Defense Metrics

[brewskis]

Statistics in football are only really meaningful when looking at the very top-tier teams. In fact, the use of the word "statistics" in football is an insult to the science of statistics. All we are doing is arguing about some random-ass AVERAGES that are used in an attempt to polish a turd. Anyone who considers sample sizes, SOS, standard deviations, and "garbage time" knows that the degree of accuracy is jack-shit.

In >75% of cases, you can't compare averages from one team to another team and say that one is more superior, let alone holds an advantage. Even when comparing averages, the difference is usually insignificant.

Why don't you call the Alabama coach and straighten him out? Statistics and metrics are very useful in sports, and they are very useful in business. Only an idiot would ignore all stats. On the other hand, I agree that stats often don't prove a particular point. They just are what they are. For example, third down conversion percentage is what it is. I think it's a meaningful and generally very meaningful stat, but it's only one of scores of stats. Most of the time I don't use stats to make or try to prove any point. I just post them. Sometimes, I use them to counter someone else's point.

I listened to a Saban interview where he clearly said "stats are for losers, final score is for winners".....and coming from someone who has studied statistics, football "statistics" are not statistics.....they are AVERAGES of NON-EQUIVALENT measurables.

Additionally.....I said in my response that "statistics" CAN be meaningful when looking at TOP-TIER teams, such as Bama. But for middle-tier teams....it's just numbers, and numbers are very different than statistics.

 

[GrizzGriz]

Jusr listened to an interview with an SEC def coord. Who has an analytics/economics degree from Yale who stated old metrics like yards per game are not the key stats anymore and more importantly todays defenses rely on yards per possession, red zone defense, and 3rd down defense. Not sure how a high yards per game average wouldnt result in a high yards per possession averafe but what do I know? I dont analyze defenses for a living. It seems like people felt Ty did well in the red zone and getting key 3rd down stops. Statistically I didnt think Ty was great or elite but maybe he was better than I thought given these new metrics. I always thought he was a good motivator and enthusiastic but not particularly fundamentally sound with his plan/defenses. I guess we will see. What do you all think?

Word is Ty was not coordinating the defense the last 4 weeks...only what I read; I was not in any meetings with coaches nor do I claim to have an inside informant.

 

[PlayerRep]

Jusr listened to an interview with an SEC def coord. Who has an analytics/economics degree from Yale who stated old metrics like yards per game are not the key stats anymore and more importantly todays defenses rely on yards per possession, red zone defense, and 3rd down defense. Not sure how a high yards per game average wouldnt result in a high yards per possession averafe but what do I know? I dont analyze defenses for a living. It seems like people felt Ty did well in the red zone and getting key 3rd down stops. Statistically I didnt think Ty was great or elite but maybe he was better than I thought given these new metrics. I always thought he was a good motivator and enthusiastic but not particularly fundamentally sound with his plan/defenses. I guess we will see. What do you all think?

Word is Ty was not coordinating the defense the last 4 weeks...only what I read; I was not in any meetings with coaches nor do I claim to have an inside informant.

Your word is wrong.

 

[reinell30]

Why is it a team can go all game and never score a TD in the Red Zone, but when it goes to over time, they score at will?

 

[grizindabox]

Jusr listened to an interview with an SEC def coord. Who has an analytics/economics degree from Yale who stated old metrics like yards per game are not the key stats anymore and more importantly todays defenses rely on yards per possession, red zone defense, and 3rd down defense. Not sure how a high yards per game average wouldnt result in a high yards per possession averafe but what do I know? I dont analyze defenses for a living. It seems like people felt Ty did well in the red zone and getting key 3rd down stops. Statistically I didnt think Ty was great or elite but maybe he was better than I thought given these new metrics. I always thought he was a good motivator and enthusiastic but not particularly fundamentally sound with his plan/defenses. I guess we will see. What do you all think?

Word is Ty was not coordinating the defense the last 4 weeks...only what I read; I was not in any meetings with coaches nor do I claim to have an inside informant.

Your word is wrong.

How do I put this....TG was part of a collaboration in developing the weekly gameplan....but Stitt gave more and more control to a couple other coaches for developing the weekly gameplan after PSU....and I know that PR will say this is incorrect....but I have no reason to doubt that this was the case....

