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MBBALL Bubble Watch

IdaGriz01

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
The Big Sky does not offer any threat as a “bubble buster,” but some others do. The one that jumped out today was McNeese knocking off the #1 seed Stephen F. Austin in the Southland Conference. The Lumberjacks won 27 games during the regular season, but their numbers are crap. Thus, despite all those wins, I suspect they won’t get an at-large bid. (Won’t mind being wrong.)

FWIW: A #1 seed that does not win its conference tournament no longer gets an automatic bid to the NIT. (A really bad year absolutely butchered the NIT field.) However, I think that’s where SFA will end up. In the Missouri Valley, Belmont won 26 games in the regular season … I doubt that anyone thinks they will get an NCAA bid … and maybe not even to the NIT.

Still lots of conference titles to be decided, but they pile up pretty fast from here on. One example is Akron, which won 26 games during the regular season. They are not favored to win the conference tournament … undefeated Miami-Ohio is the odds-on favorite, of course. Do the Zips deserve a bid over the eighth-place finisher in the Big-10?
 
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More possible bubble busters showing up, or at least being mentioned. Besides Stephen F. Austin, I have an eye on Liberty, which won 25 games in the regular season and received the #1 seed in Conference-USA. But they got knocked off by Missouri State. Will they get an at-large and burst someone's bubble? Could happen.

But the (almost) sure bubble buster came earlier today. Miami-Ohio lost in its first tournament game to 8-seed Massachusetts. So some other team will win the MAC tournament. It's pretty much a given that Miami-Ohio will get a bid, although the loss will cripple their seed. If anyone besides 2-seed Akron wins the MAC auto-bid, that will surely burst somebody's bubble. (Not saying Akron will get a bid anyway, but they have a reasonable case.)
 
When Liberty, the 1-seed in Conference-USA got knocked out of their tournament, I speculated that they could be bubble burster. They had a strong regular season (25-6), with a couple of pretty good OOC wins. Today, however, the 2-seed, Sam Houston State also lost (the 3-seed was already gone too). The championship will match the #4 and #6 seeds. C-USA is considered a high mid-level conference, but, to me, having the top teams eliminated really hurts them. I’m thinking Liberty is headed for the NIT and SHSU’s season is over … unless they go to a pay-to-play postseason tournament.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
But the (almost) sure bubble buster came earlier today. Miami-Ohio lost in its first tournament game to 8-seed Massachusetts. So some other team will win the MAC tournament. It's pretty much a given that Miami-Ohio will get a bid, although the loss will cripple their seed. If anyone besides 2-seed Akron wins the MAC auto-bid, that will surely burst somebody's bubble. (Not saying Akron will get a bid anyway, but they have a reasonable case.)
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Many had Miami-Ohio on the bubble even though they were undefeated which I thought was ludicrious. Losing to UMass may have got them kicked out of the tournament.
 
GriznMN said:
Many had Miami-Ohio on the bubble even though they were undefeated which I thought was ludicrious. Losing to UMass may have got them kicked out of the tournament.
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Sadly, I have to agree. That would be a travesty, but the committee has done stranger things before.
 
Definite bubble-buster this afternoon. Dayton edged out St. Louis, the 1-seed in the A-10 conference. The experts don't seem to think much of the A-10, but the "Billikens" have really good NET and BPI rankings ... good enough, I think, for an at-large bid. When some other teams gets the A-10 auto-bid, that could knock another borderline time out.
 
Bubble watch coming down to the wire. No problem with Arkansas over Vanderbilt for the SEC ... both were going to get bids anyway. I'm a bit uncertain about Dayton out of the A-10, after their loss to VCU. They had a nice run to the championship game, but their rankings may not be good enough to now get an at-large bid. I think St. Louis has the numbers for a bid, despite losing as the conference 1-seed, and I do not see the committee giving the A-10 three spots ... thereby cutting into their ability to get another P-4/5 team into the field.

Belmont was another losing 1-seed (Missouri Valley) that I wondered about. Discovered that they turned down an NIT bid because their coach got hired away by Kansas State. The only question seems to be how many of Belmont's players will go with him. Life in the minor leagues.
 
No late bubble busters. Neither Dayton nor Wichita State could get it done, the Ivy is one-bid, and the P4/5 opponents were getting bids anyway. I'm still thinking a 15 seed for the Big Sky, then, with a bunch of P-4/5 bids, I'm thinking the Spuds will face one of those. Who knows where?
 
IdaGriz01 said:
No late bubble busters. Neither Dayton nor Wichita State could get it done, the Ivy is one-bid, and the P4/5 opponents were getting bids anyway. I'm still thinking a 15 seed for the Big Sky, then, with a bunch of P-4/5 bids, I'm thinking the Spuds will face one of those. Who knows where?
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Good call. 15 seed against Houston.
 
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