Bozeman State Bobcats Scouting Report

[NorthEndZoneDan]

I'm thinking turnovers and a couple thousand of my buddies in the NEZ as being key, that and some fireball of course!

I've been doing voice exercises all week.

we are in good shape then, I've been drinking all week

 

[Ursus1]

Big difference in MSU vs. UNI team we played is QB speed. This guy is probably fastest guy on the field for either team....one missed tackle and he could go the distance. Having watched the Griz miss a ton of tackles this year makes me very nervous. Gang up and sell out to stop the big backs and that guy will torch us with a keeper if one player is out of position or misses. Our man to man DBs will be running down the field chasing wide receivers while their QB is gaining on them with the damn ball in his hands. If it comes to a kicking game we are screwed, their FRESHMAN from Missoula (who Stitt turned down ) is very solid and Griz kicking is very suspect. I also think Choate will throw a trick play or two in, and for some reason the Griz always bite. Needs to win: turnovers in favor, run game and playing assignment football on defense (and that means getting the play call early and to all players with no confusion like has occurred). Athletes are in Griz favor, home field in favor so need to play well and smart to win.....not needing great play, but can't be stupid either.

 

[G-BEARS]

They haven't been able to pass the ball this season. If they can on saturday it will be a good game. I don't think they will, even though our secondary is poor. Therefore, we will focus on stopping the run and succeed as we did early in the season before Sanders and our corners were exposed. If we can score on offense this game won't be close, it really depends on how much pressure they can get on our qb(s). If they consistently get pressure on Gustafson if he plays, we are in a lot of trouble. Never worried about cat-griz though when it comes down to being in the stands (thinking with my heart), we'll stomp em.

 

[Grisly Fan]

I would like to see the Griz impose their will on the Bobcats; do exactly what they want to do and challenge the Cats to stop them. That attitude harkens back to Air Read days when the Griz came with 5 wideouts and everyone knew that they were going to pass but they were incredibly difficult to stop anyway. I really felt the game plan for UNC was incredibly timid and over-thought. It seemed that they were trying to anticipate and react to what UNC was going to do rather than do what the Griz wanted to do. DOMINATE! I think the Griz have the talent but lack the attitude. Go get 'em Griz!

 

[IntuitiveGriz]

Someone refresh my memory, as perhaps I had too many 'numb the pain' beers last Saturday. Didn't UNC totally have their way with us on the ground on their final drive?

yep

They did. So much so that coach Stitt said on the Grizzly Sports Report tv show that they went through us "like we were a middle school team".

 

[IntuitiveGriz]

Big difference in MSU vs. UNI team we played is QB speed. This guy is probably fastest guy on the field for either team....one missed tackle and he could go the distance. Having watched the Griz miss a ton of tackles this year makes me very nervous. Gang up and sell out to stop the big backs and that guy will torch us with a keeper if one player is out of position or misses. Our man to man DBs will be running down the field chasing wide receivers while their QB is gaining on them with the damn ball in his hands. If it comes to a kicking game we are screwed, their FRESHMAN from Missoula (who Stitt turned down ) is very solid and Griz kicking is very suspect. I also think Choate will throw a trick play or two in, and for some reason the Griz always bite. Needs to win: turnovers in favor, run game and playing assignment football on defense (and that means getting the play call early and to all players with no confusion like has occurred). Athletes are in Griz favor, home field in favor so need to play well and smart to win.....not needing great play, but can't be stupid either.

:agree: With your whole post.

I'd like to add that Peppinger (msu kicker from Missoula) has had a solid year thus far. If I remember correctly he is 8 for 10 on field goals, with a long of 44. So no "long" makes, but...

 

[birdieman]

Great analysis, BW..
"Improve red zone efficiency. The Grizzly red zone efficiency has been slipping both offensively and defensively for weeks now. That needs to get corrected for a win against the cats. Statistically MSU is better than UM on both sides of the ball once in the red zone."
Not moving the ball with any consistency last week when we got down there, even with all the other issues(special teams, missed tackles, dropped balls, muffs, etc., etc.) was what I saw as the reason for losing against a much inferior team. Not having Jeremy Calhoun has really set us back in the red zone. Stitt has got to get away from his "dink and dunk" plays in the red zone, and challenge the OL to resurrect some long overdue DOLA on what I have seen as a weak D-Line from State.

