Well as I sit on my couch still on the mend from a nasty little virus passed on to me from my daughter I figured while I am without a voice tonight, I sure as hell can type. The final fall camp practice is going to get underway in a little over an hour but I figured now is a great time to get my final thoughts on the 2012 Griz as they break camp after tonight.
Over the last week I've had a lot of people ask me, "Will we even field a team?" Or the common, "What do you think our record will be?" I've been stewing on this and have been saying this for a bit now but I see this team being somewhere between a 7-4 to 9-2 team in the regular season. I base that upon what I see out of this group and with what I believe we'll see as the season shakes out. The Griz have 7 games where they should be favored and 4 where they either won't be or it'll be a toss up (the four IMO would be App, EWU, SUU, and MSU). Two of those 4 are at home. I believe that if this team can take care of business in those other 7 games they should be looking for some sort of split between these other 4 games and I leaned to the more conservative side of them winning 0, 1, or just 2 of those 4 games... hence 7-4 to 9-2.
As always great summary Brint---REALLY looking forward to your scouting reports this Fall! This team needs to fire out of the blocks mean, nasty, and focused!
GO GRIZ!
So why do I think this team will be another winning team that gets to the post season? It's easy when you see it on the field. This group of men is unlike a Griz team I've seen recently, these men are serious competitors and have practiced and competed against each other harder than I've ever seen in this fall camp. That edge, the passion, and the intensity will carry over onto the field. This team will play MEAN. This team will hit HARD. And this team will not quit. These guys have been through so much that a loss on the field or a setback due to injury will not phase these young men at it would have in years past. These Grizzlies have a chip on their shoulder and that passion will be fueled even more as they hit the field and hear the fans out there to support them. Passion doesn't win games tough, execution of the playbook and superior skill against the opponent is what will get it done. This team has it and they need to continue to believe in themselves as they progress. There's good top-end leadership on this team and these leaders like Jordan Tripp, Dan Moore, Sam Gratton, Alex Bienemann, Matt Hermanson, and Greg Hardy will need to continue to lead by example on and off the field.
I predict the offense will not start very pretty, much like last year did. The system will gradually expand as Trent McKinney becomes more and more comfortable in his role as the starting QB. September into mid October could see some narrow wins and maybe a frustrating loss or two. However I think Trent has a stable of weapons to use, he's got Hardy, Haas, Hagfors, and Pierson at TE, he'll use Gratton, Warren, and Berland in the slot, and he's got possession WRs in Kemp and Saylor and legit deep threats in Haynes, Carver, and Henderson. Out of the backfield we've got Pete who is the best pass-catching and YAC running backs in the Big Sky, Dan Moore the bruiser, and Jordan Canada who has vastly improved in his pass catching as well as his reading the zone block from the OL. Trent himself is a very shifty runner, his passing is crisp and on-target in the short game but as the season wears on he'll need to expand his passing game as we saw Jordan Johnson do last year. Additionally Adam Brzczeck and Shay Smithwick-Hann need to keep improving as it's still true that a spread team needs 2 QBs almost every season. Our front 5 Olinemen are solid, the backups are not. It will be imperative that the backups get time rotated in to build experience and cohesiveness on the field. Of the backups only Schmaing and Kalekini right now strike me as guys I'm comfortable with seeing come in off the bench.
On the other side of the ball I have confidence that this defense will surprise many fans who are leery about what they'll see after we saw 9 starters graduate. Of the projected starting 11 all but one guy (Nate Harris) played last year, significantly. This group is fresh with starts but experienced with time on the field. Behind a vastly improved Bo Tully and Matt Hermanson who looks like the true "QB" of the defense this group will defend well by hitting hard and through solid tackling. Our D-line has 7, possibly 8 guys that can come in and play almost every down, and we've got the best group of linebackers from top to bottom in the Big Sky. Assuming a healthy season I think Jordan Tripp makes a serious run at the Buck Buchanan award, eclipses triple-digit tackles and could lead the team in forced turnovers. We've got 3 solid corners in Murray, Harris, and Goodwin, with Dennard and even Nelson showing signs of being capable backups. This defense is very smart, you see very few errors from this group. Additionally I think a lot of you are going to love the wrinkles coach Ty has in store, while Breske's D was relentless, Gregorak's features so many tricks and wrinkles. You'll see OLBs line up as DEs, or drop back as a 3rd safety/DB, you'll see DE's drop into coverage, corner blitzes, and safety blitzes. This defense could frustrate opponents more this year than last year. I project we'll see a higher turnover margin this season thanks to this however I'd also bet that this defense does give up a little more points per game and yards per game than last years.
Special teams will be interesting. Shaw can punt the air out of the ball but his punting motion is a little slow. Lider and Greenberg have strong legs but they're young and unproven. I think our return game with Nguyen, Henderson, and maybe Naccarato could be exciting. I predict some growing pains with ST however I think both Lider and Greenberg look better as freshman than our prior kickers did as freshmen - it won't be stunning, but it won't be as bad as other years with freshman kickers.
I'm not without concerns, obviously breaking in a new QB is always unknown, the OL depth as I'd mentioned is a worry. There is an unknown level of efficiency in our kicking game in a season which would suggest they'll be called on a lot. The offense needs to keep improving its consistency in the red zone and the defensive line needs to have more than just Tyrone Holmes getting to the QB b/c he won't be playing much except in passing downs. With the coaches, we've got a new "top 3" at their position, that could be a source of frustration as well. All of these things are up in the air and can be minimalized - but we'll just have to see how the team handles it.
This season will presumably be a little painful at times, but I see it as one that'll be wildly fun as well. We've got a fiercely competitive conference and some upstart neighbors going both ways down I-90. This Griz team will leave it all out on the field and I know these guys cannot wait to get out there and hit someone, score a TD, hear the crowd yell, and take one more step to putting this tumultuous off-season behind them.
The PRIDE and the TRADITION of the University of Montana lives within these young men and I believe that this team will win games and will get to the post-season, if not even win a share of the Big Sky. I can't wait for kickoff next Saturday, GO GRIZ!
