Yes. Every time.Mavman said:Does Montana get in at 8-4?
Do cats get in if they lose next two games?
Does Davis get in if they win out?
Does EWU get in if they win out at 7-5?
uofmman1122 said:Yes. Every time.Mavman said:Does Montana get in at 8-4?
Do cats get in if they lose next two games?
Does Davis get in if they win out?
Does EWU get in if they win out at 7-5?
Maybe*
Maybe*
No. Only 6 DI wins.
*These really depend on what happens to the other bubble teams. The bubble is fairly weak, but crowded this season. MSU on a 2-game skid looks bad, and UCD on a 3-game streak looks good. In this situation, I think UCD gets in before MSU, but the Cats may still have a shot.
We could lose 45-0 both games, and still be in.BozAngelesGriz said:Depends on the nature of our losses if we do 0-2 to close the season. Losing bad to Weber at home and dropping the cat game by more than a score or two would likely put us out. Ten years ago that wouldn’t be the case
uofmman1122 said:Here's some real chaos:
Montana beats Weber, but loses to MSU.
Weber also somehow loses to Idaho State to finish 0-2.
EWU wins out.
MSU loses to Davis, but beats us.
Sac loses out to Idaho and UC Davis.
Davis wins out.
Place Team Conf. Total Streak
1. Montana 6-2 9-3 L1
2. Weber State 6-2 8-4 L2
3. Eastern Washington 6-2 7-5 W4
4. Montana State 5-3 8-4 W1
5. UC Davis 5-3 7-5 W3
6. Sacramento State 5-3 7-5 L2
Somehow in this situation, EWU wins a share of the conference title, but still is sweating on the bubble. You could make an argument that all of these teams should be in the playoffs. UM, WSU, and MSU are locks here, and I honestly can't decide which teams (if any!) out of UCD, EWU, and Sac I'd leave out.
Nuts.
uofmman1122 said:Yes. Every time.Mavman said:Does Montana get in at 8-4?
Do cats get in if they lose next two games?
Does Davis get in if they win out?
Does EWU get in if they win out at 7-5?
Maybe*
Maybe*
No. Only 6 DI wins.
*These really depend on what happens to the other bubble teams. The bubble is fairly weak, but crowded this season. MSU on a 2-game skid looks bad, and UCD on a 3-game streak looks good. In this situation, I think UCD gets in before MSU, but the Cats may still have a shot.
I think you're right, but if you had told me "EWU will win a share of the conference title, but miss the playoffs", I would not have believed you.grizindabox said:uofmman1122 said:Here's some real chaos:
Montana beats Weber, but loses to MSU.
Weber also somehow loses to Idaho State to finish 0-2.
EWU wins out.
MSU loses to Davis, but beats us.
Sac loses out to Idaho and UC Davis.
Davis wins out.
Place Team Conf. Total Streak
1. Montana 6-2 9-3 L1
2. Weber State 6-2 8-4 L2
3. Eastern Washington 6-2 7-5 W4
4. Montana State 5-3 8-4 W1
5. UC Davis 5-3 7-5 W3
6. Sacramento State 5-3 7-5 L2
Somehow in this situation, EWU wins a share of the conference title, but still is sweating on the bubble. You could make an argument that all of these teams should be in the playoffs. UM, WSU, and MSU are locks here, and I honestly can't decide which teams (if any!) out of UCD, EWU, and Sac I'd leave out.
Nuts.
The only way EWU gets in is if they get the AQ, which they wouldn't since UM would have beat both Weber and EWU in this scenario.
Someone made a pretty good, in-depth post about the playoff scenario on AGS:Brother Bear said:uofmman1122 said:Yes. Every time.Mavman said:Does Montana get in at 8-4?
Do cats get in if they lose next two games?
Does Davis get in if they win out?
Does EWU get in if they win out at 7-5?
Maybe*
Maybe*
No. Only 6 DI wins.
*These really depend on what happens to the other bubble teams. The bubble is fairly weak, but crowded this season. MSU on a 2-game skid looks bad, and UCD on a 3-game streak looks good. In this situation, I think UCD gets in before MSU, but the Cats may still have a shot.
At least 6 Division I wins is the guideline given to the committee when looking at teams to select. EWU can still get to six Division I wins, but I think being selected as an at-large is a long shot for them at this point. Will depend how their resume stacks up to other teams on the bubble in a few more weeks if they win out.