 

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

Jusr listened to an interview with an SEC def coord. Who has an analytics/economics degree from Yale who stated old metrics like yards per game are not the key stats anymore and more importantly todays defenses rely on yards per possession, red zone defense, and 3rd down defense. Not sure how a high yards per game average wouldnt result in a high yards per possession averafe but what do I know? I dont analyze defenses for a living. It seems like people felt Ty did well in the red zone and getting key 3rd down stops. Statistically I didnt think Ty was great or elite but maybe he was better than I thought given these new metrics. I always thought he was a good motivator and enthusiastic but not particularly fundamentally sound with his plan/defenses. I guess we will see. What do you all think?

Word is Ty was not coordinating the defense the last 4 weeks...only what I read; I was not in any meetings with coaches nor do I claim to have an inside informant.

Your word is wrong.

Not according to our new DC......

 

[stubbins]

Jusr listened to an interview with an SEC def coord. Who has an analytics/economics degree from Yale who stated old metrics like yards per game are not the key stats anymore and more importantly todays defenses rely on yards per possession, red zone defense, and 3rd down defense. Not sure how a high yards per game average wouldnt result in a high yards per possession averafe but what do I know? I dont analyze defenses for a living. It seems like people felt Ty did well in the red zone and getting key 3rd down stops. Statistically I didnt think Ty was great or elite but maybe he was better than I thought given these new metrics. I always thought he was a good motivator and enthusiastic but not particularly fundamentally sound with his plan/defenses. I guess we will see. What do you all think?

hmmmmm.....
also, points per possession....those are the only two stats that should matter.

UNDSU's defense could give up a td every other defensive possession, and the their defense would "only" allow 28 pts per game.

Griz could give up a td on every 3rd possession and "only" allow 35 pts per game...whose defense is better?

Defensive stats based on whole games, and not taking into account actual possessions are useless to evaluate just the defense.

 

[PlayerRep]

Jusr listened to an interview with an SEC def coord. Who has an analytics/economics degree from Yale who stated old metrics like yards per game are not the key stats anymore and more importantly todays defenses rely on yards per possession, red zone defense, and 3rd down defense. Not sure how a high yards per game average wouldnt result in a high yards per possession averafe but what do I know? I dont analyze defenses for a living. It seems like people felt Ty did well in the red zone and getting key 3rd down stops. Statistically I didnt think Ty was great or elite but maybe he was better than I thought given these new metrics. I always thought he was a good motivator and enthusiastic but not particularly fundamentally sound with his plan/defenses. I guess we will see. What do you all think?

Word is Ty was not coordinating the defense the last 4 weeks...only what I read; I was not in any meetings with coaches nor do I claim to have an inside informant.

Your word is wrong.

How do I put this....TG was part of a collaboration in developing the weekly gameplan....but Stitt gave more and more control to a couple other coaches for developing the weekly gameplan after PSU....and I know that PR will say this is incorrect....but I have no reason to doubt that this was the case....

That's closer to being accurate, and it's not like TG or any DC develops weekly game plans by himself. TG was still the DC, and he was also calling plays during the game. And the game plan for NDSU was the essentially the same as in the first game, with some minor tweaks.

 

[UMGriz75]

In >75% of cases, you can't compare averages from one team to another team and say that one is more superior, let alone holds an advantage. Even when comparing averages, the difference is usually insignificant.

Coaches and fans have two different purposes.

For coaches, "Stats" primary purpose is internal. "If you don't measure it, you can't improve it."

For fans and analysts, they offer direct comparisons between teams and between years.

 

[AZGrizFan]

In >75% of cases, you can't compare averages from one team to another team and say that one is more superior, let alone holds an advantage. Even when comparing averages, the difference is usually insignificant.

Coaches and fans have two different purposes.

For coaches, "Stats" primary purpose is internal. "If you don't measure it, you can't improve it."

For fans and analysts, they offer direct comparisons between teams and between years.

But become merely message board fodder when trying to compare stats between two teams who've had few or zero common opponents.

 

[brewskis]

In >75% of cases, you can't compare averages from one team to another team and say that one is more superior, let alone holds an advantage. Even when comparing averages, the difference is usually insignificant.

Coaches and fans have two different purposes.

For coaches, "Stats" primary purpose is internal. "If you don't measure it, you can't improve it."

For fans and analysts, they offer direct comparisons between teams and between years.

But become merely message board fodder when trying to compare stats between two teams who've had few or zero common opponents.

Bingo.

