Big Sky End Game

[HelenaHandBasket]

I heard it was going to be on the road and a MRVC team and W. Ill seems like the logical choice altho could be one of the SD schools. I actually hope so because we need to kick some MRVC ass. I get so tired of hearing how are style of ball can not compete. Be nice to tack about 40 points on them.

Unless a MVC team ponies up a larger bid, not sure I see the Griz traveling to a MVC school in round 1 if they make the playoffs.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

I heard we are going to W. ILL.

Given the regional pairings and the stupidity of the BSC, I'd bet we are playing SUU. The only question would be where. IMO.

Since there are 2 more weeks of football until the bracket is announced, I have no idea if they will play anywhere.

True story. I believe the assumption of the OP of this thread was the Griz winning out.

Even then, there is a lot of football left that will determine the playoff teams, but Griz/SUU would seem like a good bet for a 1st round game.

 

[grzz]

Conference winners will get preference in hosting first round games starting this year.

Two teams from same conference play. If one is conference winner. That team will host if it meets the minimum requirements.

Do you have a link to this?

**Edit to add link to NCAA FCS page. Does not mention this criteria. http://www.ncaa.com/championships/football/fcs/road-to-the-championship

Per: http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2017DIMFBL_PreChampsManual_20170914.pdf
Regarding rst-round, second-round, quarter nal and semi nal sites, in addition to the criteria listed in Bylaw 31.1.3.2.1, the
NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee shall consider the following additional criteria when selecting playoff sites:
1. The committee will consider previous crowd-control measures and crowd behavior of the prospective host institution (regardless of seeding).
2. Prospective host institutions must submit the following minimum nancial guarantees, which shall be 75 percent of the estimated net receipts as submitted on the proposed budget:
First round – $30,000 Second round – $40,000 Quarter nals – $50,000 Semi nals – $60,000
3. If the minimum nancial guarantees are met, the committee will award the playoff sites to the higher seeded teams.
4. When determining host institutions for playoff games when both teams are unseeded, criteria shall apply as follows: (1) quality of facility, (2) revenue potential plus estimated net receipts, (3) attendance history and potential, (4) team’s performance (i.e., conference place nish, head-to-head results and number of Division I opponents), and (5) student- athlete well-being (e.g., travel and missed class time).
5. A conference champion would host a rst-round game against a conference opponent (if applicable). This policy would be contingent upon the conference champion meeting the facility requirements to host and submitting an acceptable bid by the established deadline.
6. If a second-round, quarter nal or semi nal playoff site is not available due to the fact the institutions involved did not submit a proposed budget, the committee will contact the institutions and offer the opportunity to submit a bid at the current round’s minimum nancial guarantee level. If seeded teams are not involved, the committee will determine the host institution by applying the championship site-selection criteria in Bylaw 31.1.3.2.1.

I wonder if the "conference champion" in the committee's eyes would only apply to the team that got the auto-bid, or if it would be any of the teams that tied for the title.

I would be find of surprised, knowing that the committee would know this, if UM would be paired with a Big Sky Conference Champion in the first round because of the gate of a UM home game. I know that isn't supposed to be a factor, and supposedly they determine match-ups before opening bids, but I would be surprised to see it work out that way.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Conference winners will get preference in hosting first round games starting this year.

Two teams from same conference play. If one is conference winner. That team will host if it meets the minimum requirements.

Do you have a link to this?

**Edit to add link to NCAA FCS page. Does not mention this criteria. http://www.ncaa.com/championships/football/fcs/road-to-the-championship

