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Coastal Carolina in the Big Sky?

IdaGriz01

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Okay, I decided to get your attention with a new thread rather than stick this on one of the other possible threads. That includes the “don’t sense the excitement” notion ... because I think part of the problem is that hardly any of us have seen Coastal Carolina, or their usual opponents play.

So my premise was: How would the CC schedule look like in terms of the Big Sky or other ooc teams the Griz played this year? I figured the best bet was to use the GPI (Gridiron Power Index) and the Strength of Schedule numbers, along with the overall records. Keep in mind that a LOW GPI (Index) is good, while a higher SOS is just what it sounds like -- higher is tougher. So, to put it in perspective:

  • Team, GPI, (SOS)
    NDSU 1.14 (58.84)
    Griz 7.00 (49.41)
    CC 13.43 (47.66)
    Weber State 72.14 (56.15)
Of course, the Griz played D-II Okie-Pan, while CC played FBS South Carolina, so that is obviously a big difference. But whether you do the clobbering, or get clobbered, those games don’t say much about the overall matchup. How about the rest?

First, I went through the Griz schedule (not including OPSU) and tried to find a Coastal opponent (ignoring USC) that compared reasonably well in GPI, SOS, and/or overall record. The numbers in brackets are the differences in the GPI and SOS, respectively, with “+” numbers being in favor of the Griz opponent, i.e., better GPI or stronger SOS than the CC opponent. Losses (Griz or CC) are marked with an asterisk* next to the winning opponent.

  • Appalachian State (4-8) ≈ Gardner-Webb (7-5) [+0.4, +0.0]
    • The GPI and SOS are very close, for such different records: ASU had three losses decided by a field goal, while G-W had two wins of +2 and +3 points.
    UND (3-8) ≈ Charlotte (5-6) [+0.6, +8.1]
    • As shown by the SOS difference, North Dakota played a stronger schedule than Charlotte.
    NAU* (9-2) ≈ Charleston Southern* (10-3) [+28.9, +5.0]
    • The substantial difference in GPI shows how much stronger the Big Sky team was as an opponent, despite the comparable win-loss records.
    PSU (6-6) ≈ E Kentucky (6-6) [ -5.1, -2.6]

    UC-Davis (5-7) ≈ Hampton (4-8) [+18.9, +3.1]
    • Again, despite the not-too-different records, the Big Sky team has a much stronger GPI.
    Cal Poly (6-6) ≈ Liberty (8-4) [+1.4, +2.2]
    • GPI and SOS were pretty close ... two of CP’s losses were to FBS teams, another was to EWU.
    EWU* (10-2) ≈ S Carolina State (9-3) [+25.9, 11.2]
    • Again, the substantial difference in GPI (and SOS) show how much stronger the Big Sky team was as an opponent, despite the comparable win-loss records.
    Sac State (5-7) ≈ Charlotte (5-6) [+24.4, +9.8]
    • Had to “re-use” Charlotte to get an equivalent record, but again Sac State is the much stronger opponent.
    USD (4-8) ≈ Hampton (4-8) [+26.1, +12.4]
    • Had to “re-use” another CC opponent to match the W-L record, but South Dakota is the much stronger team.
    Weber State (2-10) ≈ Elon (2-10) [+3.6, +4.7]
    Montana State (7-5) ≈ Furman (8-4) [+3.1, -3.4]
Using this little game, I matched all of the Griz FCS opponents with a roughly equivalent team from the Coastal schedule. In all but one case, the UM side had much stronger GPI and SOS numbers. Moreover, to match the lesser opponents on the Griz schedule, I had to double up a couple times from the CC schedule ... which left two of their opponents hanging. And those two were so weak, I have to go to the bottom of the Big Sky -- teams the Griz did not play. Using the same conventions:

  • Northern Colorado (1-11) ≈ Virginia Military (2-10) [+0.7, -1.1]
    Idaho State (3-9) ≈ Presbyterian (3-8) [+8.4, +0.8]
I know this is crude, but it kinda shows that Coastal played a weaker version of a Big Sky schedule, with two of the BSC bottom-feeders thrown in to fatten the record -- a "luxury" the Griz did not get.
 
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AlaskaGriz said:
So what your saying is there schedule is shit.....
Click to expand...
Not totally. Assuming another loss or two to the better BSC teams, but some feasting on the bottom feeders, the numbers suggest they'd finish in the middle of the pack (say 5-3, 8-4) if they actually did play in the Big Sky ... with that schedule.
 
When I opened this thread, I chose to key off the Griz schedule ... since those teams were the ones we were all most familiar with. But that led to some weird bits, like where I had to “re-use” CC opponents to match up (sorta) with the Griz schedule.

But suppose we just assume Coastal played a (pretend) “Western” schedule? That is, go through their schedule game-by-game and see how the teams they played compare to teams we might be familiar with out here. (I used regular season stats only, BTW. Again, I did not include FBS South Carolina, which you could sorta equate to UCLA out here in the West.)

Many of the comparisons will remain the same, but I found this different perspective very interesting. Except for a few cases (see notes), I was able to match the GPI and SOS numbers pretty well, so I won’t show the differences this time.


  • S Carolina State (9-3) ≈ Cal Poly (6-6) [a]
    Furman (8-4) ≈ Montana State (7-5)
    E Kentucky (6-6) ≈ Portland State (6-6)
    Hampton (4-8) ≈ South Dakota (4-8)
    Elon (2-10) ≈ Weber State (2-10)
    Gardner-Webb (7-5) ≈ UC-Davis (5-7) [c]
    Liberty (8-4) ≈ Southern Utah (8-4)
    Virginia Military (2-10) ≈ Northern Colorado (1-11)
    Charlotte (5-6) ≈ North Dakota (3-8) [d]
    Chas Southern (10-3) ≈ Northern Arizona (9-2)
    Presbyterian (3-8) ≈ Idaho State (3-9)

    [a] CP played a much stronger schedule: Two of CP’s losses were to FBS teams, and two others were to top-10 FCS opponents. SC State played only one ranked FCS team ... CC.
    Best I could do: The W-L records are the same, but the numbers say that Dakota is a much stronger team: +26.1 on the GPI, +12.4 on SOS.
    [c] UC-D lost to an FBS and four ranked FCS opponents. G-W lost to an FBS, but played only one ranked team: again, CC.
    [d] North Dakota’s record suffered because they played five ranked FCS team, versus two for Charlotte. Also, two of Charlotte’s win were against D-II opponents.

Note that this “equivalent” schedule feasts on six of the seven worse teams in the Big Sky (also, South Dakota was 7th in the Missouri Valley). Only Charleston Southern has some equivalent to a top-three BSC team, and that was CC’s one FCS loss. And NAU was +28.9 over Chas Southern in GPI, +5.0 on SOS.

But really, with something like this schedule (eliminating 3 to get down to 8 in conference), Coastal could have done all right in the Big Sky. Maybe one day soon the Griz can feast on the bottom seven, plus MSU, and go undefeated in conference. :D
 
So with all this work (thank you, btw) witch team in the BSC is most like Coastal? Portland State maybe? MSU?
 
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