So we're likely looking at EWU having to beat out 8-4 Towson (not happening), 7-5 SIU (much better resume than EWU), and likely 9-3 SEMO (not gonna happen).I think something's gotta give here, though. Here's the teams I still have in the playoff hunt (*=Lock)
Weber State*
Montana*
Sacramento State (1W and in)
Montana State (1W and in)
UC Davis (Win out and Bubble)
Monmouth*
James Madison*
Villanova*
Towson (Should finish 8-4, beat Citadel, Maine)
New Hampshire (Would finish 7-4, wins over Maine, Albany, Villanova)
Maine (Would finish 7-5, wins over UNH, Albany, 5 game win streak to close)
Albany (Would finish 8-4, wins over UNH, Towson)
North Dakota (Would finish 7-4, good wins over Montana State, UC Davis and Sam Houston, could be a problem for Montana State if they finish at 8-4, definite problem if they finish at 7-5)
North Dakota State*
Northern Iowa*
South Dakota State (1W and in, host UNI and on road against SD in rivalry game)
SIU (in with a win over WIU next week; 7-5, but FBS win, maybe a little bit more vulnerable than I thought with loss to SEMO on resume and no other significant wins outside of UMass)
Illinois State (in with one win in final two after knocking off SDSU, also own win over SIU)
CCSU/Robert Morris*
Austin Peay (1 win in final 2 gives them the conference title)
SEMO (they look good; nice win on road against SIU non-conference, hot coming in, could be an issue if they're up against Montana State or North Dakota in a comparison, so probably want to win out)
Patriot League (everyone sucks)*
San Diego*
Furman* (IMO if the committee has them at 9, they're in, win or loss to Wofford)
Wofford (I think they need to beat the Citadel, Furman almost doesn't matter. If they beat Furman and lose to the Citadel, I think they may be on the outside looking in even though I'd choose them over Furman).
Citadel (Beat Wofford, they're in over them IMO)
Sam Houston (5-4 with bad loss to Lamar, beat Nicholls; win out and bubble because of loss to ND who's also potentially bubble)
UCA* (Still fine; those Austin Peay and FBS wins really hold up, took care of most of southland)
SELA (Suddenly look pretty good; 7-4 with a win over Nicholls might be good enough)
Nicholls (can get to 8-4 and presumably knock out SELA, win over UCA looks good, but then lost 17-0 to Sam Houston in a head scratcher).
McNeese (Can knock Nicholls out of the conversation IMO with a win next week and catapult themselves in).
To me that's 31 teams competing for 24 spots; I don't really think Kennesaw State is in the realistic conversation but you might. Now if we work through it, one of Maine/UNH is guaranteed to be eliminated; one of McNeese/Nicholls is guaranteed to be eliminated. That brings you down to 29 teams. UC Davis is an extreme longshot and would almost certainly take the spot of one of the two playoff teams they beat down the stretch, which probably brings you to 28 teams for a 24 team field. I don't see a ton of room for budging off of that. I doubt the Southland is getting 4 teams in, so that probably brings you down to 27. I don't think the SoCon is getting 3, so that brings you down to 26, and Maine would probably knock Albany out if Maine wins out and Albany wins out, so that's probably 25. That leaves one more vulnerable team; is it 8-4 Towson? 7-5 SIU? SEMO?
I don't see a great argument for any major bubble reaches in looking at what's left is all I'm saying. I think the only 5 loss team that has a shot is SIU, and for awhile I've just assumed they were in but perhaps they're not.
uofmman1122 said:I think you're right, but if you had told me "EWU will win a share of the conference title, but miss the playoffs", I would not have believed you.grizindabox said:uofmman1122 said:Here's some real chaos:
Montana beats Weber, but loses to MSU.
Weber also somehow loses to Idaho State to finish 0-2.
EWU wins out.
MSU loses to Davis, but beats us.
Sac loses out to Idaho and UC Davis.
Davis wins out.
Place Team Conf. Total Streak
1. Montana 6-2 9-3 L1
2. Weber State 6-2 8-4 L2
3. Eastern Washington 6-2 7-5 W4
4. Montana State 5-3 8-4 W1
5. UC Davis 5-3 7-5 W3
6. Sacramento State 5-3 7-5 L2
Somehow in this situation, EWU wins a share of the conference title, but still is sweating on the bubble. You could make an argument that all of these teams should be in the playoffs. UM, WSU, and MSU are locks here, and I honestly can't decide which teams (if any!) out of UCD, EWU, and Sac I'd leave out.
