CAA End Game

[IdaGriz01]

Team .. Conf Rec .. Overall . . . Opp1 . . .. . . . Opp2 . . Opponents’ W-L
JMU . . . . 6-0 . . . . . . 9-0 . . . v Rich . . . . . . @ Elon . . . . 13-5
Elon . .. . 6-0 . . . . . . 8-1 . . . @ UNH . . . . . v JMU . . . . . 15-3
Stony. . . 6-1 . . . . . . 7-2 . . . v Wagner*. . . @ Maine . . . 7-10
Dela . . . 4-2 . . . . . . 6-3 . . . v Albany . . . . @ Villa . . . . 7-11
UNH . . . 4-2 . . . . . . 6-3 . . . v Elon . . .. . . @ Albany . . 11-7
* NEC

The Big sky end game was so interesting, I decided to do it for the two “biggies.” And to help out, I’ve included whether the future games are home (“v”) or away, and show in red when top teams are playing each other. (MVFC has its own thread.)

Two things jump out. First, the top two teams have by far the toughest remaining schedules … mainly, of course, because they play each other. And the next two down (Stony and Delaware) have the easiest out. But despite the weaker cumulative opponent records, they both end with a potentially tough road game.

Of course, the really big deal should be the JMU at Elon game to end the season. But before then, Elon has to play at New Hampshire, where the Wildcats are always tough.

However it all shakes out, it's easy to see at least three bids coming out of the CAA. But if Delaware and UNH win out (the latter giving Elon another loss), they'd have two 8-3 teams, making everybody sweat.

 

[Grizzlies1982]

Idaho, I don't like the looks of this one either. JMU & Elon appear to be solid locks regardless of their outcomes. Stony Brook & Delaware have relatively easy paths to 9-2, 8-3, or 7-4. Would be helpful if New Hampshire would lose out, though I doubt that happens.

Very real potential here for the CAA to slide all five of these teams into the playoffs. Theoretically we could see MVFC & CAA soak up 8 of the available 14 at large playoff slots. If so, the Big Sky would be fortunate to get 3 teams in (including our auto bid). Hopefully several teams cooperate for us and stumble.

 

[IdaGriz01]

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Idaho, I don't like the looks of this one either. JMU & Elon appear to be solid locks regardless of their outcomes. Stony Brook & Delaware have relatively easy paths to 9-2, 8-3, or 7-4. Would be helpful if New Hampshire would lose out, though I doubt that happens.

Very real potential here for the CAA to slide all five of these teams into the playoffs. Theoretically we could see MVFC & CAA soak up 8 of the available 14 at large playoff slots. If so, the Big Sky would be fortunate to get 3 teams in (including our auto bid). Hopefully several teams cooperate for us and stumble.

"It's complicated."

Since Stony Brook plays a weak Wagner team (3-6, NEC), they are almost certain to finish at 9-2 or 8-3 (loss to Maine, 6-2 in conference). Even if Elon lost both remaining games, they’d be 8-3, and also 6-2 in conference. Of course, JMU is a lock, even if they lose both and finish at 9-2 (which would mean that Elon won and finished at 10-1.) So that part of the bids are set, as far as I’m concerned.

The big worry is that both Delaware and UNH could win out … that would mean that UNH beat Elon. They would both be 8-3 and 6-2 in conference. What a mess! The good news: That’s pretty unlikely, but even if it happened, I do not think the CAA gets five teams in. On the other hand, I think there is a high probability -- almost a certainty -- that they get four.

 

[AZGrizFan]

We need Elon to beat UNH, then root for Albany.

 

[IdaGriz01]

We need Elon to beat UNH, then root for Albany.

All the way!

 

[Griz til I die]

Team .. Conf Rec .. Overall . . . Opp1 . . .. . . . Opp2 . . Opponents’ W-L
JMU . . . . 6-0 . . . . . . 9-0 . . . v Rich . . . . . . @ Elon . . . . 13-5
Elon . .. . 6-0 . . . . . . 8-1 . . . @ UNH . . . . . v JMU . . . . . 15-3
Stony. . . 6-1 . . . . . . 7-2 . . . v Wagner*. . . @ Maine . . . 7-10
Dela . . . 4-2 . . . . . . 6-3 . . . v Albany . . . . @ Villa . . . . 7-11
UNH . . . 4-2 . . . . . . 6-3 . . . v Elon . . .. . . @ Albany . . 11-7
* NEC

The Big sky end game was so interesting, I decided to do it for the two “biggies.” And to help out, I’ve included whether the future games are home (“v”) or away, and show in red when top teams are playing each other. (MVFC has its own thread.)

Two things jump out. First, the top two teams have by far the toughest remaining schedules … mainly, of course, because they play each other. And the next two down (Stony and Delaware) have the easiest out. But despite the weaker cumulative opponent records, they both end with a potentially tough road game.

Of course, the really big deal should be the JMU at Elon game to end the season. But before then, Elon has to play at New Hampshire, where the Wildcats are always tough.

However it all shakes out, it's easy to see at least three bids coming out of the CAA. But if Delaware and UNH win out (the latter giving Elon another loss), they'd have two 8-3 teams, making everybody sweat.

If New Hampshire loses to Elon (which they most likely will), they’re done. Delaware could lose to Billanove since it’s on the road. I personally think Delaware is overrated and very well could lose the game. I’ll be cheering for Nova and Elon.