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ESPN gives us no shot, calls the Griz mediocre

Unwrittengriz

Well-known member
DONOR
From the Giant Killer's prediction center - on the Insider page on ESPN.com

STAY AWAY

No. 4 Syracuse Orange (92.1) No. 13 Montana Grizzlies (4.6)

Upset chance: 4.6 percent

What's this? Montana has already become something of a trendy upset pick? How many ways do you want us to take apart that silly idea? First, while Syracuse isn't quite as strong as the squad that earned a No. 1 seed last season, it's built according to the same basic blueprint. Offensively, the Orange are highly efficient, scoring 114.2 points per 100 possessions, because they're monsters on the offensive glass (ORs on 39.8 percent of missed shots, fifth-most in the NCAA) and their 2-point shooting and turnover rate rank in the top third of the country.

On defense, Syracuse doesn't collect many rebounds, but who cares? The 2-3 zone has enabled the Orange to rank 10th in the country in steals (13.5 percent of opponent possessions) and 24th in turnovers (23.4 percent). They don't rely on free throws, and they've played Killer-like nonconference opponents for target practice. They're not only a very good team, they're a Giant wearing a bulletproof vest.

As for Montana, if you don't even attempt to grab offensive rebounds (25.1 OR percentage, 335th in the NCAA), you had better be trying to cook up some other recipe for adding possessions to your column, but the Grizzlies also force very few turnovers (18.5 TO percentage, ranking 253rd). Maybe you don't need extra possessions when you're playing the 283rd-strongest schedule in the country -- quick, where is Minot State? What about Carroll College? -- but trust us, a few more balls in hand would be handy in the NCAA tournament.

We will stipulate that Kareem Jamar is an exciting player who can post up or shoot from behind the arc, and that the Grizzlies have no fewer than four players shooting 40 percent or better on 3-pointers (in 55 to 93 attempts apiece). But come on. Syracuse outscored opponents by nearly 25 points per 100 possessions while playing in the second-strongest conference in the country. Montana outscored opponents by 1.9 points per 100 possessions while playing in the 27th-strongest conference in the country. (Read those last two sentences again.) They're not just a Killer lacking a second shot, they're a mediocre team.
 
Wow. Harsh.

Certainly a lot of truth in what they're saying. But to call Montana "mediocre" is patently untrue, and is just more of the same from ESPN, where the Power Conferences equal college athletics, and the other guys are simply fill material for the occasional "Top 10 Plays" if there aren't enough dunks in the NBA that day.
 
while that was pretty harsh i tend to agree with him. i think this was a terrible draw for the griz and i'd be really surprised if this game was with 15 or so. just think that even as a 13 seed you guys could have gotten a better draw like maybe st louis. although i think they are very good too...
 
ilovethecats said:
while that was pretty harsh i tend to agree with him. i think this was a terrible draw for the griz and i'd be really surprised if this game was with 15 or so. just think that even as a 13 seed you guys could have gotten a better draw like maybe st louis. although i think they are very good too...


I agree. In fact when they put up the Cuse as a 4 on the top line, I said outloud, "Uh oh, this is gonna be us". I don't like the draw against Syracuse. At all.
 
EverettGriz said:
ilovethecats said:
while that was pretty harsh i tend to agree with him. i think this was a terrible draw for the griz and i'd be really surprised if this game was with 15 or so. just think that even as a 13 seed you guys could have gotten a better draw like maybe st louis. although i think they are very good too...


I agree. In fact when they put up the Cuse as a 4 on the top line, I said outloud, "Uh oh, this is gonna be us". I don't like the draw against Syracuse. At all.

i honestly think in regards to the top teams you could have faced you would have been best off being a 14 seed and playing marquette. obviously still a VERY difficult task to win but i would have like that matchup better for you.

i'll tell you one thing. worrying about how we matchup to opponents in march madness is something i wish i could do soon.... :cry:
 
ilovethecats said:
EverettGriz said:
ilovethecats said:
while that was pretty harsh i tend to agree with him. i think this was a terrible draw for the griz and i'd be really surprised if this game was with 15 or so. just think that even as a 13 seed you guys could have gotten a better draw like maybe st louis. although i think they are very good too...


