Unwrittengriz said:
Syracuse outscored opponents by nearly 25 points per 100 possessions while playing in the second-strongest conference in the country. Montana outscored opponents by 1.9 points per 100 possessions while playing in the 27th-strongest conference in the country. (Read those last two sentences again.) They're not just a Killer lacking a second shot, they're a mediocre team.
This is incorrect. Not sure if Brenner and Keating are too lazy to elaborate more or don't understand their own metrics. Actually, the fact that they cite strength of schedule and points per possession in the same context means they don't understand their own metrics.
Syracuse does not beat opponents by 25 points per 100 possessions. In Big East play, they beat teams by 7 points per 100 possessions.
Montana does not beat opponents by 1.9 points per 100 possessions. In Big Sky play, Montana beat teams by 13 points per 100 possessions. In fact, if we only beat teams by that average, we'd play every game averaging winning by 1 point, a feat that is impossible for a 25-6 team.
Now when you
adjust efficiency rankings based on SOS, then you come to their numbers. But to say Syracuse beats teams by 25 points per 100 possessions
while playing in the second-strongest conference is incorrect, because they only beat teams by 7 points per 100 possessions.
That's kind of the beauty of March Madness. The underdog has efficient numbers for their weak conference. The question becomes, can they be just as efficient against the big boys? Probably not, but under the right game plan and execution, maybe.