Hey, I got this to you on Tuesday. Winning! Hopefully all the data I provide is reasonably accurate, as I don't have an editor and no ability to focus completely on small stuff some times.
What did we learn from Week #4:
---At this point there are at least three distinct tiers in the conference:
Thursday Game: Montana v. Portland State: Even with NC losing at Idaho on Thursday, this feels like a must win for either team if they have designs on winning the regular season title. Regardless, whomever wins this game likely has better footing to be a top 2 seed. Montana with its next 3 of 4 (two on the road) against PSU, NC and NAU, they absolutely have to hold serve at home against PSU to stay in contact w/ NC with the big game looming next week in Greely for Griz.
Saturday Game: Northern Arizona @ Northern Colorado: This feels like one of those season pivot games for Northern Arizona. They've clearly got a roster that should be top 3, but losing this game probably puts them at least 3 games behind second place and no victories against top schools. They win and it turns the second half conference slate into a survival of the fittest.
Monday Game: Northern Colorado @ Idaho State. This is a weird game week for NC, they have NAU at home then have to fly to Pocatello on Monday. NAU should be really tough and teams simply haven't played well in Pocatello this year. ISU gets three games at home and an opportunity to recover after their disasterous west coast trip. Seems like this is the week that makes/breaks ISU's conference season.
Thanks for reading.
| Rank | Team | Conference/NET | Last Week | This Week | What Post Season resume do they have? Likely NCAA Seed. |
1 | Northern Colorado | 7-1/139 | Rank: #1 1-1: Loss: @. Idaho (Q4) Win: @. Eastern Washington (Q4) | S: v. Northern Arizona (Q4) M: @ Idaho State (Q3) | 4-1 v. Q3. 1 Quad 4 loss. 14-16 Seed. |
2 | Montana | 6-2/211 | Rank: #2 2-1: Win: v. Montana State (Q4) | TH: v. Portland State (Q4) S: v. Sacramento State (Q4) | No Quad 4 losses. 2-2 v. Q3. 1 win v. top 100 net (SDSU) 15/16 seed. |
3 | Portland State | 5-2/192 | Rank: #4 2-0: Win: v. Weber State (Q4) Win: v. Idaho State (Q4) | TH: @ Montana (Q3) S: @ Montana State (Q3) | 9 quad 4 games, 7-2. 3-3 v. Quad 3. 15/16 seed. |
4 | Idaho | 4-4/244 | Rank: #5 1-1: Win: v. Northern Colorado (Q3) Loss: v. Northern Arizona (Q4) | TH: @ Weber State (Q4) S: @ Idaho State (Q3) | 9 Quad 4 games, 5 losses against Q4. 16 seed/Play In |
5 | Northern Arizona | 4-4/240 | Rank #8 2-0: Win: @ Eastern Washington (Q4) Win: @ Idaho (Q4) | S: @ Northern Colorado (Q3) M: @ Weber State (Q4) | 1 quad 1 game (0-1), 13! Quad 4 games and 4 losses. 0 Quad 3 wins. 16 seed/play-in |
6 | Idaho State | 3-4/200 | LW: #3 Loss: @ Sacramento State (Q4) Loss: @ Portland State (Q3) | TH: v. Eastern Washington (Q4) S: v. Idaho (Q4) M: v. Northern Colorado (Q3) | 8 games against quad 4, 4 losses. 1 quad 3 win. 16 seed. |
7 | Montana State | 3-5/191 | LW: #6 0-1 Loss: @ Montana (Q3) | TH: v. Sacramento State (Q4) S: v. Portland State (Q4) | 6-3 v. Q4, 1 Quad 3 1 win (6 losses). 16 seed/play-in |
8 | Eastern Washington | 2-6/264 | LW: #7 0-2 Loss: v. Northern Arizona (Q4) Loss: v. Northern Colorado (Q3) | TH: @ Idaho State (Q3) S: @ Weber State (Q4) | 0-11 v. Q1-3. 4-4 against quad 4. Play In. |
9 | Sacramento State | 2-5/335 | LW#9: 1-1 Win: v. Idaho State (Q4) Loss: v. Weber State (Q4) | TH: @ Montana State (Q3) S: @ Montana (Q3) | 0-6 v. Q1-3, 3-8 v. Q4. Play In. |
10 | Weber State | 2-5/261 | LW: #10 1-1: Loss: @ Portland State (Q3) Win: @ Sacramento State (Q4) | TH: v. Idaho (Q4) S: v. Eastern Washington (Q4) M: Northern Arizona (Q4) | 1-10 v. Q1-3, 4-3 v. Q4 Play In. |
What did we learn from Week #4:
---At this point there are at least three distinct tiers in the conference:
- Tier 1: Northern Colorado, Montana and Portland State
- Tier 2: Idaho, Northern Arizona, and Idaho State
- Tier 3: Montana State, Sacramento State, Weber State and Eastern Washington
- Quad 1: Home wins against teams ranked 1-30, Away wins 1-75
- Quad 2: Home wins against teams ranked 31-75, Away wins 75-135
- Quad 3: Home wins against teams ranked 76-160, Away wins 136-240
- Quad 4: Home wins against teams ranked 161-353, Away wins 241-353
- Northern Arizona. NAU had been so uneven to this point, where they couldn't get consistent performances from one night to next and one half to the next. They likely should be in that 1st tier, but really need to find a way to put together a string of wins. Have a big chance this week with games against perennial BSC leaders @UNC and @WSU. They really need to go 2-0 to establish momentum, but can ill-afford to go 0-2.
- Idaho State: Ooof. After a huge weekend that saw them go 2-0 against the Montana schools, including that huge 2nd half against Montana, they ventured away from the friendly confines of Reed Gym and promptly lost to Portland State (not the worst loss) but it was 4 point loss in Sacramento that hurt the most. That loss put in them solidly in the middle pack of teams of which there isn't much separation from 4th to 7th. Idaho State went from penthouse to the outhouse in one week.
Thursday Game: Montana v. Portland State: Even with NC losing at Idaho on Thursday, this feels like a must win for either team if they have designs on winning the regular season title. Regardless, whomever wins this game likely has better footing to be a top 2 seed. Montana with its next 3 of 4 (two on the road) against PSU, NC and NAU, they absolutely have to hold serve at home against PSU to stay in contact w/ NC with the big game looming next week in Greely for Griz.
Saturday Game: Northern Arizona @ Northern Colorado: This feels like one of those season pivot games for Northern Arizona. They've clearly got a roster that should be top 3, but losing this game probably puts them at least 3 games behind second place and no victories against top schools. They win and it turns the second half conference slate into a survival of the fittest.
Monday Game: Northern Colorado @ Idaho State. This is a weird game week for NC, they have NAU at home then have to fly to Pocatello on Monday. NAU should be really tough and teams simply haven't played well in Pocatello this year. ISU gets three games at home and an opportunity to recover after their disasterous west coast trip. Seems like this is the week that makes/breaks ISU's conference season.
Thanks for reading.
