The Griz are headed to Cheney and the inferno where they’ve not yet won a game on the red turf. This week I’m in New Orleans myself at the National Association of Realtor’s Convention. A wrench in my scouting report plans has been a nasty case of the norovirus that’s had me down for the count for the last 36 hours. However I’m on the mend and anxious to get talking about this game which now has two key twists in it, with both teams QB’s being an unknown for the game. Vernon Adams, the best player in the Big Sky, is questionable returning from a broken bone in his foot and has missed the last 4 weeks. Meanwhile Jordan Johnson has missed practice with what’s rumored to be a re-occurrence of his prior ankle injury.
Let’s get to it:
Eastern Washington Eagles: 8-2
56-35 win over Sam Houston State: In a nationally televised game Eastern’s offense got rolling fairly quickly and probably could’ve scored even more points if not for a few early drops on big pass plays. The game was tied 21-21 at the half, EWU grabbed the lead on a TD in the 3rd quarter and never gave it back, they opened the lead up to 42-28, SHSU closed it to 42-35 with 5:00 to go in the game but EWU scored two more TDs after that – the last one being argued as rather unnecessary – with 31 seconds left. On the other hand that could’ve been EWU answering back to a moment where the SHSU coaches called out Vernon Adam’s visor on a 1st and goal forcing him to go to the sideline to have it removed or altered, it brought in Jordan West who promptly tossed a TD. EWU piled up 624 yards of total offense; 307 passing and 317 rushing. Their defense gave up 542 total yards, 225 rushing and 317 passing. EWU controlled the clock with over 35:00 TOP and held SHSU to 8 of 18 on 3rd down while EWU went 15 of 22 on 3rd down themselves.
41-9 win over UM-Western: I would bet EWU approached this game the same way the Griz did against Oklahoma Panhandle. EWU didn’t light it up but knew they really didn’t need to. Almost 420 passing yards for EWU on the day, they forced 3 turnovers but lost 3 fumbles themselves as well.
59-52 loss vs Washington: I watched the first 3 quarters of this game, it opened real bad for EWU, falling behind 21-0 just 7 ½ minutes into the game, aided by a fumble on one drive and a 3 and out on another. Then EWU woke up, storming back on some impressive TD catches by Cooper Kupp. At the half UW’s lead was down to 6 with the score being 37-31. In the 3rd EWU took the lead on a TD, UW took it back with a score of their own, and then EWU answered with another TD, now 45-44 headed into the 4th. In the 4th quarter EWU’s luck ran out. After allowing UW to get the lead on another TD, a fumble deep in UW’s territory killed an Eastern drive, UW turned that into a score on a long and drawn out drive, making it 59-45 with 7:00 to go in the game. EWU got a score to get to 52 with 3:00 left but couldn’t get the on-sides kick and UW converted a few 1st downs to run out the clock. 475 passing yards and 7 TDs for Vernon Adams… wow. UW made their yards on the ground, 356 rushing yards and just 180 passing.
52-51 win vs Montana State: Another insane shootout, while Griz fans were pulling their hair out in the agonizing UND win this shootout came down to the wire. MSU built up a little bit of an early lead, up 23-14 at the end of the 1st. EWU grabbed the lead with 14 unanswered in the 2nd and then MSU put on a Prukop TD to take a 30-27 lead into the half. In the 3rd each team traded scores, although MSU held EWU to a fieldgoal once. At the start of the 4th EWU stopped MSU on their own 34 on a turnover on downs, that lead to another EWU TD that tied the game at 44. With the ball back MSU got to the EWU 35 but again was turned over on downs, the cats redeemed that loss by recovering a fumble with 5:30 left in the game. MSU went down the field and scored a TD with 1:55 left to grab a 51-44 lead. EWU picked up a 4th and 10 on a 40 yard pass to keep their next drive alive and scored a TD with 30 seconds left in the game. On a rather gutsy call they went for the 2 point conversion on a Vernon Adams draw play and got it. MSU wasn’t done, they got to mid-field but 3 deep attempts to the endzone couldn’t connect. EWU’s running back, Forte, had 180 yards and 4 TDs on the day while EWU passed for about 360 total and ran for 225. MSU had 300 rushing yards and 250 passing yards. MSU probably should’ve won this game, some questionable decisions on 4th downs and not opting to run the clock and kick a game-winning fieldgoal stand out. EWU was just 4 of 12 on 3rd down and had the ball for 26:00.
