Big Sky End Game

[HelenaHandBasket]

The end-game in the BSC shapes up to be very interesting. There's only a (far) outside chance for the Griz to be in the mix for a co-championship. And, looking at the numbers, Weber would seem to have the inside track. Here’s how it plays out:

Team .. BSC Record .. Overall .. Opp1 . . Opp2 .. Opponents’ W-L
SUU . . .. . 5-1 . . . . . . 7-2 . . . UC-D . . . NAU . . . 10-9
WSU . . . . 5-1 . . . . . . 7-2 . . . . PSU . .. . ISU . .. . . 4-15
NAU . . . . 5-1 . . . . . . 6-3 . .. . MSU . . . SUU . . . . 11-7
EWU . . . . 4-2 . . . . . . 5-4 . .. . UND . . . PSU . . . . 3-16
UM . . . . . 4-2 . . . . . . 6-3 . .. . UNC .. . MSU . . . . 6-11
Sac . .. . . 4-2 . . . . . . 5-4 . . . . CP . .. . UC-D . . . 6-12
MSU . . . . 4-2 . . . . . . 4-5 . . . NAU . . . UM . . . . 12-6

When the Griz win out (necessary, IMO, for a playoff bid), MSU will have at least 3 conferences losses (and probably 4 given their slim chances at NAU). But Sac-State and EWU are also likely to win out and end at 6-2. Either SUU or NAU must end up with 2 losses, since they play each other. Likely best scenario for the Griz is for UC-Davis to pull off a home upset against SUU (more likely than MSU winning on the road at NAU), and then for SUU to knock off NAU. But how likely is it that PSU (0-9) can upset WSU, even at home? Then Weber gets ISU (4-6) at home. Hmmm ...

Of course, "on any given Saturday" and there's still a lot of football to be played. Should be fun.

Looks like Weber's to lose.

SUU can beat Fisty.

If NAU and SUU win this week, best Weber can hope for is being co-champion if they win out.

 

[kemajic]

The end-game in the BSC shapes up to be very interesting. There's only a (far) outside chance for the Griz to be in the mix for a co-championship. And, looking at the numbers, Weber would seem to have the inside track. Here’s how it plays out:

Team .. BSC Record .. Overall .. Opp1 . . Opp2 .. Opponents’ W-L
SUU . . .. . 5-1 . . . . . . 7-2 . . . UC-D . . . NAU . . . 10-9
WSU . . . . 5-1 . . . . . . 7-2 . . . . PSU . .. . ISU . .. . . 4-15
NAU . . . . 5-1 . . . . . . 6-3 . .. . MSU . . . SUU . . . . 11-7
EWU . . . . 4-2 . . . . . . 5-4 . .. . UND . . . PSU . . . . 3-16
UM . . . . . 4-2 . . . . . . 6-3 . .. . UNC .. . MSU . . . . 6-11
Sac . .. . . 4-2 . . . . . . 5-4 . . . . CP . .. . UC-D . . . 6-12
MSU . . . . 4-2 . . . . . . 4-5 . . . NAU . . . UM . . . . 12-6

When the Griz win out (necessary, IMO, for a playoff bid), MSU will have at least 3 conferences losses (and probably 4 given their slim chances at NAU). But Sac-State and EWU are also likely to win out and end at 6-2. Either SUU or NAU must end up with 2 losses, since they play each other. Likely best scenario for the Griz is for UC-Davis to pull off a home upset against SUU (more likely than MSU winning on the road at NAU), and then for SUU to knock off NAU. But how likely is it that PSU (0-9) can upset WSU, even at home? Then Weber gets ISU (4-6) at home. Hmmm ...

Of course, "on any given Saturday" and there's still a lot of football to be played. Should be fun.

Looks like Weber's to lose.

SUU can beat Fisty.

True. Cookus can rally and beat SUU, too.

 

[IdaGriz01]

...
Looks like Weber's to lose.

SUU can beat Fisty.

True. Cookus can rally and beat SUU, too.

One thing I wish I had done with this first "End Game" thread was to show home and away games. As it happens, NAU will be on the road at SUU, making their job somewhat more difficult. But, whatever his personality problems, Cookus is a damned good QB ... he gets hot and a win is definitely possible.

 

[Kadeezy]

EGriz heads will explode if SUU (9-2) and SAC (7-4) win out and the Hornets make the playoff with 7 D1 wins and are SUU’s only FCS loss (54-27)!

Hornets are a long shot even in that scenario though...