 

[GrizzGriz]

Jusr listened to an interview with an SEC def coord. Who has an analytics/economics degree from Yale who stated old metrics like yards per game are not the key stats anymore and more importantly todays defenses rely on yards per possession, red zone defense, and 3rd down defense. Not sure how a high yards per game average wouldnt result in a high yards per possession averafe but what do I know? I dont analyze defenses for a living. It seems like people felt Ty did well in the red zone and getting key 3rd down stops. Statistically I didnt think Ty was great or elite but maybe he was better than I thought given these new metrics. I always thought he was a good motivator and enthusiastic but not particularly fundamentally sound with his plan/defenses. I guess we will see. What do you all think?

Word is Ty was not coordinating the defense the last 4 weeks...only what I read; I was not in any meetings with coaches nor do I claim to have an inside informant.

Your word is wrong.

Ummm...no I am not. His game planning responsibilities were reduced...but thank you for your continued abrasive remarks.

 

[UMGriz75]

But become merely message board fodder when trying to compare stats between two teams who've had few or zero common opponents.

And so probably don't play each other, either.

 

[PlayerRep]

Jusr listened to an interview with an SEC def coord. Who has an analytics/economics degree from Yale who stated old metrics like yards per game are not the key stats anymore and more importantly todays defenses rely on yards per possession, red zone defense, and 3rd down defense. Not sure how a high yards per game average wouldnt result in a high yards per possession averafe but what do I know? I dont analyze defenses for a living. It seems like people felt Ty did well in the red zone and getting key 3rd down stops. Statistically I didnt think Ty was great or elite but maybe he was better than I thought given these new metrics. I always thought he was a good motivator and enthusiastic but not particularly fundamentally sound with his plan/defenses. I guess we will see. What do you all think?

Word is Ty was not coordinating the defense the last 4 weeks...only what I read; I was not in any meetings with coaches nor do I claim to have an inside informant.

Your word is wrong.

Ummm...no I am not. His game planning responsibilities were reduced...but thank you for your continued abrasive remarks.

"Reduced game planning responsibilities" does not equal "not coordinating the defense", especially when the DC is still calling plays during the game.

What's about abrasive about this, just out of curiousity: "Your word is wrong."

 

[cmtgrizzly]

Just for the sake of accuracy, the def coord was Tennessee's

 

[getgrizzy]

Jusr listened to an interview with an SEC def coord. Who has an analytics/economics degree from Yale who stated old metrics like yards per game are not the key stats anymore and more importantly todays defenses rely on yards per possession, red zone defense, and 3rd down defense. Not sure how a high yards per game average wouldnt result in a high yards per possession averafe but what do I know? I dont analyze defenses for a living. It seems like people felt Ty did well in the red zone and getting key 3rd down stops. Statistically I didnt think Ty was great or elite but maybe he was better than I thought given these new metrics. I always thought he was a good motivator and enthusiastic but not particularly fundamentally sound with his plan/defenses. I guess we will see. What do you all think?

Word is Ty was not coordinating the defense the last 4 weeks...only what I read; I was not in any meetings with coaches nor do I claim to have an inside informant.

Your word is wrong.

Ummm...no I am not. His game planning responsibilities were reduced...but thank you for your continued abrasive remarks.

You're going to state, "Word is Ty was not coordinating the defense the last 4 weeks..." and add a caveat that explains that it isn't you saying this and that you read it somewhere, then that you don't claim to have inside info. You're going to great extents in preparing for someone to refute what you're saying, but when someone does refute you, you get all butt hurt and inexplicably say "Ummm...no I am not", which doesn't fit the conversation as you've now taken ownership of what you were originally saying wasn't coming from you. And then absurdly follow that with walking back what you claim someone else said, which is again absurd since you said they weren't your words and if not you wouldn't need to walk them back.

His remarks weren't abrasive because they weren't directed at you. Your reaction, however, makes it appear that your original statement was your own, since you took ownership of it. It's beginning to look like you're lying. Do you want to just come clean and directly tell everyone what you said was just made up, because you've essentially done just that with your "not coordinating the defense" to "his game planning responsibilities were reduced".

 

[yeager_fan]

Jusr listened to an interview with an SEC def coord. Who has an analytics/economics degree from Yale who stated old metrics like yards per game are not the key stats anymore and more importantly todays defenses rely on yards per possession, red zone defense, and 3rd down defense. Not sure how a high yards per game average wouldnt result in a high yards per possession averafe but what do I know? I dont analyze defenses for a living. It seems like people felt Ty did well in the red zone and getting key 3rd down stops. Statistically I didnt think Ty was great or elite but maybe he was better than I thought given these new metrics. I always thought he was a good motivator and enthusiastic but not particularly fundamentally sound with his plan/defenses. I guess we will see. What do you all think?

hmmmmm.....
also, points per possession....those are the only two stats that should matter.