37-14 win vs UC Davis: Finally EWU could breathe easy. They started poorly, just up 9-7 at the half but put 21 points on the board in the 3rd and put the game out of reach. Both teams really attempted to control the clock, EWU only had 3 possessions in the first half, UCD had 4.
56-53 win vs Idaho State: A clash of two of the three best offenses in the Big Sky lived up to its billing. EWU couldn’t put ISU away, they blocked a punt and went up 35-17 in the 2nd qtr just to see ISU come back with 2 scores to be down 35-31 at the half. EWU scored two unanswered TDs, ISU responded with two of their own. With 6:30 left in the game EWU scored again going up 56-45. ISU went down the field and scored and converted a 2 point attempt to get within 3 with about 3 ½ minutes left in the game. ISU put faith in their defense to get the ball back, which didn’t work. EWU ran the clock out, even converting on a 4th down and 2 on the ISU 35 yard line. EWU had 617 total yards while ISU had 614 total yards. ISU passed for 421 and ran for 193 while EWU passed for 354 and ran for 263. EWU dominated TOP again. Also this was the game where Vernon Adams broke his foot and played through it.
42-30 win vs Southern Utah: SUU may have a poor record but they’ve got one of the better passing offenses in the Big Sky. SUU passed for 435 yards in this game and held an early 14-7 lead but EWU came in with a slow and steady game plan. They were very efficient on 3rd down, converting 7 of 11 attempts and held the ball for almost 36 minutes, they also stopped two SUU drives by forcing a pair of interceptions. Without Adams at the helm EWU went much more balanced, rushing for 280 and passing for 288.
26-18 win vs UNC: Back at home EWU got bottled up a bit by the UNC defense, forced to punt a handful of times early in the game. UNC score a few late points to make it look a little closer than it probably was. EWU was not only playing without their stud QB Adams but also their main threat running back Forte as well.
28-27 loss vs NAU: This one was interesting to watch. NAU looked poised to pull off the upset, home game, homecoming, having just enough defense and offense to get to EWU. What they didn’t expect was the injury to their 2nd string QB thrusting in their 3rd string QB to attempt to win the game. EWU held the lead the whole game, right until the end, they passed for just 171 and ran for 250. EWU had just 26:00 TOP and went 3 of 13 on 3rd down. NAU passed for 343 and their 3rd string QB lead the offense on an incredible game-winning drive, after a head-scratching EWU decision. EWU was facing a 4th and 4 at the NAU 23. Instead of kicking a fieldgoal which would’ve made it an 8 point EWU lead, or making a short-attempt to pick up the 1st, EWU went for a home-run pass which fell incomplete. NAU connected on a 54 yard pass play and then a 20 yard score – they failed on the 2 point attempt to go up 28-27. EWU had chance for 1 more play and it didn’t go anywhere.
54-3 win vs North Dakota: UND started a true freshman QB who went 5-19 for 37 yards and had 3 picks. Ugly Ugly game for UND. EWU rebounded from their loss nicely, having Forte back as well, they ran for 120, passed for 340, and held the ball for 38:00 TOP.
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Players to Watch:
#3 Vernon Adams, QB: Questionable to play and listed as a “game-time” decision. Was quoted at the NAU game (during the game) with a big smile on his face saying his goal is to get back for this game against Montana. He’ll be rusty and his recovery might limit him but he’s still one of the most dangerous players in the Big Sky. Adams is averaging 360 passing yards per game, has 24 TDs to just 4 INTs, he’s also a running threat, averaging about 50 yards per game before you take out losses on sacks, and he’s got 3 rushing TDs. This guy is a dual threat in every fashion.
#14 Jordan West, QB: If, for some reason, Adams isn’t cleared and doesn’t play West will be the next man up. He’s not a runner like Adams is, but will keep the ball a little bit. His passing stats show he’s averaging 151 yards per game, however I went back and looked at his numbers since he took over for Adams, he’s averaging 252 yards per game over that span – a better reflection of the passing threat that he is. He’s got 9 TDs and just 1 INT this season.
