I posted this on Twitter last night, but I'll summarize here for those who don't dabble...
I don't particularly like rivalry games in this form. In basketball you face teams 3 times in a year more often than not when you are dealing with conference tournaments. The strange thing, is that it doesn't happen ALL that often when it comes to Montana and Montana State. Only the third time in 40 years in a title game matchup.
I think the Griz should be rightly favored to win, but MSU is playing with an absurd amount of confidence. They have had to expend a ton of energy over the past two games, but they have likely the best guard in the conference in Robert Ford III who has the ability to take over a game.
I though like teams in scenarios like this:
1. Can score easily and score in multiple ways. I think that trends to be an advantage for the Griz as they've over the past 5 games put 7 different players into double figures and both Moody and Thomas have score 20 plus twice. Montana can score at multiple levels with players who can score at those levels. Thomas is a two level player, Whitney (sort of), Moody are all competent at getting to the rim or hitting open 3's. The other added bonus, is that Montana has averaged 15 apg over the past 6 games.
The insane thing about MSU is that nearly 50% of their points in the last 5 games have come from behind the 3pt line. That is an insane amount really for the college game and that imbalance can be an Achilles heel when the shots aren't falling. MSU isn't an elite shooting 3point team, just a half percentage better than the Griz, they just have made more in recent weeks. Can they make 15 three's tonight? I dunno. The prior two matchup's suggest maybe not (11 of 31 for 35%). If they are struggling to get 3's off (shot 27 apiece against WSU and SS) which is 50% of their shot selection.
I just think in games where you are a bit tired, you sort of hope to find ways to get easier shots to go in and Montanan's versatility is an advantage.
2. The small things. This isn't the Montana defense from years past. They don't play at the same pace, but certain trends stay the same. They are still a good shot limiting team, particularly from 3. The are limiting teams to about 15 3's a game in conference which is a significant departure from where MSU has been the past 4 games in terms of attempts. MSU philosphically is a bit different animal offensively than the first two games, but I tend to prefer teams who are good a limiting looks, of which Montana generally has been this year.
Moreover, Montana doesn't turn over the ball as much (lowest in the conference), in part because they have multiple players who can facilitate the offense. MSU has been turnover prone at times this year, because a lot of their offense goes through Ford III's hands. He can lead the conference in steals (3 spg) , but averages nearly the same in turnovers. If Montana keeps its unforced errors down, MSU is going to have to work harder on both ends of the floor. That is something we saw last night in the UM-ISU game.
Two other small things that I think will play a roll. MSU hasn't been a great rebounding team during conference play. Montana isn't elite, but they are getting better team rebounding than we've seen the last few years. MSU isn't all that active on the offensive boards (similar to TDC teams in the past), and Montana heavily out rebounded MSU in game 2, and in game 1 it is about the margin (5) between the two teams now. If Oke and Thomas can stay on the floor, this is a clear area of advantage for the Griz.
I think depth/rotation is going to matter. If you look at it on paper, I think this is where Montana in terms of versatility has a significant advantage. In all seriousness you could see all 5 starters for both teams with minutes that extend over 35. Whitney and Vasquez have both played more than 35 minutes for UM, whereas both Ford and Turner have both averaged similar rates MSU. MSU doesn't really have a lot of options at guard (Miller) and prefers to sub Lecholat and move pieces around. Lecholat like Nap can play and defend multiple positions and is their utility tool. Olmstead has taken over post replacement duties in the past three weeks and provides a bit more presense there when Walker is subbed out.
I just look at the benches of both teams and their ability to weather uncertainty. Montana has gotten double figure scoring performances from Sawyer, Nap, Williams and Henderson at one point during conference season. More importantly I think it is the defensive versatility, and considering the fact that MSU is so 3 happy lately, you could see Nap and Williams get a lof minutes early. Moreover, Montana has gotten quality minutes from 10 guys (including Jones) over the course of the past two days.
I just think that'll help in a game that generally has a ton of emotional and physical investment in it. Montana can play better defense and rely on it because they have the depth and flexibility to back it up.
Is that a precise calculation of what will play out? Who knows. These games are crap shoots.
I like Montana to win, but the fact that MSU has Ford terrifies the living heck out of me.