" Fewer drops. It seems the Griz WRs make plays at home and don’t (so much) on the road, so for this weekend that would probably be a good thing. Less drops, more big plays."
I agree with your assessment, BW, look for the Griz to go after their young DB's early and often, especially if BG is QB. Our young receivers need to step up and make some plays. On a side note, anybody know the situation with senior WR transfer Lane Hovey? We sit behind the Griz bench and never saw him in the ISU game, either in the game or dressed out..Same with last week-end. Definitely the possession receiver we need. Know he wasn't seeing a lot of action except on special teams, but some senior leadership for that corp could only help.

GO GRIZ!!!!

 

[krammer]

if we can get our qb, who ever it is, to throw over the linebackers and in front of the dbs on slants where the holes are, DOWN FIELD, then we roll..........three yards by our 180 pound backs (love their heart, but they are still 5'8' and 180 pds) and the horizontal pass game will get us beat.........bingham and the o/l are keys to this game imo....also thanks b/g for the write up....solid work....

 

[Yukon]

How many big plays will Montana give up this weekend?

5

 

[umwsufan]

Cat week. You’ve got two teams coming to this game that have had plenty of challenges this season and are looking to this one game to notch off a goal and go out with some good vibes this off-season. The bobcats have had a terribly disappointing year on the field, winning their first conference game last week against UC Davis, snapping a 6 game skid. And while it’s not much, it’s something, and it has the cats coming to Missoula with some renewed confidence and hopes to end their season with a rivalry win. Of course it’s especially important for their defense, as their DC Ty Gregorak returns with hopes to shut down Stitt’s offense.

On the other side there’s Montana, who needed to win their last 3 to get to the playoffs, but then dropped last week’s road game against UNC – putting the playoff picture in a really shaky, if not very difficult, ground. While the Griz are needing to regroup fast they’re hoping for the return of their starting QB, Brady Gustafson and possibly the health of a few other key players too. This team had some high hopes to compete for the conference title and get into the playoffs on a roll, but now this weekends game very well could be their last.

Bozeman State Bobcats 3-7

17-20 loss @Idaho Idaho held a 17-7 1st quarter lead and was looking to be in a good spot to chalk up a big win. But after scoring 17 points on their first 4 possessions they only put up 3 most on their next 10 possessions. They had 2 turnovers on downs, lost a fumble, tossed a pick, and had 4 consecutive 3 and outs. The cats fought their way back into the game mostly on the hard running of Chad Newell. The cats had the ball for over 36:00 of TOP and held Idaho to just 2 for 11 on 3rd down. MSU’s final drive ended up punting the ball away with 4:25 left in the game. Idaho was able to run the clock out, aided by a somewhat questionable defensive holding penalty on a 3rd down running play.

27-24 win vs Bryant MSU’s defense forced 5 total turnovers, 3 picks and 2 fumble recoveries. Despite that Bryant stayed in the game, passing for 370 yards. The MSU offense, without Chad Newell, had just 265 total yards on the day. Bryant’s last drive ended with a pick and MSU ran about 4:00 off the clock to hold on to the win. Bryant is currently 4-6 and did play a common opponent to the Griz, Saint Francis, where they lost 38-3.

55-0 win vs Western Oregon D2 bodybag game, MSU 5 more turnovers, piled up 430 total yards, and only let WOU cross the 50 yard line twice in the whole game.

15-17 loss vs North Dakota UND came to Bozeman and got all they could handle from a scappy cats team. It was 10-9 UND until they opened up a 17-9 lead with a 60 yard TD run with 2:30 left in the game. The cats got the ball back and scored quickly. Then they successfully completed the on-sides kick but a few plays later lost possession on an interception. However, their defense held UND and forced a punt (all of this with less than 1:30 in the game. MSU got the ball back with no time outs and about 50 seconds left in the game but couldn’t put a good drive together and lost the game. MSU out-gained UND 400 yards to 350 yards but had 5 lost turnovers in the game. As we all know UND is vying to share the conference title with EWU and this was a game the cats very much could have / should have won

38-41 loss @ Sac State Caught the 4th quarter of this MSU melt-down. The cats were up 38-21 heading into the 4th quarter and let Sac rattle off 20 points, including the game winning TD with just 15 seconds left. Both teams had about 510 yards, MSU’s mostly came from 385 rushing yards while Sac’s game from 356 passing yards. This was the first game where MSU dual-threat QB Chris Murray took over a bulk of the offense. Murray had nearly 190 rushing and 105 passing and ran for 3 TDs.