Per: http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2017DIMFBL_PreChampsManual_20170914.pdf
Regarding rst-round, second-round, quarter nal and semi nal sites, in addition to the criteria listed in Bylaw 31.1.3.2.1, the
NCAA Division I Football Championship Committee shall consider the following additional criteria when selecting playoff sites:
1. The committee will consider previous crowd-control measures and crowd behavior of the prospective host institution (regardless of seeding).
2. Prospective host institutions must submit the following minimum nancial guarantees, which shall be 75 percent of the estimated net receipts as submitted on the proposed budget:
First round – $30,000 Second round – $40,000 Quarter nals – $50,000 Semi nals – $60,000
3. If the minimum nancial guarantees are met, the committee will award the playoff sites to the higher seeded teams.
4. When determining host institutions for playoff games when both teams are unseeded, criteria shall apply as follows: (1) quality of facility, (2) revenue potential plus estimated net receipts, (3) attendance history and potential, (4) team’s performance (i.e., conference place nish, head-to-head results and number of Division I opponents), and (5) student- athlete well-being (e.g., travel and missed class time).
5. A conference champion would host a rst-round game against a conference opponent (if applicable). This policy would be contingent upon the conference champion meeting the facility requirements to host and submitting an acceptable bid by the established deadline.
6. If a second-round, quarter nal or semi nal playoff site is not available due to the fact the institutions involved did not submit a proposed budget, the committee will contact the institutions and offer the opportunity to submit a bid at the current round’s minimum nancial guarantee level. If seeded teams are not involved, the committee will determine the host institution by applying the championship site-selection criteria in Bylaw 31.1.3.2.1.

I wonder if the "conference champion" in the committee's eyes would only apply to the team that got the auto-bid, or if it would be any of the teams that tied for the title.

I would be find of surprised, knowing that the committee would know this, if UM would be paired with a Big Sky Conference Champion in the first round because of the gate of a UM home game. I know that isn't supposed to be a factor, and supposedly they determine match-ups before opening bids, but I would be surprised to see it work out that way.

I would assume auto-bid.

 

[uofmman1122]

So I figure I'll put this here, but I did some analysis on the teams that have a legit shot at the playoffs.

I'm assuming going forward that every team that's *supposed* to win does. (Close games go to the home team)

I know this probably won't be how it works out, but it's the "most likely" scenario.

Here are your auto bids:
Big Sky: Southern Utah (9-2)
Big South: Kennesaw St. (10-1)
CAA: JMU (11-0)
MEAC: NCA&T (11-0)
MVFC: NDSU (10-1)
NEC: Duquesne (9-2)
OVC: Jax St. (10-1)
Patriot: Colgate (7-4) (But honestly, who the hell knows...)
Pioneer: San Diego (9-2)
Southern: Wofford (9-2)
Southland: Central Arkansas (10-1)

So now we have 13 spots left. If it plays out this way, these teams are pretty much a lock:

Big Sky:
Weber State (9-2)

CAA:
Elon (9-2)
Stony Brook (9-2)

MVFC:
South Dakota (8-3)
SDSU (8-3)
Western Illinois (8-3)

Southland:
SHSU (10-1)
Nicholls St (9-2)
McNeese St (9-2)

So that leaves only 4 spots for the following teams to fight over:

NAU (7-4)
EWU (7-4)
Montana (8-3)
North Carolina Central (8-3)
Monmouth (9-2)
Delaware (8-3)
UNI (7-4)
Western Carolina (8-4)
Samford (8-3)

It's going to be extremely close, but I like our chances at 8-3 if we win out.

 

[retiredpopo]

we are a lock, don't doubt me. Don't believe me if you don't want to but trust me we have at least 3 games left.

 

[zirge]

Given the remaining Big Sky games, here's my assessment on how the conference race plays out.

Team .. BSC Record .. Overall
SUU . . .. . 7-1 . . . . . . 9-2 . . . beating UC-D and NAU
WSU . . . . 7-1 . . . . . . 9-2 . . . . beating PSU and ISU
NAU . . . . 6-2 . . . . . . 7-4 . .. . beating MSU and losing to SUU
EWU . . . . 6-2 . . . . . . 7-4 . .. . beating UND and PSU
UM . . . . . 6-2 . . . . . . 8-3 . .. . beating UNC and MSU
Sac . .. . . 5-3 . . . . . . 5-4 . . . . beating CP and losing to UC-D
MSU . . . . 4-4 . . . . . . 4-7 . . . losing to NAU and UM

EWU should beat North Dakota next week, even without Gubrud.
Griz beating Northern Colorado and Montana State assumes Jensen plays both games. Without him at QB, these games (especially MSU) become more difficult.

