Hey here is some bathroom reading for you. Too bad you can't use it for toilet paper.
What did we learn from Week #4:
---Here are the tiers:
Much like Earth, the Big Sky conference is now very girthy in the middle. essentially one game separates 3rd from 7th. Idaho State had an opportunity to put itself on the fringes of the 1st tier but faded in the second half at home against NC after sporting a 6 point half time lead. They would have if won sported wins at home against both UM/NC, but instead finds itself just above the mediocre morass in the middle of the conference at mid-point.
-- When you look at the second half schedule, it is hard not to think that NC has the inside track to win the regular season title. They get Montana at home at the end of a 3 in 6, but after that they have a schedule that may very much work in their favor. Hard to see NC finishing the second half w/ a record worse than 6-2. Montana has a bear of second half schedule that includes games @ NC, @PSU, @ NAU and @MSU. That does't bode well for a clean record, particularly when they haven't in any combination swept either the PSU/SS road trip or the NC/NAU one in any of the last three years. Because of the loss to NC early on at home, that makes the Thursday matchup against NC a must win and most likely a road sweep to give them any amount of breathing room over the last 6 games. Portland State clearly has the best chance at making a statement as they play 5 conference games at home in the second half, including games against NC and Montana. Not out of the realm of possibility that PSU could finish the second half 7-2 with its record and clearly separate itself from the middle of the pack and snag itself a #2 seed. Hard to see anyone else having a shot at a #1 or #2 seed.
-- If we look at the first half, it does allow some reflection on some essential questions that people are tasked to answer at the end of the season, namely who is leading the pack for some key awards? I am not the definitive expert here and there is more than likely a lot more to add to each list.
Games of the Week #5:
Thursday Game: Montana @ Northern Colorado: Tier 1 Heavyweight matchup. Montana most likely needs to win this as if they lose they'll be 2 games behind in the loss column to NC and would have lost the season series to NC. So that would turn that two games into essentially a three game deficit that wouldn't likely to be overcome w/ just 7 games remaining. If NC wins, they'd have a commanding lead in the conference and would likely write them is as the #1 seed in the conference (Using pen). Honorable Mention: Portland State at Idaho. Idaho is good at home, Portland State on the road...after last week is well mediocre. This is in part why no team has been able to separate its self from that middle pack. Portland State probably needs to go 2-0 this weekend to stay in contact w/ UM for the second seed. They get both UM/NC at home in the second half. They can absolutely be the disruptor, the thrower of the wrench, and the longer they stay in it the more likely they cause Montana or NC significant problems.
Saturday Game: Idaho State @ Weber State: Just a few weeks ago, Weber State ran the Bengals out of Pocatello. If Idaho State wants to assert itself as a candidate for a top 2 seed in the BSC tournament they have to win this game. Montana is facing its toughest road trip all year (@NC/@NAU) and like Portland State, needs to find its footing to separate themselves from that morass in the middle of the pack. Honorable Mention: Montana State at Northern Colorado. MSU had an enormous lead in Bozeman and coughed it up. MSU defends well and has the personnel to cause NC problems and might have the type of juice to win in Greely.
Thanks for reading.