 

[PlayerRep]

There is some nice info and nice analysis in this thread. I learned a lot. Very interesting. Thanks for doing the homework and all the nice posts.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

EGriz heads will explode if SUU (9-2) and SAC (7-4) win out and the Hornets make the playoff with 7 D1 wins and are SUU’s only FCS loss (54-27)!

Hornets are a long shot even in that scenario though...

Yeah, I don't think the odds of a 7 win BSC team getting in are very good.

 

[first11]

EGriz heads will explode if SUU (9-2) and SAC (7-4) win out and the Hornets make the playoff with 7 D1 wins and are SUU’s only FCS loss (54-27)!

Hornets are a long shot even in that scenario though...

Interesting musing, but hard to imagine Sac in, but with the way conferences going the seeding process , home fields awarded and low ender teams chances getting in are all in play.

For us, “just win baby” time! Will see what happens.

 

[Kadeezy]

EGriz heads will explode if SUU (9-2) and SAC (7-4) win out and the Hornets make the playoff with 7 D1 wins and are SUU’s only FCS loss (54-27)!

Hornets are a long shot even in that scenario though...

Interesting musing, but hard to imagine Sac in, but with the way conferences going the seeding process , home fields awarded and low ender teams chances getting in are all in play.

For us, “just win baby” time! Will see what happens.

Yep, who knows what will happen in the BSC, could have a major tie up and sharing of the conference crown. How would the committee hand that?

SAC’s only hope is to win out convincingly, hope SUU does to, and have NAU, EWU, and UM each take one more L.

The new SAC AD will do whatever he can to get a playoff game in that scenario.

 

[cmtgrizzly]

EGriz heads will explode if SUU (9-2) and SAC (7-4) win out and the Hornets make the playoff with 7 D1 wins and are SUU’s only FCS loss (54-27)!

Hornets are a long shot even in that scenario though...

Yeah, I don't think the odds of a 7 win BSC team getting in are very good.

I agree. I think the only team that could possibly make it at 7-4 is EWU. I am thnking our history of high bids will get us in at 8-3. Will UM put in a bid as high as they have in the past? I am not privy to our attendance numbers as I write this but some have noted a decline. If so does that lead to a lower bid from us? How would those of you who are already on the fence about extending Stitt feel about extension if he made it to 8-3 but we didnt get an at large spot? There could be 4 teams at 8-3 or better in our conference.

 

[Stop_HammerTime69]

EGriz heads will explode if SUU (9-2) and SAC (7-4) win out and the Hornets make the playoff with 7 D1 wins and are SUU’s only FCS loss (54-27)!

Hornets are a long shot even in that scenario though...

Yeah, I don't think the odds of a 7 win BSC team getting in are very good.

I agree. I think the only team that could possibly make it at 7-4 is EWU. I am thnking our history of high bids will get us in at 8-3. Will UM put in a bid as high as they have in the past? I am not privy to our attendance numbers as I write this but some have noted a decline. If so does that lead to a lower bid from us? How would those of you who are already on the fence about extending Stitt feel about extension if he made it to 8-3 but we didnt get an at large spot? There could be 4 teams at 8-3 or better in our conference.

As far as your last question, it's a circumstance beyond his control. Our last game would be a win against the scats, which is the one game you have to win. I would be more angry at the NCAA committee than Stitt. That would be one of the biggest screwjobs out there.

 

[cmtgrizzly]

EGriz heads will explode if SUU (9-2) and SAC (7-4) win out and the Hornets make the playoff with 7 D1 wins and are SUU’s only FCS loss (54-27)!

Hornets are a long shot even in that scenario though...

Yeah, I don't think the odds of a 7 win BSC team getting in are very good.

I agree. I think the only team that could possibly make it at 7-4 is EWU. I am thnking our history of high bids will get us in at 8-3. Will UM put in a bid as high as they have in the past? I am not privy to our attendance numbers as I write this but some have noted a decline. If so does that lead to a lower bid from us? How would those of you who are already on the fence about extending Stitt feel about extension if he made it to 8-3 but we didnt get an at large spot? There could be 4 teams at 8-3 or better in our conference.

As far as your last question, it's a circumstance beyond his control. Our last game would be a win against the scats, which is the one game you have to win. I would be more angry at the NCAA committee than Stitt. That would be one of the biggest screwjobs out there.

I agree it shouldnt impact his extension. I think he has earned another year but I thought another year was necessary to really evaluate him anyway.