CDAGRIZ said:
Kinda the way I lean as well. If the concern is that you don't have a chance at the NC if you move up, why don't you just move down to DII so you can win 40 in a row? The response is often something like: "Because there isn't as much money in DII and the level of competition is lower." Hmmmmm. On the right track.
Makes you wonder how many schools will use COVID as an reason (excuse?) to drop football altogether. You can be fairly high in the pecking order and still lose a lot of money. (Remember all the stories about programs that lost money going to a bowl game?) Of course, many schools basically write off the cost as part of their recruitment budget. And there have been just enough success stories to make that seem like a credible approach. But that will only carry you so far.
FWIW: Those specific numbers made me curious, especially basketball. Have to quibble a bit with that. Since 2000, twenty-four teams have played for (“had a shot at”) the NCAA basketball championship. With over 350 D-I programs involved, that works out to almost 7%. Of course, that means 93% did
not get a shot during that period. So your main point is absolutely valid: The vast majority will never have a shot at the national title. Most people know that, but still like the excitement when a “Cinderella” shows up for awhile.
I got a bit of a surprise when I looked at the numbers for FBS football. That looks better, IF you go all the way back to 2000. Back then, you may recall, they selected two teams for the final “national championship” game using polls and computer rankings. With those included, fifteen teams had a shot at a national championship, which works out to 11.5%. Not bad, right? However, you’re exactly right for the period since they went to their “improved” four-team format. Just six teams have played for that so-called national championship. That works out to 4.6%, leaving over 95% that had no chance.
