Okay here is my power rankings heading truly into the second half of the season:
Tier 1:
1. Eastern Washington
Tier 2:
2. Montana
3. Montana State
4. Northern Colorado
5. Weber State
6. Portland State
Tier 3:
7. Idaho State
8. Sacramento State
9. NAU
10. Idaho
Team with the greatest margin of improvement: Weber State
Team with the best opportunity to win a game in the NCAA tournament: Eastern Washington
Midway POY: 1. Saint Thomas UNC 2. Dillon Jones WSU 3. Cedric Coward EWU
Newcomer: Saint Thomas or Brian Goracke (MSU)
I think this is EWU conference to lose at this point. They are so long, cause so many problems when you are defense and they are a matchup nightmare. That tier two group could finish up in any order, but my hunch is that Montana's strength is the depth of their starting 5 and some modicum of support off the bench would allow them to be favored to win 6 or their last 8 games. Could see Montana finishing 7-1 but 5-3 might end up being good enough to finish second this year. I sort of see UNC/MSU in the same boat. Leaning heavily on one or two players, limited bench and some questions defensively.
If Weber State figures things out, they probably have the highest ceiling of anyone not named Eastern. Wouldn't surprise me at all if they finished the season 13-5, at the same point I think it is a bit of a flip of a coin as to what we are going to get. Portland State should scare anyone, but their offense is so unpredictable (make nearly 40 threes against Montana and Montana State) and then follow that up shooting closer to their season average of about .30% from 3 in their next two.
The next tier is better than last year, but may not have all the pieces to improve to get out of a day 1 game in the conference tournament. I think Idaho showed last weekend that they have significantly improved (took Montana to the wire and beat MSU), but I wonder how much their struggles on the defensive end won't hold them back. If there was a team that could break out of that group is ISU. They can't seem to hold on the ball, but they do have a in/out combo that has show that can be good enough to beat anyone. If they clean things up, ISU has 5 or 6 very winnable games (play 5 at home).
Tier 1:
1. Eastern Washington
Tier 2:
2. Montana
3. Montana State
4. Northern Colorado
5. Weber State
6. Portland State
Tier 3:
7. Idaho State
8. Sacramento State
9. NAU
10. Idaho
Team with the greatest margin of improvement: Weber State
Team with the best opportunity to win a game in the NCAA tournament: Eastern Washington
Midway POY: 1. Saint Thomas UNC 2. Dillon Jones WSU 3. Cedric Coward EWU
Newcomer: Saint Thomas or Brian Goracke (MSU)
I think this is EWU conference to lose at this point. They are so long, cause so many problems when you are defense and they are a matchup nightmare. That tier two group could finish up in any order, but my hunch is that Montana's strength is the depth of their starting 5 and some modicum of support off the bench would allow them to be favored to win 6 or their last 8 games. Could see Montana finishing 7-1 but 5-3 might end up being good enough to finish second this year. I sort of see UNC/MSU in the same boat. Leaning heavily on one or two players, limited bench and some questions defensively.
If Weber State figures things out, they probably have the highest ceiling of anyone not named Eastern. Wouldn't surprise me at all if they finished the season 13-5, at the same point I think it is a bit of a flip of a coin as to what we are going to get. Portland State should scare anyone, but their offense is so unpredictable (make nearly 40 threes against Montana and Montana State) and then follow that up shooting closer to their season average of about .30% from 3 in their next two.
The next tier is better than last year, but may not have all the pieces to improve to get out of a day 1 game in the conference tournament. I think Idaho showed last weekend that they have significantly improved (took Montana to the wire and beat MSU), but I wonder how much their struggles on the defensive end won't hold them back. If there was a team that could break out of that group is ISU. They can't seem to hold on the ball, but they do have a in/out combo that has show that can be good enough to beat anyone. If they clean things up, ISU has 5 or 6 very winnable games (play 5 at home).
