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FCS Playoff Race - Nov 12th

Montana Gym Rat

Montana Gym Rat

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The Sports Network and Coaches Polls haven't been released, so I took a guess at them to come up with GPI [xx]. Thirteen spots appear to be spoken for right now, so that leaves 7 spots for about 19 teams. Once the CAA AQ is figured out, that will leave 6 spots for 18 teams.

LOCKS
1) Central Arkansas* [8] (8-2) - Southland Automatic Qualifier.
2) Eastern Illinois* [16] (6-3) - OVC Automatic Qualifier.
3) Bethune Cookman* [38] (8-2) - MEAC Automatic Qualifier.
4) Colgate* [45] (7-3) - Patriot Automatic Qualifier
5) North Dakota State* [1] (9-1) - Playoff Bound.
6) Montana State* [2] (9-1) - Playoff Bound.
7) Old Dominion [11] (9-1) - Playoff Bound.
8) Sam Houston [3] (8-2) - Playoff Bound.
9) Eastern Washington [4] (8-2) - Playoff Bound.
10) Georgia Southern [5] (8-2) - Playoff Bound.
11) Appalachian State* [12] (8-3) - Playoff Bound.

Looking Good
12) Wagner* [54] (7-3) - Win over Duquesne clinches the NEC AQ.
13) Coastal Carolina* [40] (6-4) - Beat Charleston Southern, and they get the AQ if Liberty beats VMI.

On the Good Side of the Bubble
14) New Hampshire* [19] (8-2) - Towson is on fire. Win and in, but lose and right onto the bubble.
15) Illinois State [6] (8-2) - Finish with NDSU. Even with a loss, they look to be okay.
16) Wofford [14] (8-2) - OT win over Chattanooga was badly needed. Finish with South Carolina.
17) Northern Arizona [13] (8-2) - Another loss to CP may cost them a playoff spot.
18) Stony Brook [23] (9-2) - Loss to Liberty may have cost them. Liberty loss to VMI gives SB the AQ.
19) Indiana State [7] (7-3) - Finish with YSU. I expect the win, and they'll have a great GPI.
20) Villanova [22] (7-3) - Big win over JMU will help in the polls. Close with Delaware.

The 20 teams above are my picks for the playoffs (again, ranked by probability of getting in).

On the Bad Side of the Bubble
21) Cal Poly [10] (8-2) - I'm starting to think that the loser of NAU/CP may not get in.
22) South Dakota State [9] (7-3) - Should end up at 8-3 with South Dakota next week.
23) Eastern Kentucky [15] (8-3) - Finished up at 8-3. Now to wait and see if they did enough.
24) Lehigh [42] (9-1) - With a really poor GPI, do they deserve an at-large spot?
25) Richmond [24] (7-3) - Have a winnable game to close with, but will they have a good enough GPI?
26) James Madison [27] (7-3) - Finish with ODU. A win over the #4 team would be a big boost.
27) Towson [18] (6-4) - A win against UNH may be enough to get Towson in at 7-4.
28) Youngstown State [21] (6-4) - Thanks to the strength of the MVC, they would be considered at 7-4.
29) Tennessee State [29] (8-2) - Really on the slide. Need to beat Tenn-Mart for consideration.
30) Samford [26] (7-3) - A season ending win against Kentucky would be tough to ignore.
31) Tennessee Martin [25] (7-3) - Loss to TTU probably cost them a playoff spot.
32) Albany [43] (8-2) - They need to win, and have Wagner lose to get in with the AQ.

Back Against the Wall No room for error, and probably need a little luck.
31) Liberty [60] (5-5) - Need Coastal Carolina to lose, and beat VMI to get the AQ.

Alive But Unlikely
32) Sacramento State [31] (6-4) - Probably won't have a strong enough GPI to get consideration.
33) The Citadel [41] (6-4) - Weak GPI, so probably won't make the discussion.
 
Looks good, thanks for the research and analysis. Though, I'm not sold on Sam Houston State being a lock yet.

They will be 7-3 D-I after they get embarrassed next week at Texas A&M. Also, this year the Southland seems weaker than it's traditional mid-to-almost-power conference status. SHSU's only win outside the Southland (and Incarnate Word)...over a 2-8 SWAC team (Texas Southern). Their best win will be against (6-4) McNeese State (btw, also their only win this year over a team with a winning record).

Just for comparison:
Even with a loss to NAU this next week, Cal Poly will end up with an 8-3 record against all D-I opponents which also includes an FBS win and no worse than tied for 2nd in a much larger, more revered, and more difficult conference. A negative being they will have lost 3 of their last 4 games. Also, admittedly, Cal Poly's wins weren't extremely impressive either, but I would still say Wyoming, North Dakota, and UC Davis are all on par or better than McNeese this year.

Now, if NAU losses this next week, their resume is even weaker because it includes a Fort Lewis win. So, that would make them 7-3 D-I, as well. Once again, though, they have a FBS win. Negatively, it would mean they ended with a 2 game losing streak and also their best win would be Montana and/or North Dakota, both who have 5-5 records currently (though, UND plays UNC this next week).

I would personally take Cal Poly, NAU, South Dakota State (8-3 all D-I, power conf), Richmond (even losing to W&M they would be 7-4 but will be 8-3, all D-I, power conf, quality wins over Nova, JMU, Delaware), or even maybe James Madison (7-4 if lose to ODU, but all D-I sched. and power conf) before SHSU.

That all being said, I think you will probably be right and SHSU will make the playoffs anyways because the committee will want to spread the wealth to the different conferences and regionalization may play a part, as well.
 
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