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BSC Scenarios

Montana Gym Rat

Montana Gym Rat

Well-known member
DONOR
It took me a little while, but I've finally done it. All 1,024 of the possible ways that BSC conference race can shake out!

Here are the possibilities for each team.

Northern Arizona:
1st - 93.75%
2nd - 6.25%

Montana:
1st - 6.25%
2nd - 71.09%
3rd - 21.09%
4th - 1.56%

Eastern Washington:
2nd - 21.09%
3rd - 46.09%
4th - 26.69%
5th - 3.13%

Montana State:
2nd - 1.56%
3rd - 32.81%
4th - 46.88%
5th - 17.19%
6th - 1.56%

Sacramento State:
4th - 20.31%
5th - 51.56%
6th - 25.00%
7th - 3.13%

Weber State:
4th - 1.56%
5th - 24.22%
6th - 42.19%
7th - 16.41%
8th - 15.63%

Idaho State:
5th - 3.91%
6th - 16.02%
7th - 57.03%
8th - 23.05%

Portland State:
6th - 15.23%
7th - 23.44%
8th - 61.33%

Now every Griz fan that reads this that is within 1 hour of Missoula should be at the game today. Especially since I'm stuck at work!
 
Montana Gym Rat said:
It took me a little while, but I've finally done it. All 1,024 of the possible ways that BSC conference race can shake out!

Here are the possibilities for each team.

Northern Arizona:
1st - 93.75%
2nd - 6.25%

Montana:
1st - 6.25%
2nd - 71.09%
3rd - 21.09%
4th - 1.56%

Eastern Washington:
2nd - 21.09%
3rd - 46.09%
4th - 26.69%
5th - 3.13%

Montana State:
2nd - 1.56%
3rd - 32.81%
4th - 46.88%
5th - 17.19%
6th - 1.56%

Sacramento State:
4th - 20.31%
5th - 51.56%
6th - 25.00%
7th - 3.13%

Weber State:
4th - 1.56%
5th - 24.22%
6th - 42.19%
7th - 16.41%
8th - 15.63%

Idaho State:
5th - 3.91%
6th - 16.02%
7th - 57.03%
8th - 23.05%

Portland State:
6th - 15.23%
7th - 23.44%
8th - 61.33%

Now every Griz fan that reads this that is within 1 hour of Missoula should be at the game today. Especially since I'm stuck at work!
Click to expand...



those some impressive #'s there gym rat. nice to get a look at the standings like that. ive been told your really smart by TS, now i know for myself!! it must run in the family- honored to be a part of it.
 
GRIZWELL said:
those some impressive #'s there gym rat. nice to get a look at the standings like that. ive been told your really smart by TS, now i know for myself!! it must run in the family- honored to be a part of it.
Click to expand...

Pleasure's all mine! :thumb:
 
Here is the update:

NAU, UM and EWU were not affected by the game tonight.


Montana State:
2nd - 1.56%
3rd - 32.81%
4th - 48.44%
5th - 17.19%

Sacramento State:
4th - 20.31%
5th - 62.50%
6th - 17.19%

Weber State:
5th - 12.50%
6th - 34.38%
7th - 21.88%
8th - 31.25%

Idaho State:
5th - 4.69%
6th - 17.97%
7th - 46.09%
8th - 31.25%

Portland State:
6th - 30.47%
7th - 32.03%
8th - 37.50%
 
Some news after the game tonight:

Sacramento State clinches a playoff spot.

Montana State can finish no worse than 5th.

Weber State can finish no better than 5th, losing the chance at a home playoff game.
 
One team I'm on the fence about is ISU. I'd love to see the Griz get a rematch against those guys and beat them. On the other hand, they only beat ISU by a few at home, and then lost big in Pokeafellow.
 
Just got home a bit ago. Awesome game - really nice 2nd half that the Griz can hopefully build on. It would be huge to take a 6 game win streak into the tourney.


Northern Arizona:
1st - 87.50%
2nd - 12.50%

Montana:
1st - 12.50%
2nd - 87.50%

Eastern Washington:
3rd - 62.50%
4th - 31.25%
5th - 6.25%

Montana State:
3rd - 37.50%
4th - 43.75%
5th - 18.75%

Sacramento State:
4th - 25.00%
5th - 59.38%
6th - 15.63%

Weber State:
5th - 12.50%
6th - 18.75%
7th - 31.25%
8th - 37.50%

Idaho State:
5th - 3.13%
6th - 15.63%
7th - 31.25%
8th - 50.00%

Portland State:
6th - 50.00%
7th - 37.50%
8th - 12.50%
 
A win for PSU on Saturday does not guarantee a playoff spot. They would still need some shuffling order help. If ISU wins out and EWU finishes ahead of MSU, then PSU is out. If MSU finishes ahead of EWU, then ISU is out.

It's pretty complicated between the bottom 3, but basically PSU has the best shot of getting in right now.

Really WSU has to beat ISU and hope for UM to beat PSU. That's about the only way they're getting in at this point. There is a tiebreaker scenario with Sacramento State that would get WSU in, but that's a pretty good stretch at this point.

Things are looking grim for ISU, even if they win out there's still only a 50-50 chance that they get in the playoffs.

EWU can guarantee 3rd place with a win over MSU on Saturday. MSU does not lock up 3rd if they win, but it gives them a pretty good shot at it. MSU could also lock up 3rd if they win out.

Sacramento State does not control their destiny at this point for a home playoff game. Even if they win out, there is a chance they could end up 5th.
 
Okie doke...some pretty big changes after those two games.

Northern Arizona has locked up 1st.

Montana has locked up 2nd.

Eastern Washinton:
3rd - 62.50%
4th - 37.50%

EWU can clinch 3rd with a win over MSU tonight. They can lose and take 3rd as long as they beat ISU and MSU loses to SAC.

Montana State:
3rd - 37.50%
4th - 62.50%

If MSU wins out they would clinch 3rd. If they beat EWU and EWU loses to ISU, they would also take 3rd.

Sacramento State has locked up 5th place. They're either going to Cheney or Bozeman on March 4th.

Portland State:
6th - 87.50%
7th - 12.50%

Portland State needs an ISU loss or MSU to take 3rd in order to clinch a playoff spot.

Idaho State:
6th - 12.50%
7th - 12.50%
8th - 75.00%

Idaho State must win out and have EWU finish 3rd in order to clinch a playoff spot.

Weber State has been eliminated from the playoffs.
 
Sac State is not a lock at number 5 yet. We can still host a home playoff game.

From the BSC: "Montana State and Sacramento State are still in the hunt for the fourth spot. The two teams meet in Bozeman on Monday night. The winner will gain the No. 4 seed."
 
Kadeezy said:
Sac State is not a lock at number 5 yet. We can still host a home playoff game.

From the BSC: "Montana State and Sacramento State are still in the hunt for the fourth spot. The two teams meet in Bozeman on Monday night. The winner will gain the No. 4 seed."
Click to expand...

Kadeezy,

Sounds like you guys need a psychiatrist on that team. Too many egos and no leadership it sounds like. Too muhc preseason hype, the players acted like they were going to be handed the BSC title, they are pointing fingers like crazy now.
 
It's hard for me to agrue with that. When we came out 13-5, I was more than excited. We were getting Jason Harris back, and had two home games against the Montana schools and then the sh!t hit the fan. We've gone 1-8 since then, and it looks like a totally different team. I think you may be right, maybe the preseason acolades went to their heads... Whatever it is, I can see a huge difference in play since that point. They settle for too many threes, can't run the half court offense, and they're flat out too small. Coach Jenkins, for some unknown reason enjoys playing 5 Guards at a time (Freeman(5'10), Leath(6'1), Woods(6"5), Harris(6'4), Bausley(6'6)) and we get out rebounded and killed on the inside. I would really like to see more Lange, Beekman, Adams and Perry.
 
Kadeezy said:
It's hard for me to agrue with that. When we came out 13-5, I was more than excited. We were getting Jason Harris back, and had two home games against the Montana schools and then the sh!t hit the fan. We've gone 1-8 since then, and it looks like a totally different team. I think you may be right, maybe the preseason acolades went to their heads... Whatever it is, I can see a huge difference in play since that point. They settle for too many threes, can't run the half court offense, and they're flat out too small. Coach Jenkins, for some unknown reason enjoys playing 5 Guards at a time (Freeman(5'10), Leath(6'1), Woods(6"5), Harris(6'4), Bausley(6'6)) and we get out rebounded and killed on the inside. I would really like to see more Lange, Beekman, Adams and Perry.
Click to expand...

I think Jenkins overcoaches at times, especially when it comes to substitution of players. I don't know how those guys can even work up a sweat because your rotations seem to be 2 minutes at best. I have been to 3 Sac games this year and the players don't ever seem to get in rhythm because of it. As for offensive sets, to be honest it doesn't seem like Sac even has an offense. These guys do way too much one on one stuff, it is no wonder why guys are pointing fingers. Bausley would be very tough if they posted him up instead of him trying to go one on one which allows weakside help too easily because he isn't the quickets cat on the court. He usually has a smaller guy guarding him so why don't they run some sets where he can post up? Harris is so athletic he can post up anyone guarding him, yet he ends up taking too many perimeter shots. Very confusing for a team with some incredibly athletic guys.
 
Kadeezy said:
It's hard for me to agrue with that. When we came out 13-5, I was more than excited. We were getting Jason Harris back, and had two home games against the Montana schools and then the sh!t hit the fan. We've gone 1-8 since then, and it looks like a totally different team. I think you may be right, maybe the preseason acolades went to their heads... Whatever it is, I can see a huge difference in play since that point. They settle for too many threes, can't run the half court offense, and they're flat out too small. Coach Jenkins, for some unknown reason enjoys playing 5 Guards at a time (Freeman(5'10), Leath(6'1), Woods(6"5), Harris(6'4), Bausley(6'6)) and we get out rebounded and killed on the inside. I would really like to see more Lange, Beekman, Adams and Perry.
Click to expand...

wow...that sounds familiar. :crybaby:
 
Kadeezy said:
Sac State is not a lock at number 5 yet. We can still host a home playoff game.

From the BSC: "Montana State and Sacramento State are still in the hunt for the fourth spot. The two teams meet in Bozeman on Monday night. The winner will gain the No. 4 seed."
Click to expand...

Right...I missed that one. It depends on the tie-breaker between ISU and PSU. IF ISU finished ahead of PSU, then MSU gets 4th. If PSU finished ahead of ISU, then SAC gets 4th.

So Sacramento State has to win, and then have ISU lose to EWU.

There is a 25% chance that SAC can end up 4th.
 
Updated after last night's games:

NAU is 1st.

UM is 2nd.

EWU is 3rd.

Montana State:
4th - 75%
5th - 25%

A win over SAC or an ISU win would clinch 4th.

Sacramento State:
4th - 25%
5th - 75%

Sacramento State needs to win at MSU, and have EWU beat ISU in order to clinch 4th.

It's a 50-50 shot for the 6th spot. ISU controls their destiny. Win and they're in. All PSU can do is root for EWU.
 
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