Hey y'all, here is my weekly write up in all its grandeur.
What did we learn from Week #6:
---Here are the tiers:
The conference's abysmal ranking (low 20's), is helped by the chunk of teams who consistently have quad four losses and quad 4 wins. There are 7 teams in the conference with with 7 or more losses in conference and 8 with 10 losses over all on the season. Only four teams seem to have a reasonable shot at a winning record and likely only two get 20 wins on the season overall. Montana got two home wins and moved up 10 positions on the week. Northern Colorado has a quad 3 three loss on the road and dropped just 1 spot from last week. Montana supplanted NC in the Lunardi bracket and finds itself slotted in as a 15 where NC had been a solid 14 for a few weeks with its lower 100's net ranking.
Looking forward to Week #7:
-- The massive icesheet of mediocrity lost one member, Portland State last week after a 2-0 week. The rest of the mass went not shockingly 4-4 on the week and we learned very little. Since Portland State is on the road this week (at ISU/WSU) it is not out of the realm of possibility they are ruinted with the berg by Saturday.
-- Conference Player of the Status: If I were to have my vote today, my list would include these players and in this likely order:
Thursday Game: Portland State @ Idaho State: This should be dubbed the two spider-men pointing at each other game. Both teams would be conference title contenders if they could figure out how to play on the road and be more efficient in scoring the basketball. Both have been elite at home, and logic dictates to us that this is a game that Idaho State should win inside the friendly confines of ICCU arena. Portland State may very well be one of the best teams in the conference because of how well they play defense, and they'll be an interesting test for Looney's Darling Plan. Darling as noted had a bajillion scoring touches against Montana, and Portland State was the last time that DD had less than 15 shots in a game and the last time he scored under 20. I'd expect him to cook at home, but the question is to how efficient he can be.
Saturday Game: Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona: Both teams probably had designs on being in different places at this point of the season. Eastern has won 4 in a row, and NAU continues in their steadfast desire to lose tight and close games. Eastern probably doesn't win at Northern Colorado on Thursday, but after their 3-7 start, the fact they are in a position to play into a day 1 and 2 bye is a testament to Monson getting them all onto the same page. If they have such a design, they likely have to win in Flagstaff on Saturday to have a real shot of avoiding a) day 1 game and b) a matchup against PSU in round 3. Northern Arizona is likely a top 4 team but doesn't have the results to prove it. Their schedule puts them into a position where they could win 3 of their last 4 and like EWU could put themselves into a scenario where they could finish as high as the #4 seed. Honorable Mention: Montana at Montana State. Montana should be the favorite, but its a rivalry game that generally creates some incredibly uneven and over emotional play and that benefits teams who can play defense. Montana State is as good as there is at team defense, and they will absolutely cause problems for the Griz. Montana has a gauntlet of road games to win and this in some ways might be the most difficult of three for them to navigate.
Thanks for reading.
| Rank | Team | Conference/NET | Last Week | Last Two Weeks: | Best Case/Worst Case |
1 | Montana | 12-2/19-8 NET: 162 (+11) | Rank: #1 2-0: W: v. #5 Idaho State W: v. #9 Weber State | 2/22 (S): @ 4Montana State 2/27 (T): @ #10 Sacramento State 3/1 (S): @ #3 Portland State 3/3 (M): v. #6 Eastern Washington | Montana has 3 very difficult road games left, all in a row. PSU is probably a coin flip game, and Montana will be favored in the other two (SS/MSU). All places they've struggled in recent years. Last game is against a much improved EWU team. Ideal: Goes 4-0. Wins conference title. More likely: 3-1 and shares. Least likely: Goes 2-2 and finishes 2nd. |
2 | Northern Colorado | 11-3/19-8 NET: 139 (+1) | Rank: #2 1-1: Win: v. #10 Sacramento State Loss: @ #3 Portland State | 2/20 (T): v. #6 Eastern Washington 2/22 (S): v. #7 Idaho 3/1 (S): @ # 8Northern Arizona 3/3 (M): @ #10 Weber State | Hard not to see NC going 4-0 over its last 4 games. All teams ranked in the bottom half, and its most difficult road game is after 6 break (@ NAU). For NC to win the title they have to go undefeated and hope Montana drops a game. If they drop two, it is all over. Best Case: Goes 4-0 wins conference title. Worst Case: Goes 4-0 and finishes second. |