Southern Utah beat Weber State 32-16, so under this scenario they win the conference auto-bid. If this plays out exactly, Southern Utah Weber State and Montana probably each make the playoffs, with Northern Arizona and Eastern Washington squarely on the bubble.

this......the only thing i would change is if EW wins out they get the bid over Montana due to the head to head win and due to strength of schedule losing to an FBS team and a high ranking NDSU team. Then only losing in conference to the 2 BSC teams that have the best chance of getting in.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

So I figure I'll put this here, but I did some analysis on the teams that have a legit shot at the playoffs.

I'm assuming going forward that every team that's *supposed* to win does. (Close games go to the home team)

I know this probably won't be how it works out, but it's the "most likely" scenario.

Here are your auto bids:
Big Sky: Southern Utah (9-2)
Big South: Kennesaw St. (10-1)
CAA: JMU (11-0)
MEAC: NCA&T (11-0)
MVFC: NDSU (10-1)
NEC: Duquesne (9-2)
OVC: Jax St. (10-1)
Patriot: Colgate (7-4) (But honestly, who the hell knows...)
Pioneer: San Diego (9-2)
Southern: Wofford (9-2)
Southland: Central Arkansas (10-1)

So now we have 13 spots left. If it plays out this way, these teams are pretty much a lock:

Big Sky:
Weber State (9-2)

CAA:
Elon (9-2)
Stony Brook (9-2)

MVFC:
South Dakota (8-3)
SDSU (8-3)
Western Illinois (8-3)

Southland:
SHSU (10-1)
Nicholls St (9-2)
McNeese St (9-2)

So that leaves only 4 spots for the following teams to fight over:

NAU (7-4)
EWU (7-4)
Montana (8-3)
North Carolina Central (8-3)
Monmouth (9-2)
Delaware (8-3)
UNI (7-4)
Western Carolina (8-4)
Samford (8-3)

It's going to be extremely close, but I like our chances at 8-3 if we win out.

There are only 10 auto-bid leagues.

 

[uofmman1122]

There are only 10 auto-bid leagues.

Ahh, that's my bad. Wikipedia says there are 11, but sure enough there are only 10 listed in the brackets from last year. I thought the MEAC got an auto bid.

Well then move NCA&T down and add one more, even though if they win out, nothing really changes about the last 4 spots and the teams that might fill them. An 11-0 NCA&T isn't gonna be left out.

 

[grizband]

There are only 10 auto-bid leagues.

Ahh, that's my bad. Wikipedia says there are 11, but sure enough there are only 10 listed in the brackets from last year. I thought the MEAC got an auto bid.

Well then move NCA&T down and add one more, even though if they win out, nothing really changes about the last 4 spots and the teams that might fill them. An 11-0 NCA&T isn't gonna be left out.

MEAC was an autobid league, until last year at the creation of the Celebration Bowl. An 11-0 NCA&T squad wouldn't be eligible for the playoffs, as they are contractually obligated to play in the Celebration Bowl (SWAC vs MEAC).

 

[IdaGriz01]

There are only 10 auto-bid leagues.

Ahh, that's my bad. Wikipedia says there are 11, but sure enough there are only 10 listed in the brackets from last year. I thought the MEAC got an auto bid.

Well then move NCA&T down and add one more, even though if they win out, nothing really changes about the last 4 spots and the teams that might fill them. An 11-0 NCA&T isn't gonna be left out.

Yes, they will, unless they screw up again in their last game at NC Central (which did happen last year on the road). But they're at home for that game, and they'll be wanting to avenge that defeat. So they should win out ... and represent the MEAC in the Celebration Bowl against the SWAC. NC Central stands no chance at an at-large bid.

 

[uofmman1122]

Oh god, that's right. Well, then 5 spots left. Makes me feel even better.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Oh god, that's right. Well, then 5 spots left. Makes me feel even better.

The "form holds" scenario (favorites and close home games) is always a good one to look at this time of year. With your guesses (okay, "projections" or "predictions" sound better), having the Griz among nine teams fighting for five spots looks reasonable ... or even pretty good.