14-20 loss vs NAU NAU build up a 20 point lead and almost saw it entirely vanish with a 2nd half MSU surge. The cats first half was bad, it looks like about 90-ish total yards of offense, a fumble lost, a turnover on downs, and 4 punts. In the 2nd half. It appears that Bruggeman was the QB for most, but not all of the 1st half drives. MSU’s 3rd quarter didn’t start well either, a lost fumble on the kickoff that NAU turned into a TD and then a lost fumble by Murray. After that though their offense settled in and Murray lead two consecutive TD drives getting the score to 20-14. Then each team traded a handful of stalled drives until MSU’s final possession, where they got down the to the NAU 35 yard line where Murray was then sacked and lost a fumble, effectively ending the game. MSU’s offense thanks to a rough 1st half finished with just about 290 total yards, while NAU had 405 yards. MSU’s 3 lost fumbles were the difference, one lead to an NAU TD and the other ended a would-be go-ahead score at the end of the game.

27-45 loss @ Weber State Rough game for the cats as they found themselves down 42-14 at the half. Weebs passed for 270, ran for 170, and forced 4 turnovers, they also held the ball for 37:02 TOP. Chris Murray played the whole game and was responsible for 3 of the 4 turnovers.

17-41 loss vs EWU This one was looking like another classic MSU vs EWU shootout, it was tied 14-14 at the end of the first half. MSU grabbed a 17-14 lead and then it fell apart for them, as EWU scored the final 27 points of the game from there on out. EWU ran for just 76 but passed for 520 yards, while MSU ran for 250 and passed for 100. 5 more turnovers for the cats, 2 fumbles and 2 picks for Murray, 1 pick for Bruggeman.

21-38 loss @ SUU This was a close one for a while but SUU pulled away late. It was tied 14-14 at the half and SUU didn’t open up a double digit lead until 5:00 left in the 3rd. Neither team showed much on offense, 380 for the cats and 370 for SUU… total, but once again turnovers killed MSU. 4 interceptions (3 by Murray, 1 by Bruggeman). Three were thrown on their own side of the field and the 4th was thrown in the SUU red zone.

27-13 win vs UCD The cats first conference win, UCD opened a 10-3 early lead but the cats used a little trickery (WR throwing a TD pass) and some major ground-game (260 rushing) to take over the game and win it. UCD had 312 yards of offense, MSU about 350


General Stats

Major categories
Pass YPG: Montana 340 ypg - MSU 168 ypg
Rush YPG: Montana 160 ypg - MSU 196 ypg
Total YPG: Montana 500 ypg - MSU 394 ypg
Offense PPG: Montana 41.7 ppg - MSU 25.8 ppg
Defense PPG: Montana 27.3 ppg - MSU 25.9 ppg
Turnover Margin: Montana +2 - MSU -8

Additional categories
TOP: Montana 31:58 - MSU 28:53
Offense Red Zone TD%: Montana 68% - MSU 69%
Defense Red Zone TD%: Montana 68% - MSU 63%
Offense 3rd down %: Montana 45% - MSU 33%
Defense 3rd down %: Montana 27% - MSU 37%
Total Plays per game: Montana 82 - MSU 66

Total statistical advantage Montana 8 / MSU 4

Players to Watch

#17 Chad Newell, RB – Newell sure appears to be the heart and soul of the Bobcats offense. A big and tough bruiser of a running back at 6-1, 225, he’s averaging about 80 yards rushing and 6 yards receiving per game and has 7 total TDs this year. He missed two games early in the season but has been on a pretty good roll recently.

#8 Chris Murray, QB – Murray is the cats dual-threat QB who took the starting role on halfway through the season. He’s a true freshman and his in-game errors have shown that, but he’s also a very dangerous runner. He leads the team in rushing yards (718) and rushing TDs (10). He’s passing for an average of 75 yards per game and has 6 TDs to 8 INTs. Completion % isn’t good (46.9%) but he’s had a ton of issues with WRs dropping passes.

#82 Mitch Herbert, WR – Herbert is the one main-stay of the Cats receiver corps it seems. He’s the only WR with more than 200 yards. He’s got 465 this year and a team-high in TDs with 3. He’s also 0-2 passing…

#2 Gunnar Brekke, RB – Brekke is well known among Griz Nation, a Griz recruit that flipped to MSU amidst the dregs of UM’s down years. Brekke is a senior, this is his last chance to notch a W against Montana. He’s averaging 42 yards rushing and 11.2 yards per game receiving and has 3 total TDs. He’s 3rd on the team in total receptions.