I agree. In fact when they put up the Cuse as a 4 on the top line, I said outloud, "Uh oh, this is gonna be us". I don't like the draw against Syracuse. At all.

i honestly think in regards to the top teams you could have faced you would have been best off being a 14 seed and playing marquette. obviously still a VERY difficult task to win but i would have like that matchup better for you.

i'll tell you one thing. worrying about how we matchup to opponents in march madness is something i wish i could do soon.... :cry:

Truth
 
ESPN can call your team mediocre all they want. But Boeheim won't. He'll take the Grizzlies seriously. SU had a very tough last month of the season, but played good basketball in the BE tourney (the eventual collapse versus L'ville notwithstanding) and appear to look like themselves again.

Expect the Orange to hit the floor playing very hard. If Montana springs the upset, it won't be because Syracuse overlooked them. It will be because the Grizzlies outplay them.
 
Unwrittengriz said:
Syracuse outscored opponents by nearly 25 points per 100 possessions while playing in the second-strongest conference in the country. Montana outscored opponents by 1.9 points per 100 possessions while playing in the 27th-strongest conference in the country. (Read those last two sentences again.) They're not just a Killer lacking a second shot, they're a mediocre team.

This is incorrect. Not sure if Brenner and Keating are too lazy to elaborate more or don't understand their own metrics. Actually, the fact that they cite strength of schedule and points per possession in the same context means they don't understand their own metrics.

Syracuse does not beat opponents by 25 points per 100 possessions. In Big East play, they beat teams by 7 points per 100 possessions.

Montana does not beat opponents by 1.9 points per 100 possessions. In Big Sky play, Montana beat teams by 13 points per 100 possessions. In fact, if we only beat teams by that average, we'd play every game averaging winning by 1 point, a feat that is impossible for a 25-6 team.

Now when you adjust efficiency rankings based on SOS, then you come to their numbers. But to say Syracuse beats teams by 25 points per 100 possessions while playing in the second-strongest conference is incorrect, because they only beat teams by 7 points per 100 possessions.

That's kind of the beauty of March Madness. The underdog has efficient numbers for their weak conference. The question becomes, can they be just as efficient against the big boys? Probably not, but under the right game plan and execution, maybe.
 
Uhhhh what'd you expect ESPN to call Montana? Good? Lulz Montana comes out of a conference where there were only two teams that had overall winning records. You don't get much respect when that happens. Not to mention that Montana lost the majority of their non-conference sched, except for beating the mighty Idahos, San Diegos.
 
Word said:
Unwrittengriz said:
Syracuse outscored opponents by nearly 25 points per 100 possessions while playing in the second-strongest conference in the country. Montana outscored opponents by 1.9 points per 100 possessions while playing in the 27th-strongest conference in the country. (Read those last two sentences again.) They're not just a Killer lacking a second shot, they're a mediocre team.

This is incorrect. Not sure if Brenner and Keating are too lazy to elaborate more or don't understand their own metrics. Actually, the fact that they cite strength of schedule and points per possession in the same context means they don't understand their own metrics.

Syracuse does not beat opponents by 25 points per 100 possessions. In Big East play, they beat teams by 7 points per 100 possessions.

Montana does not beat opponents by 1.9 points per 100 possessions. In Big Sky play, Montana beat teams by 13 points per 100 possessions. In fact, if we only beat teams by that average, we'd play every game averaging winning by 1 point, a feat that is impossible for a 25-6 team.

Now when you adjust efficiency rankings based on SOS, then you come to their numbers. But to say Syracuse beats teams by 25 points per 100 possessions while playing in the second-strongest conference is incorrect, because they only beat teams by 7 points per 100 possessions.

That's kind of the beauty of March Madness. The underdog has efficient numbers for their weak conference. The question becomes, can they be just as efficient against the big boys? Probably not, but under the right game plan and execution, maybe.

you need to post more. i have read your last two in regards to your game friday and your stats backing up what you say are just awesome. appreciate it. :thumb:
 
DCOrange said:
ESPN can call your team mediocre all they want. But Boeheim won't. He'll take the Grizzlies seriously. SU had a very tough last month of the season, but played good basketball in the BE tourney (the eventual collapse versus L'ville notwithstanding) and appear to look like themselves again.

Expect the Orange to hit the floor playing very hard. If Montana springs the upset, it won't be because Syracuse overlooked them. It will be because the Grizzlies outplay them.


Thanks for the post DCO--welcome to egriz! :thumb:
 
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