Personally, I think the odds look even better -- but all based on the Griz winning out. Sadly, I do not see the Griz in at 7-4 ... and your numbers show why.

Here's some quibbles: (1) UNI at 7-4 adds to the "locks" from the MVFC (spots back down to four, but list down to eight). (2) NC Central stands no chance, even at 8-3, IMO. (3) And even at 9-2, I do not see Monmouth with a chance (the Big South just isn't that strong, to count on two bids). However, IF Monmouth pulls off an upset at Kennesaw State in the final game of the season -- now that would be a bubble-breaker, since Kennesaw State might still get an at large bid.

With the Griz at 8-3 and NAU and EWU at 7-4, I think they win that trade-off (yes, I know UM lost to EWU, but it is what it is). So that leaves UM, Delaware, Samford and W Carolina to fill the final four at-large spots. (In case you're wondering why W Carolina will have 12 games, they opened the season at Hawaii ... losing 41-18. Tough duty. :lol: ).

 

[uofmman1122]

Some posters on other sites prognosticating that 7-4 UNH might still be considered. I really disagree, however, but I guess it would be fair to add them in, as well.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Some posters on other sites prognosticating that 7-4 UNH might still be considered. I really disagree, however, but I guess it would be fair to add them in, as well.

"Considered," yes. Decent chance ... I don't think so, when you look at their record (which, in the end, the committee will do). When you do that, you really cannot, IMHO, escape one glaring fact: UNH is 5-0 at home and 1-3 on the road. Now ... if they do beat Elon at home,then things get crazy. That would put them at 7-3, with a huge win. If they go on to win at Albany, then they would be 8-3 ... and a lock for a bid. But if they lost at Albany, their record would stand at 6-0 at home and 1-4 on the road. When that's lined up with other 7-4 records, it would send a very bad message.

 

[uofmman1122]

Some posters on other sites prognosticating that 7-4 UNH might still be considered. I really disagree, however, but I guess it would be fair to add them in, as well.

"Considered," yes. Decent chance ... I don't think so, when you look at their record (which, in the end, the committee will do). When you do that, you really cannot, IMHO, escape one glaring fact: UNH is 5-0 at home and 1-3 on the road. Now ... if they do beat Elon at home,then things get crazy. That would put them at 7-3, with a huge win. If they go on to win at Albany, then they would be 8-3 ... and a lock for a bid. But if they lost at Albany, their record would stand at 6-0 at home and 1-4 on the road. When that's lined up with other 7-4 records, it would send a very bad message.

Even if they lose to Elon and beat Albany, their best win is 4-4 Maine, who still has to play Stony Brrok and UMASS.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Some posters on other sites prognosticating that 7-4 UNH might still be considered. I really disagree, however, but I guess it would be fair to add them in, as well.

"Considered," yes. Decent chance ... I don't think so, when you look at their record (which, in the end, the committee will do). When you do that, you really cannot, IMHO, escape one glaring fact: UNH is 5-0 at home and 1-3 on the road. Now ... if they do beat Elon at home,then things get crazy. That would put them at 7-3, with a huge win. If they go on to win at Albany, then they would be 8-3 ... and a lock for a bid. But if they lost at Albany, their record would stand at 6-0 at home and 1-4 on the road. When that's lined up with other 7-4 records, it would send a very bad message.

Even if they lose to Elon and beat Albany, their best win is 4-4 Maine, who still has to play Stony Brrok and UMASS.

Yep. Not a strong 7-4 position.