#10 Cooper Kupp, WR: Kupp has been limited a bit with the QB situation but he’s still got impressive numbers. 879 yards and 11 TDs this season, he’s averaging almost 98 yards per game. If Adams is back look for these two to connect a ton. Kupp is also the main punt returner and has a solid average of 10.4 yards per return.
#22 Quincy Forte, RB: A quick and shifty running back, he’s back from injury and makes the offense so much more dangerous. In just 5 games this season Forte has rushed for 685 yards and 7 TDs, also he’s got 75 receiving yards too.
#11 Kendrick Bourne, WR: A tall WR at 6-3, he’s one of the few players on EWU’s offense that has played all 10 games this season. He’s 2nd in receptions and has 670 yards and 8 TDs this season.
#1 Shaq Hill, WR: Another WR, he’s missed a few games and had a few others where he’s not been targeted much. Hill has 544 yards and 3 TDs this season. He’s also one of the two main kickoff returners, averaging about 21 yards per return.
#5 Mario Brown, RB: Brown has filled in nicely for Forte while he was out, he’s got 546 rushing yards and 4 TDs this season, 92 receiving yards, and a 23.5 yard per return average returning kickoffs. A multi-role guy, him and Forte will be the 2-1 punch of the rushing game.
#39 Ronnie Hamlin, LB: This dude has been there forever, I recall reading he was granted a 6th year on an injury appeal. He’s leading the team with 70 tackles. ½ a sack, 5.5 TFLs, and 1 forced fumble.
#49 Miquiyah Zamora, LB: Tied with Hamlin with 70 tackles he’s got 2.5 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, 1 int, and 1 forced fumble
#91 Samson Ebukam, DE: A 6-3, 240 guy he leads the team in sacks with 6, he’s blocked 2 kicks, and has 9 TFLS.
#27 Victor Gamboa, DB: A 6-0, 180 pound safety as a true freshman he’s jumped right in. He leads the team with 3 interceptions, has 33 tackles, and 1 fumble recovery.
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General Stats:
We’ll start with yards per game and it’s pretty clear what we all thought we’d see. EWU has an incredible offense and a so-so defense, while the Griz have a ho-hum offense and a pretty good defense. What’s been interesting is that over the last 4-5 weeks EWU’s defensive numbers have dramatically improved. A lot of that comes to the fact that they’ve played some of the worst offenses in the conference, so are they bad on defense or are they a little better than given credit for early in the season? Most of EWU’s defensive stats are now middle of the pack in the Big Sky.
Scoring. Strength on strength will be this EWU offense vs the Grizzly defense. The numbers suggest the Griz could/should score around 30 points, that’s about what they’re averaging and what EWU is allowing – but the big difference is EWU’s offense vs UM’s defense.
When we break down score by quarter you can see that EWU’s defense is allowing about what UM’s offense is averaging even on a per-quarter basis. The only big drop is the 4th quarter where the Grizzly offense has scored just 37 points this whole season. On the other side you see the big gap – what EWU’s offense averages vs what our defense allows.
When flipping sides and comparing offenses and defenses there’s still the concern that I see with the UM defense allowing more and more as the game goes on. If the Griz can cling to narrow lead in the 4th they’ll need the defense to buck this trend.
Finally red zone scoring. EWU is great at it, UM’s defense is great at stopping it. On the other side the Grizzly offense and Eagle defense are identical in what they allow.
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Some other general stats:
- EWU is +4 in turnovers on the season, they like to intercept passes, 12 picks on the season. They don’t toss a lot of picks but have lost 9 fumbles. UM is +8 on the season, they’ve only lost 4 turnovers this whole season.
- EWU bucks the trend of many high-powered offenses, they actually do like to control TOP as well, they’ve averaging 33:00 minutes of TOP per game.
- EWU is 50% converting 3rd downs and 67% converting 4th downs. Much like CPSLO they’re not afraid to go for it on 4th. Sometimes that’s hurt them (NAU game for example).
- One interesting stat and potentially scary stat for Griz fans is comparing the EWU offense at home vs the Montana offense and defense on the road. EWU at home is averaging 56 points per game at home while the Grizzly offense is averaging just 19 points per game.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory:
- Leave the “road game Griz” at home. The offense has not shown much at all in all 4 of their road games. That has to change for this game. Unless the Grizzly defense plans on keeping EWU under 3 scores which is a nice goal but probably unrealistic – the Griz are going to have to get into the 30’s if not the 40’s to be in this game.