UNDSU's defense could give up a td every other defensive possession, and the their defense would "only" allow 28 pts per game.

Griz could give up a td on every 3rd possession and "only" allow 35 pts per game...whose defense is better?

Defensive stats based on whole games, and not taking into account actual possessions are useless to evaluate just the defense.

This is a great point. NDSU's defense was lights out in the playoffs partly because the offense holds the ball so long. By the time JaxSt got the ball, they were pressing. One good play by the Bison D on first down took them out of their gameplan and rhythm and they could not get anything going.

 

[GrizzGriz]

Word is Ty was not coordinating the defense the last 4 weeks...only what I read; I was not in any meetings with coaches nor do I claim to have an inside informant.

Your word is wrong.

Ummm...no I am not. His game planning responsibilities were reduced...but thank you for your continued abrasive remarks.

You're going to state, "Word is Ty was not coordinating the defense the last 4 weeks..." and add a caveat that explains that it isn't you saying this and that you read it somewhere, then that you don't claim to have inside info. You're going to great extents in preparing for someone to refute what you're saying, but when someone does refute you, you get all butt hurt and inexplicably say "Ummm...no I am not", which doesn't fit the conversation as you've now taken ownership of what you were originally saying wasn't coming from you. And then absurdly follow that with walking back what you claim someone else said, which is again absurd since you said they weren't your words and if not you wouldn't need to walk them back.

His remarks weren't abrasive because they weren't directed at you. Your reaction, however, makes it appear that your original statement was your own, since you took ownership of it. It's beginning to look like you're lying. Do you want to just come clean and directly tell everyone what you said was just made up, because you've essentially done just that with your "not coordinating the defense" to "his game planning responsibilities were reduced".

Not "butt hurt". Thank you for the feedback. Much appreciated.

 

[GrizzGriz]

Your word is wrong.

Ummm...no I am not. His game planning responsibilities were reduced...but thank you for your continued abrasive remarks.

You're going to state, "Word is Ty was not coordinating the defense the last 4 weeks..." and add a caveat that explains that it isn't you saying this and that you read it somewhere, then that you don't claim to have inside info. You're going to great extents in preparing for someone to refute what you're saying, but when someone does refute you, you get all butt hurt and inexplicably say "Ummm...no I am not", which doesn't fit the conversation as you've now taken ownership of what you were originally saying wasn't coming from you. And then absurdly follow that with walking back what you claim someone else said, which is again absurd since you said they weren't your words and if not you wouldn't need to walk them back.

His remarks weren't abrasive because they weren't directed at you. Your reaction, however, makes it appear that your original statement was your own, since you took ownership of it. It's beginning to look like you're lying. Do you want to just come clean and directly tell everyone what you said was just made up, because you've essentially done just that with your "not coordinating the defense" to "his game planning responsibilities were reduced".

Not "butt hurt". Thank you for the feedback. Not sure how you reached the conclusions you did from my brief comment, but not going to worry about. Think what you will.

 

[GrizzGriz]

Word is Ty was not coordinating the defense the last 4 weeks...only what I read; I was not in any meetings with coaches nor do I claim to have an inside informant.

Your word is wrong.

Ummm...no I am not. His game planning responsibilities were reduced...but thank you for your continued abrasive remarks.

You're going to state, "Word is Ty was not coordinating the defense the last 4 weeks..." and add a caveat that explains that it isn't you saying this and that you read it somewhere, then that you don't claim to have inside info. You're going to great extents in preparing for someone to refute what you're saying, but when someone does refute you, you get all butt hurt and inexplicably say "Ummm...no I am not", which doesn't fit the conversation as you've now taken ownership of what you were originally saying wasn't coming from you. And then absurdly follow that with walking back what you claim someone else said, which is again absurd since you said they weren't your words and if not you wouldn't need to walk them back.

His remarks weren't abrasive because they weren't directed at you. Your reaction, however, makes it appear that your original statement was your own, since you took ownership of it. It's beginning to look like you're lying. Do you want to just come clean and directly tell everyone what you said was just made up, because you've essentially done just that with your "not coordinating the defense" to "his game planning responsibilities were reduced".

To quote Stitt on naming Semore as DC:

"He hasn't been in the business a ton of years, but his knowledge is way beyond his years. He had a huge influence on our defense this past year, especially in the second half of the season."

You can try to turn the semantics to whatever you wish, but the fact is TG and reduced duties in coordinating the D...possibly more than you want to acknowledge. So maybe the word was not so wrong....