Nuts.
The only way EWU gets in is if they get the AQ, which they wouldn't since UM would have beat both Weber and EWU in this scenario.
That said, Weber going 0-2 to finish the year is likely not going to happen, so EWU's conference champion-ship has sailed, at this point.
Nice touch. :lol:uofmman1122 said:I think you're right, but if you had told me "EWU will win a share of the conference title, but miss the playoffs", I would not have believed you.grizindabox said:uofmman1122 said:Here's some real chaos:
Montana beats Weber, but loses to MSU.
Weber also somehow loses to Idaho State to finish 0-2.
EWU wins out.
MSU loses to Davis, but beats us.
Sac loses out to Idaho and UC Davis.
Davis wins out.
Place Team Conf. Total Streak
1. Montana 6-2 9-3 L1
2. Weber State 6-2 8-4 L2
3. Eastern Washington 6-2 7-5 W4
4. Montana State 5-3 8-4 W1
5. UC Davis 5-3 7-5 W3
6. Sacramento State 5-3 7-5 L2
Somehow in this situation, EWU wins a share of the conference title, but still is sweating on the bubble. You could make an argument that all of these teams should be in the playoffs. UM, WSU, and MSU are locks here, and I honestly can't decide which teams (if any!) out of UCD, EWU, and Sac I'd leave out.
Nuts.
The only way EWU gets in is if they get the AQ, which they wouldn't since UM would have beat both Weber and EWU in this scenario.
That said, Weber going 0-2 to finish the year is likely not going to happen, so EWU's conference champion-ship has sailed, at this point.
Fascinating scenario ... and, over the years, some strange things have indeed happened. However, remember that that hypothetical record for EWU would actually be 6-5 ... one win being against a D-II. Can't see a 6-5 Big Sky team getting an at-large bid. In fact, I can't really see any 6-win team getting an at-large bid this year, with so many teams playing twelve games. There are 20 teams that already have six or more D-I wins: 8 with seven (or more) and 12 with six. A realistic look at the next games of the 6-win teams suggests that at least half will win at least one more. That right there gives you 14 teams with 7 or more wins to fill all the at-large bid spots.CDAGRIZ said:That would be hilarious. Conference Co-Champs. No playoffs. Have a nice winter.uofmman1122 said:I think you're right, but if you had told me "EWU will win a share of the conference title, but miss the playoffs", I would not have believed you.grizindabox said:The only way EWU gets in is if they get the AQ, which they wouldn't since UM would have beat both Weber and EWU in this scenario.uofmman1122 said:Here's some real chaos:
Montana beats Weber, but loses to MSU.
Weber also somehow loses to Idaho State to finish 0-2.
EWU wins out.
MSU loses to Davis, but beats us.
Sac loses out to Idaho and UC Davis.
Davis wins out.
Place Team Conf. Total Streak
1. Montana 6-2 9-3 L1
2. Weber State 6-2 8-4 L2
3. Eastern Washington 6-2 7-5 W4
4. Montana State 5-3 8-4 W1
5. UC Davis 5-3 7-5 W3
6. Sacramento State 5-3 7-5 L2
Somehow in this situation, EWU wins a share of the conference title, but still is sweating on the bubble. You could make an argument that all of these teams should be in the playoffs. UM, WSU, and MSU are locks here, and I honestly can't decide which teams (if any!) out of UCD, EWU, and Sac I'd leave out.
Nuts.
That said, Weber going 0-2 to finish the year is likely not going to happen, so EWU's conference champion-ship has sailed, at this point.
BozAngelesGriz said:Depends on the nature of our losses if we do 0-2 to close the season. Losing bad to Weber at home and dropping the cat game by more than a score or two would likely put us out. Ten years ago that wouldn’t be the case
George Ferguson said:BozAngelesGriz said:Depends on the nature of our losses if we do 0-2 to close the season. Losing bad to Weber at home and dropping the cat game by more than a score or two would likely put us out. Ten years ago that wouldn’t be the case
No. The Griz are a lock, no matter what happens. Do I want them to prove it? No. But they're a lock and a max bid will be submitted for the first round should they not get a seed.