3 | Portland State | 8-5/16-10 NET: 196 (+21) | Rank: #4 2-0: Win: v. #8 Northern Arizona Win: v. #2 Northern Colorado | 2/20 (T): @ #5 Idaho State 2/22 (S): @ #9 Weber State 2/27 (T): v. #4 Montana State 3/1 (S): v. #1 Montana 3/3 (M): v. #10 Sacramento State | Portland State has 5 losses in conference on the road. Zero at home. They have 3 games against the top 5, two at home. Ideal: 5-0 over their last 5 and finish 2nd ahead of NC. Most likely: 3-2 over the last 5 and finish 3rd. Least Likely: Losing record, drop at least 1 at home, and finish 4th/5th. |
4 | Montana State | 7-7/12-15 NET: 187 (+11) | Rank: #7 2-0: Win v. #9 Weber State Win v. #5 Idaho State | 2/22 (S): v. #1 Montana 2/27 (T): @ #2 Portland State 3/1 (S): @ #10Sacramento State 3/3 (M): v. #8 Idaho | Logie has the Cats playing with house money again. They have an outside chance at 3rd, and can play a spoiler role for both Montana and Portland State. Ideal: Beats the Griz, goes 4-0 and finishes 3rd. Best Case: 2-2 finishes 4-5th Worse Case: |
5 | Idaho State | 6-7/11-13 NET: 210 (-18) | Rank #3: 0-2 Loss @. #1 Montana Loss @. #4 Montana State | 2/20 (T): v. #3 Portland State 2/22 (S): v. #10 Sacramento State 2/27 (T): @ #7 Idaho 3/1 (S): @ #6 Eastern Washington 3/3 (M): v. #8 Northern Arizona | ISU like PSU would be challenging Montana/NC for the conference title if they could figure out their road woes. They have 3 of their last 5 at home, and get PSU at home and not in Portland. Ideal: 5-0 and finishes 3rd. Most Likely: 4-1 and finishes 4th. Worst Case: 2-3 and slide into a day 1 matchup of conference tournament. |
6 | Eastern Washington | 6-7/10-16 NET: 250 (-2) | LW: #8 1-0: Win v. #7 Idaho | 2/20 (T): @ #2 Northern Colorado 2/22 (S): @ #8 Northern Arizona 2/27 (T): v. #9 Weber State 3/1 (S): v. #5 Idaho State 3/3 (M): @ # 1 Montana | Eastern Washington is on a roll. They've won 4 in a row, but the end of the season is a tough road to navigate. They have #1 and #2 on the road to bookend their last 5 games. Their defensive mindset could put them into a role of a spoiler for UM/NC. Ideal: 4-1 and get them selves a day 1 bye. Most Likely: 3-2 and get themselves a day 1 bye. Worst Case: 3-2 and get stuck in playing day 1. |
7 | Idaho | 6-7/11-15 NET: 260 (+2) | LW: #5 0-1 Loss @ #6 Eastern Washington | 2/20 (T): @ #8 Northern Arizona 2/22 (S): @ #2 Northern Colorado 2/27 (T): v. #5 Idaho State 3/1 (S): v. #9 Weber State 3/3 (M): @ #4 Montana State | Idaho: could finish anywhere between 3rd and 9th and it feels like any of those scenarios are possible. They are on some sort of crazy/hot paradigm, where they can put together absolutely exquisite 20 minutes stretches followed by attrocious ones. Their schedule is daunting, 3 games @ places hard to win, and a home rivalry game (ISU). Ideal: All hot 5-0 and finish w/ 4th. Most Likely: Equal blend of hot/crazy 3-2 and finish 5th. Worst Case: All crazy, and play themselves into a day 1 tournament game. |
8 | Northern Arizona | 6-8/15-12 NET: 253 (-6) | LW: #6 1-1 Win v. #10 Sacramento State Loss v. #3 Portland State | 2/20 (T): v. #7 Idaho 2/22 (S): v. #6 Eastern Washington 3/1 (S): v. #2 Northern Colorado 3/3 (M): @ #5 Idaho State | Still convinced that NAU is the third best team in the conference and a team to be avoided in Boise. They have 3 of 4 at home, all winnable, and against teams near or above them in the standings. If there is a big mover, its NAU. Ideal: Finish 4-0 and into a quarterfinal matchup. Most Likely: Win the easy ones, lose the tough ones close and close 2-2 record and get stuck w/ round 1 game. Worst Case: Go 3-1 and still end up with a day 1 game. |
9 | Weber State | 3-10/9-18 NET: 306 (-5) | LW:#9 0-2 Loss @ #4 Montana State Loss @ #1 Montana | 2/20 (T): v. #10 Sacramento State 2/22(S): v. #3 Portland State 2/27 (T): @ #6 Eastern Washington 3/1 (S): @ #7 Idaho 3/3 (M): v. #2 Northern Colorado | Two years ago, you might look at this schedule and assume WSU finishes 4-1. Injuries and inconsistency have hurt this team, but they've handed the keys to Threatt and they seem better for it. They are solidly in a spoiler role (getting NC/PSU at home), and have the talent to beat anyone. Ideal: 4-1 and somehow scratches out a day 1 bye. Most Likely: 2-3 finish and finishes in a distant 9th. Worst case: 0-5 and finishes in dead last. |
10 | Sacramento State | 2-11/6-20 NET: 346 (-4) | LW: #10 0-2: Loss v. #8 Northern Arizona Loss v. #2 Northern Colorado | 2/20 (T): @ #9 Weber State 2/22 (S): @ #5 Idaho State 2/27 (T): v. #1 Montana 3/1 (S): v. #4 Montana State 3/3 (M): @ #3 Portland State | Sacramento sticking to their script. Competing hard. They have arguably the hardest schedule remaining (play 4 of top 5), and a relative certainty they are playing day 1 of the tournament. Hard not to envision them just play out the string. Ideal: Develop momentum for BSC tournament, while causing problems for Montana or Portland State. Most Likely: Find a way to scrape out a win, against Weber and finish 9th in conference. Worst Case: They've been living it. Another injury to someone like Holt, and are forcred to use the student assistant as a warm body at the end of the bench. |
What did we learn from Week #6:
---Here are the tiers:
- Tier 1: Northern Colorado, Montana
- Tier 2: Portland State,
- Tier 3: Idaho, Montana State, Idaho State and Eastern Washington
- Tier 4: Sacramento State and Weber State
The conference's abysmal ranking (low 20's), is helped by the chunk of teams who consistently have quad four losses and quad 4 wins. There are 7 teams in the conference with with 7 or more losses in conference and 8 with 10 losses over all on the season. Only four teams seem to have a reasonable shot at a winning record and likely only two get 20 wins on the season overall. Montana got two home wins and moved up 10 positions on the week. Northern Colorado has a quad 3 three loss on the road and dropped just 1 spot from last week. Montana supplanted NC in the Lunardi bracket and finds itself slotted in as a 15 where NC had been a solid 14 for a few weeks with its lower 100's net ranking.
Looking forward to Week #7:
-- The massive icesheet of mediocrity lost one member, Portland State last week after a 2-0 week. The rest of the mass went not shockingly 4-4 on the week and we learned very little. Since Portland State is on the road this week (at ISU/WSU) it is not out of the realm of possibility they are ruinted with the berg by Saturday.
-- Conference Player of the Status: If I were to have my vote today, my list would include these players and in this likely order:
- Dylan Darling: Idaho State. No player has the usage rate that he has on offense. He kept ISU in touch in Missoula as he got the ball in close to 20 possessions in a row in the second half. There likely won't be a player in the conference that has the chance to achieve his offensive numbers for the remainder of the year. Unless he runs out of gas, or gets injured, he likely has the inside track.
- Isaiah Hawthorne: Northern Colorado. He's averaging 19 and 7, and aside from one game (had 1 point in 13 minutes of game play), he has been the model of consistency in the Big Sky Conference season.
- Malik Moore: Montana. Malik Moore is going to be an all-conference 1st team player on a team that is as balanced and distributes scoring across a wider breadth of personnel than just about any team. His overall stats don't compare to Darlin, Hawthorne, or McAllister, but he contributes in a lot of different ways and is relatively consistent. He'll get consideration if Montana wins the conference but likely doesn't have the resume to beat the two guys in front of him.
- Trent McLaughlin: Northern Arizona. If Dylan Darlin didn't exist, McLaughlin would likely receive heavy consideration. The problem is that Northern Arizona has struggled in conference play, and despite his offensive exploits it hasn't led to the type of results that would put him into real consideration
Thursday Game: Portland State @ Idaho State: This should be dubbed the two spider-men pointing at each other game. Both teams would be conference title contenders if they could figure out how to play on the road and be more efficient in scoring the basketball. Both have been elite at home, and logic dictates to us that this is a game that Idaho State should win inside the friendly confines of ICCU arena. Portland State may very well be one of the best teams in the conference because of how well they play defense, and they'll be an interesting test for Looney's Darling Plan. Darling as noted had a bajillion scoring touches against Montana, and Portland State was the last time that DD had less than 15 shots in a game and the last time he scored under 20. I'd expect him to cook at home, but the question is to how efficient he can be.
Saturday Game: Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona: Both teams probably had designs on being in different places at this point of the season. Eastern has won 4 in a row, and NAU continues in their steadfast desire to lose tight and close games. Eastern probably doesn't win at Northern Colorado on Thursday, but after their 3-7 start, the fact they are in a position to play into a day 1 and 2 bye is a testament to Monson getting them all onto the same page. If they have such a design, they likely have to win in Flagstaff on Saturday to have a real shot of avoiding a) day 1 game and b) a matchup against PSU in round 3. Northern Arizona is likely a top 4 team but doesn't have the results to prove it. Their schedule puts them into a position where they could win 3 of their last 4 and like EWU could put themselves into a scenario where they could finish as high as the #4 seed. Honorable Mention: Montana at Montana State. Montana should be the favorite, but its a rivalry game that generally creates some incredibly uneven and over emotional play and that benefits teams who can play defense. Montana State is as good as there is at team defense, and they will absolutely cause problems for the Griz. Montana has a gauntlet of road games to win and this in some ways might be the most difficult of three for them to navigate.
Thanks for reading.