| Rank | Team | Conference/NET | Last Week | This Week | Conference H/R Record, Second Half Schedule (B T1, I T2, R T3) | |
1 | Northern Colorado | 9-1/124 (+12) | Rank: #1 2-0: W: v. NAU W: @ ISU | TH: v. Montana S: v. Montana State | H:5-0, R: 4-1 4H (UM, MSU, EWU, UI) 4R (SS, PSU, NAU, WSU) | |
2 | Montana | 8-2/190 (+21) | Rank: #2 2-0: Win: v. Portland State Win: v. Sacramento State | TH: @ Northern Colorado S: @ NAU | H:4-1, R:4-1 3H: (ISU, WSU, EWU) 5R: (UNC, NAU, MSU, SS, PSU) | |
3 | Idaho State | 5-5/196 (+4) (192) PSU | Rank: #6 2-1: W: v. Eastern Washington W: v. Idaho L: v. UNC | S: @Weber State | H:4-2 R:1-3 3H: (PSU, SS, NAU) 5R: (WSU, UM, MSU, UI, EWU) | |
4 | Idaho | 5-5/247 (-3) | Rank: #5 1-1: W: @ Weber State L: @ Idaho State | TH: v. Portland State S: v. Sacramento State | H: 3-2 R: 2-3 4H: (PSU, SS,ISU, WSU) 4R: (EWU, NAU, UNC, MSU) | |
5 | Portland State | 5-4/210 (-18) 240 | Rank #3 0-2: L: @ Montana L: @ Montana State | TH: @ Idaho S: @ Eastern Washington | H:4-0 R:1-4 5H: (NAU, UNC, MSU, UM, SS) 4R: (UI, EWU, ISU, WSU) #3 seed | |
6 | Montana State | 5-5/191 (0) 200 | LW: #7 2-0: W: v. Sacramento State W: v. Portland State | TH: @ Northern Arizona S: @ Northern Colorado | H:4-1 R: 1-4 4H: (WSU,ISU, UM, UI) 4R: (NAU,UNC, PSU, SS) | |
7 | Northern Arizona | 4-6/246 (-6) | LW: #4 0-2 L: @ UNC L: @ Weber State | TH: v. Montana State S: v. Montana | H: 2-2 R:2-4 5H: (MSU, UM, UI,EWU, NC) 3R: (PSU,SS, ISU) | |
8 | Eastern Washington | 3-7/250 (+14) | LW: #7 1-1 L: @ Idaho State W: @ Weber State | TH: v. Sacramento State S: v. Portland State | H:1-3 R:2-4 5H: (SS, PSU, UI, WSU, ISU) 3R: (UNC, NAU, UM) | |
9 | Weber State | 3-7/300 (-36) | LW:#10 1-2 L: v. Idaho L: v. Eastern Washington W: Northern Arizona | S: v. Idaho State | H:1-4 R: 2-3 4H: (ISU,SS,PSU,UNC) 4R: (MSU, UM,EWU, UI) | |
10 | Sacramento State | 2-7/346 (-10) | LW: #9 0-2: L: @ Montana State L: @ Montana | TH: @ Eastern Washington S: @ Idaho |
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What did we learn from Week #4:
---Here are the tiers:
- Tier 1: Northern Colorado, Montana
- Tier 2: Idaho, Northern Arizona, Portland State, Montana State and Idaho State
- Tier 3: Sacramento State, Weber State and Eastern Washington
Much like Earth, the Big Sky conference is now very girthy in the middle. essentially one game separates 3rd from 7th. Idaho State had an opportunity to put itself on the fringes of the 1st tier but faded in the second half at home against NC after sporting a 6 point half time lead. They would have if won sported wins at home against both UM/NC, but instead finds itself just above the mediocre morass in the middle of the conference at mid-point.
-- When you look at the second half schedule, it is hard not to think that NC has the inside track to win the regular season title. They get Montana at home at the end of a 3 in 6, but after that they have a schedule that may very much work in their favor. Hard to see NC finishing the second half w/ a record worse than 6-2. Montana has a bear of second half schedule that includes games @ NC, @PSU, @ NAU and @MSU. That does't bode well for a clean record, particularly when they haven't in any combination swept either the PSU/SS road trip or the NC/NAU one in any of the last three years. Because of the loss to NC early on at home, that makes the Thursday matchup against NC a must win and most likely a road sweep to give them any amount of breathing room over the last 6 games. Portland State clearly has the best chance at making a statement as they play 5 conference games at home in the second half, including games against NC and Montana. Not out of the realm of possibility that PSU could finish the second half 7-2 with its record and clearly separate itself from the middle of the pack and snag itself a #2 seed. Hard to see anyone else having a shot at a #1 or #2 seed.
-- If we look at the first half, it does allow some reflection on some essential questions that people are tasked to answer at the end of the season, namely who is leading the pack for some key awards? I am not the definitive expert here and there is more than likely a lot more to add to each list.
- CPOY: There is more, but these seem likely candidates. I'm not sure there is a Montana guy that is going to get a lot of consideration beyond Malik Moore and Joe Pridgen.
- 1. Langston Reynolds (Northern Colorado): 5th in scoring, 6th in rebounding, 7th in assists, tops in FG%. Best player on the best team in the conference through the first half.