 

[kemajic]

The end-game in the BSC shapes up to be very interesting. There's only a (far) outside chance for the Griz to be in the mix for a co-championship. And, looking at the numbers, Weber would seem to have the inside track. Here’s how it plays out:

Team .. BSC Record .. Overall .. Opp1 . . Opp2 .. Opponents’ W-L
SUU . . .. . 5-1 . . . . . . 7-2 . . . UC-D . . . NAU . . . 10-9
WSU . . . . 5-1 . . . . . . 7-2 . . . . PSU . .. . ISU . .. . . 4-15
NAU . . . . 5-1 . . . . . . 6-3 . .. . MSU . . . SUU . . . . 11-7
EWU . . . . 4-2 . . . . . . 5-4 . .. . UND . . . PSU . . . . 3-16
UM . . . . . 4-2 . . . . . . 6-3 . .. . UNC .. . MSU . . . . 6-11
Sac . .. . . 4-2 . . . . . . 5-4 . . . . CP . .. . UC-D . . . 6-12
MSU . . . . 4-2 . . . . . . 4-5 . . . NAU . . . UM . . . . 12-6

When the Griz win out (necessary, IMO, for a playoff bid), MSU will have at least 3 conferences losses (and probably 4 given their slim chances at NAU). But Sac-State and EWU are also likely to win out and end at 6-2. Either SUU or NAU must end up with 2 losses, since they play each other. Likely best scenario for the Griz is for UC-Davis to pull off a home upset against SUU (more likely than MSU winning on the road at NAU), and then for SUU to knock off NAU. But how likely is it that PSU (0-9) can upset WSU, even at home? Then Weber gets ISU (4-6) at home. Hmmm ...

Of course, "on any given Saturday" and there's still a lot of football to be played. Should be fun.

Looks like Weber's to lose.

 

[bgbigdog]

The end-game in the BSC shapes up to be very interesting. There's only a (far) outside chance for the Griz to be in the mix for a co-championship. And, looking at the numbers, Weber would seem to have the inside track. Here’s how it plays out:

Team .. BSC Record .. Overall .. Opp1 . . Opp2 .. Opponents’ W-L
SUU . . .. . 5-1 . . . . . . 7-2 . . . UC-D . . . NAU . . . 10-9
WSU . . . . 5-1 . . . . . . 7-2 . . . . PSU . .. . ISU . .. . . 4-15
NAU . . . . 5-1 . . . . . . 6-3 . .. . MSU . . . SUU . . . . 11-7
EWU . . . . 4-2 . . . . . . 5-4 . .. . UND . . . PSU . . . . 3-16
UM . . . . . 4-2 . . . . . . 6-3 . .. . UNC .. . MSU . . . . 6-11
Sac . .. . . 4-2 . . . . . . 5-4 . . . . CP . .. . UC-D . . . 6-12
MSU . . . . 4-2 . . . . . . 4-5 . . . NAU . . . UM . . . . 12-6

When the Griz win out (necessary, IMO, for a playoff bid), MSU will have at least 3 conferences losses (and probably 4 given their slim chances at NAU). But Sac-State and EWU are also likely to win out and end at 6-2. Either SUU or NAU must end up with 2 losses, since they play each other. Likely best scenario for the Griz is for UC-Davis to pull off a home upset against SUU (more likely than MSU winning on the road at NAU), and then for SUU to knock off NAU. But how likely is it that PSU (0-9) can upset WSU, even at home? Then Weber gets ISU (4-6) at home. Hmmm ...

Of course, "on any given Saturday" and there's still a lot of football to be played. Should be fun.

Looks like Weber's to lose.

SUU can beat Fisty.

 

[WILDCATFAN]

There are only 10 auto-bid leagues.

Ahh, that's my bad. Wikipedia says there are 11, but sure enough there are only 10 listed in the brackets from last year. I thought the MEAC got an auto bid.

Well then move NCA&T down and add one more, even though if they win out, nothing really changes about the last 4 spots and the teams that might fill them. An 11-0 NCA&T isn't gonna be left out.

Yes, they will, unless they screw up again in their last game at NC Central (which did happen last year on the road). But they're at home for that game, and they'll be wanting to avenge that defeat. So they should win out ... and represent the MEAC in the Celebration Bowl against the SWAC. NC Central stands no chance at an at-large bid.

Doesn't the MEAC champion have the choice for the Celebration Bowl or the playoffs? I thought I read somewhere that the MEAC champ could instead choose to play in the playoffs as an at-large and the 2nd place MEAC team would take their place in the Bowl game?