#3 Justin Paige, WR – Ineffectiveness at QB has really cost Paige another solid season. This year he’s got just 190 receiving yards and 2 TDs. That’s less than half of his 2015 total (453 yards and 4 TDs)

#23 Nick LaSane, RB – LaSane rounds out the stable of MSU rushers. He’s got 201 rushing and 1 TD this year.

#49 Mac Bignell, LB – Probably the best defender MSU has. Bignell leads the team by a wide margin in tackles with 91, he’s got 13.5 TFLs and 3 sacks. He’s also forced 2 fumbles, recovered 2 fumbles, and is tied for 3rd on the team in pass breakups.

#22 John Walker, CB – A transfer from Colorado Walker is someone that’ll be very active against our passing game. He’s got 3 picks this season and 7 pass break ups to go with 30 total tackles.

#59 Fletcher Collins, LB – a 6-2, 220 pound linebacker Collins has 74 tackles, 7 TFLS, and 1 sack. Like Bignell he’s forced 2 fumbles and recovered 2 fumbles.

#10 Bryson McCabe, DB – Another guy that’ll look to really disrupt the passing game. McCabe leads the team with 10 pass breakups, he’s also 3rd on the team with 73 tackles! He’s got 1 pick and 3 forced fumbles this season.


Keys to a Grizzly Victory

- Don’t let Murray run wild. MSU has to like what they’ll see on film against Semore’s defense looking back at the wild success Cal Poly had and the success other teams like NAU and ISU had with some running plays including some read-option stuff. Murray isn’t the biggest threat in the passing game but can open up holes in the defense with his feet.

- Try to force Murray and Bruggeman into having a Bleskin-like day. What’s been the single largest issues for MSU is a crap-ton of bad turnovers. Murray loses fumbles and both him and Bruggemen have thrown a lot of picks. The Grizzly defense needs to force 3 or more turnovers combined from these two.

- Improve red zone efficiency. The Grizzly red zone efficiency has been slipping both offensively and defensively for weeks now. That needs to get corrected for a win against the cats. Statistically MSU is better than UM on both sides of the ball once in the red zone.

- Make PATs and make closer-in fieldgoals when needed.

- Attack the soft spots of MSU’s defense. MSU has shown to have issues with passing offenses. With hopefully a healthy Gus back and a rejuvenated offense the passing game needs to be more dynamic than it was last week. Stretch the field so the defense isn’t hopping on the swing passes, play to mis-matches, keep them on their heels.

- 175+ on the ground. The Grizzly ground game, and thus their TOP has been gradually improving. With a strong rush game and good clock control the Griz can limit MSU’s opportunities on offense and keep the clock running while moving the ball.

- Smack Newell hard, because he’s going to do that to our LBs. Newell might be the most punishing runner the Griz will have faced all season. Need to return just as much has he dishes out.

- Keep composure, play smart, don’t hurt the team. We’ve seen games and instances were Grizzly players have had lapses in judgement and composure – one which cost the offense a shot at getting the ball back. With a rivalry game and the frustrations of last week on their mind the Griz MUST keep cool as best as possible.

- Fewer drops. It seems the Griz WRs make plays at home and don’t (so much) on the road, so for this weekend that would probably be a good thing. Less drops, more big plays.


-------------------

I put this one twitter last night, the cats are much closer to being 6-4 just like the Griz than you think. Two failed game-winning drives against UND and NAU and a total 4th quarter meltdown with a last second loss at Sac. Flip those and they’re right there with our Griz. (However as others pointed out the Griz themselves are probably a few plays themselves away from being just a 2 loss team).

MSU additionally has had a significantly more difficult conference schedule. After Saturday they’ll have played every top Big Sky team except Cal Poly and UNC. By the end of the season the cats have played the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th (twice – tied) and 5th (us) team in the conference. The combined record of their in-conference foes is 44-37. While the combined record of Grizzly conference opponents is 38-42.

The brawl is always a toss-up, however the Griz have had great fortune playing at home this season, outscoring opponents 281-109 (average 56 to 22). While the cats on the road are being outscored 144-117 (average 36 to 29).

You’ve got some fascinating stories with this game, particularly the return of Ty Gregorak to Wa Griz. His departure wasn’t so much of a shock, but the team he went to was. Some Griz players were quick to twitter with support while others showed disgust. Fans were split about it too. Gregorak has the cats defense on the right path, they’re playing better than they were the year before, and still have room to improve. MSU has the 2nd best scoring defense in the Big Sky, 5th best total defense, 5th best rushing defense, 6th best passing defense, and 3rd best 3rd down defense. MSU’s main issue has been QB pressure, their D-line has a lot of youth and has dealt with a few losses to injury. You can bet that they’ll be looking to play their best game of the season on Saturday for their coach so he can get the last laugh of the year against his former boss and former program.

