.
11) Bethune Cookman* [38] (7-2) - The MEAC is theirs to lose. (@Sav St, FAMU)
Looking Good
12) Appalachian State* [14] (7-3) - Big win against GSU. Beat Furman and they'll be in.
13) Tennessee Martin* [17] (7-2) - Control their destiny to take the OVC AQ.
14) Lehigh* [36] (9-0) - Barely got by Holy Cross. Colgate next week will be interesting.
15) Wagner* [54] (6-3) - Big win over Albany has them in control of their destiny for the AQ.
On the Good Side of the Bubble
16) South Dakota State [9] (7-2) - One of the playoff spots may come down to SDSU or Indiana State.
17) Wofford [15] (7-2) - Dropped game against Samford, but beat Chattanooga and still should be okay.
18) New Hampshire* [24] (8-2) - Shaky GPI means UNH needs to beat Towson to feel confident.
19) James Madison [20] (7-2) - Tough final two games. A split probably gets them in. (@Vil, ODU)
20) Indiana State [8] (7-3) - Tough loss to Ill State. For now, I have them in. It's a small bubble though.
The 20 teams above are my picks for the playoffs (again, ranked by probability of getting in).
On the Bad Side of the Bubble
21) Cal Poly [12] (7-2) - On the slide in the polls. May need to win out to feel confident.
22) Richmond [29] (6-3) - End with two winnable games, and could get in. (Del, @W&M)
23) Villanova [35] (6-3) - Likely need to win out to get in, could be tough. (JMU, @Del)
24) McNeese State [22] (6-3) - Need to win out to get to 7 D-I wins. (@UTSA, Lamar)
25) Towson [21] (5-4) - On fire. Still, one more loss and they are done. (URI, @UNH)
26) Eastern Illinois [18] (6-3) - Have snuck in as possible OVC AQ. Strong GPI as well.
27) Eastern Kentucky [25] (7-3) - Decent GPI keeps them in the running if they win their last game.
Work to Do Can get in with a strong run down the stretch.
28) Colgate [48] (6-3) - Beat Lehigh next week, and they get the Patriot AQ.
Back Against the Wall No room for error, and probably need a little luck.
29) Tennessee State [31] (8-2) - Really on the slide. Need to beat Tenn-Mart for consideration.
30) Albany [44] (7-2) - Loss to Wagner is costly. Have to win out and hope.
Alive But Unlikely
31) Youngstown State [27] (5-4) - They need to win out just to get to 7 D-I wins.
32) Sacramento State [34] (6-4) - Probably won't get in at 7-4.
33) Samford [28] (6-3) - Technically, still alive. But would need to beat Kentucky.
34) The Citadel [42] (5-4) - Can get to 7 D-I wins, but it doesn't matter.
35) Coastal Carolina [44] (5-4) - Can get to 7 D-I wins, but it doesn't matter.