- 2. Trent McLaughlin (Northern Arizona): 1st in scoring, 5th in steals, leader in 3's. Probably the most identifiable player in the conference, volume scorer and is going to be given opportunities every night to lead NAU.
- 3. Isaiah Hawthorne: (Northern Colorado): 3rd in the conference in scoring, 10th in RB's. shooting nearly 50% from 3. Does a lot of small things and also a candidate for Conference Newcomer.
- 4. Dylan Darling (Idaho State): Simply he's been on a scorcher (particularly at home) since the conference season began. Will be along with Hawthorne a candidate for Conference Newcomer of the year.
- DPOY: My hunch right now this choice is a bit of a crap shoot. Montana doesn't have a clear candidate here, but I suspect Brandon Whitney because of past performance will get some consideration.
- 1. Terry Miller Jr. and Tre-Vaughn Minott from Portland State. Analytic stats support their candidacy. Both are very effective defenders on a team that defends well. Miller is among the league leaders in effective defensive percentage, steals, and win shares.
- 2. Carson Towt. Northern Arizona. He's a rebounding machine, blocks the occasional shot and is a very effective post defender.
- 3. Alex Kovatchev. Sacramento State. Statistically he's the BSC's best defender. Metrics love him (lowest defensive rating in the conference).
- Newcomer: Montana could have three candidates (Pridgen, Moore, and Johnson)
- 1. Isaiah Hawthorne. Northern Colorado. Transfer from USF. NC finds these guys every year, but if NC finishes well, Hawthorne likely is going to be the newcomer of the year.
- 2. Joe Pridgen. Montana. Any other year, I think Pridgen likely is the leader in heading into the back stretch. He's a dunk machine, an above average defender, and does a lot of things well. His in the top 10 in PER in the conference.
- 3. Dylan Darling. Idaho State. As noted he's on a heater and the transfer from Washington State is an offensive menace. He scores, he dishes the ball.
- 4. Kolton Mitchell: Idaho. He's been one of the most influential Freshmen/Transfers in the conference and on a good team. Leads the conference in Freshman scoring, assists, steals and minutes. The transfer from ISU, who played in only 10 games year ago, has made an instant impact for the Vandals.
- Freshmen of the Year: This is anyone's race.
- 1. Emmett Marquardt: Eastern Washington. Among the league leaders in most categories for Freshmen.
- 2. Evan Otten: Idaho State. He's a defensive menace and is among the league leaders in blocks per game.
- 3. Lachlan Brewer. Sacramento State.
- 4. Trevor Hennig. Weber State.
- Coach of the Year:
- 1. Steve Smiley. Northern Colorado. Every year he just finds guys who can come in an compete from the portal.
Games of the Week #5:
Thursday Game: Montana @ Northern Colorado: Tier 1 Heavyweight matchup. Montana most likely needs to win this as if they lose they'll be 2 games behind in the loss column to NC and would have lost the season series to NC. So that would turn that two games into essentially a three game deficit that wouldn't likely to be overcome w/ just 7 games remaining. If NC wins, they'd have a commanding lead in the conference and would likely write them is as the #1 seed in the conference (Using pen). Honorable Mention: Portland State at Idaho. Idaho is good at home, Portland State on the road...after last week is well mediocre. This is in part why no team has been able to separate its self from that middle pack. Portland State probably needs to go 2-0 this weekend to stay in contact w/ UM for the second seed. They get both UM/NC at home in the second half. They can absolutely be the disruptor, the thrower of the wrench, and the longer they stay in it the more likely they cause Montana or NC significant problems.
Saturday Game: Idaho State @ Weber State: Just a few weeks ago, Weber State ran the Bengals out of Pocatello. If Idaho State wants to assert itself as a candidate for a top 2 seed in the BSC tournament they have to win this game. Montana is facing its toughest road trip all year (@NC/@NAU) and like Portland State, needs to find its footing to separate themselves from that morass in the middle of the pack. Honorable Mention: Montana State at Northern Colorado. MSU had an enormous lead in Bozeman and coughed it up. MSU defends well and has the personnel to cause NC problems and might have the type of juice to win in Greely.
Thanks for reading.