I’m worried about a slow start for Montana here, especially after last week and some big momentum swings for MSU. This one is going to be a tight game I fear. I’ll say the home team gets this, but it’ll go to the wire. 33-28 Griz win.


GO GRIZ!

Brint, you wrote that the Griz are hoping for the return of starting QB BG. Do you have any insider info on who will be quarterbacking the Griz Saturday?

 

[umwsufan]

Brint, do you have any insider information on who will be quarterbacking the Griz Saturday?

 

[BWahlberg]

Brint, do you have any insider information on who will be quarterbacking the Griz Saturday?

Nope... it's pretty quiet from coaches and players too.

 

[zengriz]

...if gustafson's healthy he gets the ball...
...he won it in spring and summer camp...
...it's his team..no other way to look at it...

...f t c...

... ...

 

[garizzalies]

Brady will start
Calhoun is back
Purdy gets all kicks
Horner's not ready yet
Sanders at S

I feel much better about this game. Or maybe it's just the booze. Either way I love the butte social. 30 year tradition. No other school's staff travels 120 miles on icy roads at night in the middle of rivalry week to answer questions from the surliest group of supporters

 

[CatzWillRise]

Man, there are 4 pages on "Colorado School of Mines" and only 2 here.

Not a whole lot on BN either for actual football discussion. Both fanbases are a little sad about their respective seasons I suppose.

 

[VimSince03]

Man, there are 4 pages on "Colorado School of Mines" and only 2 here.

Not a whole lot on BN either for actual football discussion. Both fanbases are a little sad about their respective seasons I suppose.

Well...not really much to say. I think it's pretty clear which position MSU is defunct at: QB. If Murray plays well, we have a shot. If he doesn't, this game is going to look a whole lot like 2014.

 

[UMGriz75]

Well...not really much to say. I think it's pretty clear which position MSU is defunct at: QB. If Murray plays well, we have a shot. If he doesn't, this game is going to look a whole lot like 2014.

It's weird that, after years of having good Quarterbacks, sometimes better than the team as a whole, to see the Cats with just half of one, still going through puberty. Also somewhat odd to see, after all the hype by one of the most self-promoting quarterbacks in BSC history, poor Lame Duck Dakota Prukop sitting on a bench no longer even mentioned in Duck's media coverage. He could have really helped his team out this year and been the hero. Instead, he is relegated to watching other young men actually play the game.

It's like some Karmic Bad Movie that turned out badly for everyone.

 

[VimSince03]

Well...not really much to say. I think it's pretty clear which position MSU is defunct at: QB. If Murray plays well, we have a shot. If he doesn't, this game is going to look a whole lot like 2014.

It's weird that, after years of having good Quarterbacks, sometimes better than the team as a whole, to see the Cats with just half of one, still going through puberty. Also somewhat odd to see, after all the hype by one of the most self-promoting quarterbacks in BSC history, poor Lame Duck Dakota Prukop sitting on a bench no longer even mentioned in Duck's media coverage. He could have really helped his team out this year and been the hero. Instead, he is relegated to watching other young men actually play the game.

It's like some Karmic Bad Movie that turned out badly for everyone.

As the saying goes, "life goes on."

 

[Grisly Fan]

Well...not really much to say. I think it's pretty clear which position MSU is defunct at: QB. If Murray plays well, we have a shot. If he doesn't, this game is going to look a whole lot like 2014.

It's weird that, after years of having good Quarterbacks, sometimes better than the team as a whole, to see the Cats with just half of one, still going through puberty. Also somewhat odd to see, after all the hype by one of the most self-promoting quarterbacks in BSC history, poor Lame Duck Dakota Prukop sitting on a bench no longer even mentioned in Duck's media coverage. He could have really helped his team out this year and been the hero. Instead, he is relegated to watching other young men actually play the game.

It's like some Karmic Bad Movie that turned out badly for everyone.

As the saying goes, "life goes on."

I never wished Dakota anything but success but I felt that we wasn't the player that the Ducks was hoping he would be -- there was really a mismatch of expectations. Still, he stepped up to the plate and took a big swing. Can't fault him for that. Many people don't dare to be great and are satisfied with just what they have. I'm sure that looking back he won't regret his choice (though no doubt the Cats sure do).