- Control the clock, make possessions count. The Sac win was a prime example. The Griz on offense didn’t punt until late in the game when the outcome was settled. They took their time on drives and scored TDs. If you look back at EWU’s loss to NAU and some of their closer wins they were about even in TOP, didn’t have as many opportunities to score, and were made to pay for turnovers.
- Prepare for Adams. Duh. Outside of the team doctor refusing to let him go how would he miss this game? I just don’t see him not going.
- Respect the run. Forte and Brown are dangerous and if the Griz just go into pass coverage mode they could get beat up badly by these two. It’s going to be a tough day of keeping both the run and passing game locked down.
- Watch the big pass plays. Honestly I should’ve listed about 3 or 4 more receivers in EWU’s “players to watch”. Their top 7 receivers all have an average yard per catch over 10 yards. There’s Cupp, Bourne, and Hill like I mentioned but Mitchell, Wimberly, and Bomber are all dangerous guys too. This offense will prevent the Grizzly defense from being able to key in on one or two guys. We’ll need our very best game out of Hermey and Whitted.
- No turnovers for the Griz. EWU will only make the Griz pay. Montana has been very clean this season and need to keep it that way. On the other side if the Griz can scoop a fumble or two that would be awesome.
- Play smart. EWU averages almost 70 yards per game in penalties, the Griz are far lower. This is EWU’s biggest regular season game and they’re coming into this very cocky (with all the rights to be that way honestly). The Griz need to come in cool and collected, do their thing, and not get rattled. This will actually probably be the 2nd or 3rd smallest crowd the Griz have seen this season, I’m not so worried about the crowd factor.
- Lean on Canada and Van. If ball-control is the game then these two will be the guys that lead the team.
- The O-line must win the day. Our O-line has actually looked pretty darn good in their last 3 games. Gotta keep that rolling. Pass protect well and run block well. I think our OL has turned a corner from being a liability to being a steady unit. If we get their best game, creating lanes, keep JJ or SSH clean, then that will really help.
- Pressure Adams or West. Wags, Rehm, and Holmes could be the key figures to busting up EWU’s pass game. If the QBs are rushed into decisions that could really help prevent the EWU offense from firing. It could lead to big run plays though – we’ll need some good wrap-up tackles and probably a QB spy on Adams. Wags has been double-teamed most of the 2nd half of this season which really means that Holmes (who has gone awfully quiet this 2nd half), Rehm, Crittenden, Peevey, and other pass-rushers really need to get in the QBs face.
- Win on 3rd down. Teams that have had better success against EWU didn't let them keep their offense on the field as much. The Griz will need to hold EWU to less than 50% conversion success on 3rd (and probably 4th) down conversion attempts.
- Realize it's all on the line. I don't think a loss at EWU will cost us the post-season but it will cost us a shot at sharing the Big Sky title. No playing it safe here. Be aggressive, attack, take risks if needed.
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After the Sac game I was feeling a little more confident about the Griz being able to make this a game. EWU was looking down after the NAU loss and Adams was an unknown still. However as events are unfolding this week I’m getting a little worried about what we’re seeing. JJ is out of practice with a nagging injury while Adams is back at practice. I really like our defense but I just don’t know if they can keep this kind of an offense totally under wraps for a whole game. While Sac had 1 good QB, 1 good RB, and 2 good WRs. EWU has 2 good QBs, 2 good RBs, and 6 good WRs. Sac was the minor league version of EWU. Add in being on the road. Man…
The funny thing is though, when doing the CPSLO scouting my initial reaction was, “holy crap we’re gonna lose.” The whole week I was working on convincing myself otherwise, once the game rolled around and especially after the half it was unfolding as I kind of saw it. For this game, I don’t have that feeling, even with the news of JJ sitting out practice. Maybe the Sac game has given me some confidence but I feel that the Griz can play and win this game. Teams like ISU, MSU, and to a lesser extent SHSU showed that you can’t go offense vs offense – but teams like NAU and some of those other closer games showed that ball-control mixed with better defense can work.
All signs point to an EWU win, I’m not going to call it, I think the Griz have a chance here, even in the face of tall odds. Get after it Griz!
arty:
