Cat week is here once again. Unlike prior meetings of late where the winning team either gets to the playoffs or punched out the hopes for the other team to make it, both UM and MSU are already in based on their bodies of work. What’s on the line here is a playoff seed, where one could argue UM might still get one with a loss, it’s a pretty easy assumption that whichever team wins this Saturday will be in the top-8 field to grab a playoff seed.
Both teams are on a bit of a roll here, Montana has won 4 games in a row beating EWU, PSU, UI, and WSU. While MSU has won 3 in a row beating UNC, SUU, and UCD. For Montana this will mark the 4th game this year against a team currently ranked, and the 3rd game against another top-10 team. (Davis was 4 when we met, Sac 15, Weber 3, and MSU presumably 10 or better once polls come out).
Of course as Griz fans we’re all too easily reminded of the painful loss last year and I would expect even though we hear externally that this Griz team doesn’t talk about last year… there will be some weight and reminder placed upon that memory through the week.
As we’re all aware, home field doesn’t necessarily mean much of late in this rivalry. Going back to 2010 Montana is 3-1 when playing in Bozeman, while MSU is 4-1 playing in Missoula.
Bozeman State Bobcats 8-3
10-45 loss @ Texas Tech: Generally went as expected, MSU was held to under 300 total yards while TTU put up nearly 700. The cats did have it at 14-7 into the 2nd quarter, but clearly just couldn’t keep pace.
38-17 win vs SE Missouri State: “SEMO” then ranked 12th (currently 15th) came to Bozeman and provided the cats under Jeff Choate their biggest non-rivalry win they’ve seen. The game was tied 10-10 at the half but MSU exploded in the 3rd quarter scoring 28 unanswered points. Over the stretch of MSU’s points explosion their defense forced SEMO to three 3 and outs in a row, with a net of negative yards on each drive. The cats held SEMO to less than 250 total yards of offense while piling up 450 of their own.
23-14 win @ Western Illinois: It was a slow start for the cats, tied 7-7 at the half and with 6 consecutive drives either being a 3 and out and punt, or on one a lost fumble. MSU got it going a bit into the 3rd, scoring 10 more points to get up 17-7, but they just couldn’t put WIU away, mostly due to stalled drives that would result in fieldgoals instead of TDs. WIU would score again to cut the lead to 17-14 but the cats would add 6 more points in the 4th and keep WIU from scoring again, WIU’s 4th quarter drives went; lost fumble, missed fieldgoal, turnover on downs.
56-21 win vs Norfolk State: The cats were very consistent, scoring 14 points in each quarter. They made the change from Bauman to Rovig at QB and he had a good day, throwing for 4 TDs, but the real big stat was the cat ground game, which had 449 total rushing yards and 3 guys with over 100 yards in the game.
49-31 win vs Northern Arizona: NAU had a 31-14 lead about 4 minutes into the 2nd half… and then it all fell apart (seems to be NAU’s M.O. this year). The cats, on their strong ground game, scored 35 unanswered points to win the game going away. It started though with a Troy Andersen fumble recovery for a TD and then a boatload of rushing yards and rushing TDs in the 4th. MSU had 340 rushing yards and overcame 3 lost turnovers to put NAU away and win the game going away.
34-28 win @ Cal Poly: Won in overtime the cats looked like they were going to pull away from Poly, up 28-7 as the 4th quarter started. However, Poly scored 21 points to force OT. The cats missed a fieldgoal to win it in regulation, but Poly tossed a pick to erase any hope they would have to end it as well. In OT Poly, who was running well, suddenly couldn’t find any traction, went backwards, and missed a 48 yard fieldgoal attempt. The cats, not messing around, brought in Travis Jonsen to run the option and 3 plays later he was in the endzone.
21-34 loss vs Sacramento State: Like everyone except Weber State, the cats got their dose of a beating by Sac State. They kept the game far closer than Montana would the next week, but had issues stopping Sac on 3rd downs (Sac went 9-13) and the cats wound up losing an interception on the Sac 22, and had 2 later turnovers on downs, both in the Sac redzone. Sac really controlled the clock, they held the ball for almost 12:00 in the 3rd quarter alone, and just really minimalized the cats ability to work in a comeback.
12-16 loss @ North Dakota: The eventual difference in this game would come on a UND blocked punt that resulted in a recovered TD with 4:21 left in the game. The box score sure looks funky, the cats had 220 rushing, but just 97 passing, while UND had only 60 on the ground, but 256 passing… which resulted in both teams having 316 yards. It was a pretty rough day for Rovig, just 77 yards passing and Ifanse at RB had just 5 touches for 10 yards.
42-7 win vs Southern Utah: The cats scored all 42 of their points in the first half, they finished with 176 rushing, 206 passing, and were +4 in turnovers on the day.
45-14 win @ Northern Colorado: 7-7 into the 2nd quarter was UNC’s only really thing to hang onto in this game. From there the cats would score 38 unanswered in the game, on the heels of 451 rushing yards, to cruise to an easy win.
27-17 win @ UC Davis: Knowing the weight of this game the cats came away with a big win on the road to lock in their playoff ticket and end Davis’s slim post-season hopes. Davis had a slim 17-14 lead starting the 4th and the game was tied 17-17 midway through the 4th, but Davis would basically go from a 3 point lead to a 10 point deficit while their offense would get shut down by the cat defense. This was maybe one of the better balanced showings on offense, with 285 rushing and about 220 passing. Davis had 175 rushing and 273 passing, but the cats ball control and their tough late defense would do them in.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game Montana (171 for MSU vs 300 for UM)
Rushing yards per game MSU (260 for MSU vs 160 for UM)
Total offense Montana (431 for MSU vs 460 for UM)
Passing yards allowed per game MSU (242 for MSU vs 296 for UM)
Rushing yards allowed per game Montana (127 for MSU vs 113 for UM)
Total defense MSU (369 for MSU vs 409 for UM)
3-3 tie here, interestingly enough each teams advantages on offense are their opponents advantage on defense.
Offense points scored Montana (32.5 for MSU vs 37.9 for UM)
Defense points allowed MSU (22.2 for MSU vs 23.5 for UM)
Turnover margin MSU – (+8 for MSU / +7 for Montana)
Fieldgoal % Montana (66% for MSU vs 75% for UM)
Punt Returns Montana (7.9 yards for MSU vs 16.2 yards for UM)
Kick Returns Montana (19.5 yards for MSU vs 21.7 yards for UM)
T.O.P. MSU (30:12 for MSU vs 29:48 for UM)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) Montana (67% MSU / 60% UM)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) MSU (78% MSU / 68% UM)
3rd down offense Montana – (33% for MSU / 46% for UM)
3rd down defense Montana – (36% allowed for MSU vs 34% allowed for UM)
The Griz add 7 while the cats add 4, this finishes the total at 10-7 in favor of Montana
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Players to Watch:
#10 Travis Jonsen, WR: This guy really found his stride this season. A former Oregon QB he’s the 2nd leading receiver on the team with 445 yards and 1 TD through the air. He also still lines up as QB and runs the zone-read and will take some handoffs too. He’s the 2nd leading rusher on the team with 432 yards and 6 TDs. Oh yeah and he’s 4-5 passing with 1 passing TD as well. The dude does it all.
#85 Kevin Kassis, WR: The senior receiver leads the team with 623 yards and 3 receiving TDs. He’s got 29 rushing yards, and he’s even thrown a TD pass.
#22 Isaiah Ifanse, RB: Ifanse’s season has been choppy due to some injuries but he put up some respectable numbers this last week against Davis and when healthy he’s one of the very best backs in the conference. In 8 games this year he’s got just 347 yards and 1 TD
#12 Tucker Rovig, QB: It’s been an up-down year but Rovig is coming off maybe his best game. Rovig took back the helm of starter after a few weeks behind Casey Bauman, his stat line shows him for an average of 147 passing per game, 10 TDs to 4 INTs. He’s a scrambler too, has 2 TDs rushing and before you back out yards lost on mostly sacks, over 100 gained on the ground.
#28 Logan Jones, RB: This seems to be what MSU does annually, if they have a running back go down, they just snap in another. Jones, a senior from Kalispell, has made the most of his time at RB, leading the team with 667 yards and 6 TDs on the ground. If Ifanse is too dinged up, expect some of Jones.
#15 Troy Andersen, RB/LB: “Mr. Everything” for the cats. We all know Troy too well, this year the team moved him back to his true position, linebacker, but he’s taken plenty of reps on both sides of the ball. Troy is beat the hell up this season from an early ankle injury to currently battling more leg and shoulder issues, but he’s tough as hell and playing through them. We’ll see him everywhere on the field, he’s got 353 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs. He’s thrown a TD pass as well. He also is 2nd on the team in tackles with 54, he’s got 11.5 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, and 1 interception.
#37 Bryce Sterk, Edge: While it’s been pointed out his in-conference stats aren’t as flashy, the guy is still one of the most disruptive pass rushers in the conference. He’s 3rd best on the team with 51 tackles, he has 15 TFLs and 11 sacks.
#96 Amandre Williams, DE: A 6-2, 235 defensive end he has 42 tackles an 12 TFLs with that, but just 1.5 sacks. He has 2 INTs and 1 recovered fumble. I believe he’s a UW transfer.
#47 Callahan O’Reilly, LB: The true sophomore linebacker leads the team with 66 tackles, he’s got 3.5 TFLs and 1 sack.
#41 Brayden Konkol, S: A pre-season all conference selection, the MSU safety is 4th best on the team, tied with Sterk with 51 tackles, he has 2 fumble recoveries, 1 interception, and is 2nd best on the team with 7 passes defended.
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Keys to a Grizzly Victory
1. Don’t get fooled (too much). If anything the stats and wide array of contributors at all spots for MSU shows how much they move guys around and fool teams with trickery a lot. They have to be pretty excited to test a Grizzly secondary that has continually shown issues with maintaining coverage and not getting fooled. I’m expecting a lot of play-fakes and attempts to trick the Grizzly secondary that tends to get caught on their heels a little too much. I’d put the over/under of MSU trick plays on Saturday at 7.
2. Take away their running game. Montana did this against Weber, however Weber was clearly hobbled with Davis not at full strength and they’re a pretty straight-forward rushing team. MSU will go power, they’ll go option / zone-read, they’ll do end-arounds, and they’ll have 5 to 7 different ball carriers. The assignment for the Grizzly defense to not only contain, but to figure out, what MSU is throwing at them is vitally important. The Griz haven’t faced as diverse of a rushing offense, they could have issues here.
3. Positive turnover margin. Just like the Weber game, can’t give away more than you take away. Turnovers can be emotional boosts and momentum killers, and reflect on who is executing better. This will be heavily charged, as always, the fewer mistakes the better. One interesting thing, while Rovig’s overall passing numbers really mirror Constantine’s and Petrino’s in many cases, he’s only thrown 4 picks, he does make fewer mistakes than the prior 2 QB’s we’ve seen.
4. Keep the passing game going. What’s interesting is that when you look at conference only stats, MSU defense statistically shows better numbers than Weber’s. Now I know they didn’t play the same schedule so there’s that, but regardless the Griz are facing a statistically better pass defense, better rush defense, and better scoring defense (in conference) than the one they just faced.
5. JLM needs to have his best game. Jerry’s been a little hot and cold of late, but this game could set up some major opportunities for him. MSU’s punter has the best net and their coverage teams are solid, he could have some deep punts that are returnable, and he’ll have some opportunities for a mis-match in the slot. Can he put together his best game of the season? If so, big things should happen for Montana.
6. DOLA. Yep, said it. Need to do what they’ve been doing for weeks, and then some. Control that trench, keep Sneed clean, push the pile, give Knight and Ostmo lanes, and win the day. The O-line was blown up on the last play of the Griz-cat game last year, let’s make this a revenge game. Easier said than done, MSU’s defense is damn good, but I’m hoping these guys are ready for the challenge. 125+ rushing / less than 3 sacks allowed ideally.
7. Keep your cool and execute. In these games emotional mistakes can be killer. While we have more experience this year on our side of the ball, we will have a handful of guys that we’re relying on playing in their first brawl.
8. Be a full-game team, not a 2nd half team. MSU stats do show that they tend to build a lead and hold it (that’s the way they’re built) but they do tend to allow teams to work their way back as the game goes on. That might be a little skewed with a few games they had settled by the 3rd quarter and then gave up some garbage time points. Montana needs to put together a game where they can keep pace and then out-pace the cats as things go on. This is yet another team that will jump up and slow the game down. Montana can’t put themselves into a big hole and hope they can work their way back.
9. Don’t let Troy Andersen run wild. He won’t have as many touches, but he still makes those damn things count. I honestly don’t know “how” to stop him, but I think our defense will be better equipped for it this year.
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This game feels fairly even to me, much like prior ones have been of late. I think the cats ability to confuse defenses will be set up quite well to have some big plays against Montana on Saturday, plus their defense, statistically, could prove an even slightly more challenging task that Weber’s did. The cats secondary is better than Weber’s and I’d assume they’ll probably be blanketing Toure to make sure he doesn’t have another near-200 yard and 3 TD game. There’s a lot that concerns me going into this game, add in the wave of emotion that will swing the cats team when they presumably rip off some big plays or hit pay dirt on some inevitable trick play.
However this Grizzly team feels, to me, that it has been building for this game and this moment. The pain of last year’s end and the ultimate goal of RTD carries to, and hopefully through this weekend. I’m unsure a few players health for this weekend, but both teams are dealing with that at this point, it’s time to bring the divide trophy back home. I think when you watch the emotions and reactions from this team, especially it’s key seniors, you know they’re still building on something special. This coaching staff will have them prepared and will have some tricks of their own ready to go. This game will be maybe one of the more physical games we’ll see and both teams know that a win will ensure a week off as well.
The Pride and Tradition of the Montana Grizzlies will not be entrusted to the timid or weak.
Griz win, 24-21
FTC!
GO GRIZ!!
