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Analysis Through 5 Games

mtgrizrule

Well-known member
Happy Holidays All. I've been in hibernation for the most part, with all this virus crap, and working very demanding hours. Anyway, I finally got a chance to quickly observe the USC and GA games, and of course listened to the other games. Hopefully, will watch the other games on Demand on Pluto. With that said, I might be a little off with my analysis to this point. I'll give it a shot though.


Despite the losses, this team has some terrific upside. The questions, can the upside be stronger than the inexperience? How long will it take for the upside to start showing, in terms of execution and W's? Who will emerge as on court leaders?

No question, the youth and inexperience is showing early in the season. That is to be expected. Despite the youth, inexperience, and losses, this team has played with, or even outplayed the likes of USC and Georgia for 60% to 75% of each game. The problem has been slow starts against Power 5 programs, bad reboundg, turnovers, and inconsistent offense. Offensively, continuity will come with experience, awareness, and growing confidence.

As for rebounding, we don't have the above average rebounding guards like we have in the past. The only guard capable of it this season is Satterwhite. Vasquez, Parker, Whitney are too slight and young to be expected to fill much of rebounding role. The rebounding has to come from the bigs. Steadman has proven to be a solid rebounder, the last few seasons at San Jose State. However, did he drop too much weight? Henderson definitely has the build and strength to be a huge asset on the boards. How long will it take for him to fit into a role though? Anderson is always in the mix for rebounds. Unfortunately, he has to stop fouling, to be an asset. Owens is a solid rebounding SF/3, but still needs strength to hang and bang with true bigs. I feel, with Satterwhite and DCH in the rotation, those 2 alone will immensely help with rebounding. Their loss is hurting the team, in this regard. Bannan will only get better on the boards, with experience. Common sense dictates, rebounding will improve. I actually think, with the depth we have, it could become an asset by the time we get to the conference tournament.

Turnovers, again something that should be easy to get under control. Experience alone will decrease the turnovers. DeCuire has a great history having his teams taking care of the ball. No reason whatsoever to not believe this won't improve, and improve dramatically.

As for leadership, offensive consistency, and slow starts, I think, the key is on court leadership and awareness improving. Awareness comes with experience and continuity. That tells me, who will the leaders be to replace the likes of Pridgett (arguably the best leader in GRIZ history), Manuel, and Samuelson? Collectively, there isn't anyone that has been in that role. For me, I'd be expecting Steadman, Owens, DCH, and Satterwhite to be those leaders. I don't know if any of the young guards are ready for that leadership role. Steadman and Satterwhite are experienced Div 1 players. Absolutely no reason, for them not to lead. Owens is the modern version of Jordan Gregory, with his commitment to self improvement, year around. That alone, should be a natural progression for him. He already leads by example. DCH has a Pridgett like junkyard toughness. Whitney sure looks to be the future leader at guard. Expecting that from a true Freshman is difficult though.

Offensive execution, the team has a nice mix of slashers, potential outside shooters, and inside scoring. No doubt, the pieces are in place. How long will it take to find the continuity and confidence? For 1, looking at the stats and comfort level, get the ball to Owens and Steadman as often as possible. Owens has emerged as an all conference type player. He is a true SF/3, that should be a matchup nightmare. He is calm with the ball in his hands, scores inside, outside, penetrating, and looks confident. Also, take the time to see how aware he is on both ends of the court. He quickly knows who is where, on both ends of the court. I feel, he belongs on the court against any competition. He's a year ahead of schedule, in my opinion. The game is looking easy for him. He's not pressing. He's confident and so smooth. Love Kyle Owens!!! Steadman needs to see the ball a lot more! He has a nice array of post moves, solid mid game, and can get his shot off consistently. The problem isn't him. His teammates have to focus on getting him the ball to take advantage of his skill set, just like they learned to do with Akoh and Breunig. I am very confident in Steadman.

I honestly believe Vasquez, Egan, and Brown can all be high % 3 ball shooters. Vasquez needs to get more open looks. Egan needs to calm down with the ball in his hands, when he isn't open for a shot. He is capable of being another above average rebounding and defensive guard too. Brown, needs to bring more to the table in terms of defense and ball handling. I don't question his shooting at all.

Parker has surprisingly been efficient, just not sure if he can maintain consistency with his shot. More power to him, if he can be consistent from the perimeter. Whitney can potentially be another Rorie. He's going to be a nightmare match up as he matures physically. I already love his body control, confidence, and awareness. Again, how much should we expect from a true freshman? He can only get better. He's going to be a great one.

Now onto Bannan. I see huge upside in him. He's a 3 level scorer, but can improve his perimeter consistency. He has nice touch and moves in the paint. He's a solid ball handler for his size too. The speed of the game will come to him. Physically, I'm not sure, how long it will take him. Normally, the physical part of the game takes a few years for a big. Speaking of freshman, how much can Beasley and Clarke contribute? We aren't in a hurry for Beasley. A redshirt season might be needed for his injury. Clarke can definitely help with his perimeter game. I hope to see him soon.

Overall, with DeCuire's history and solid staff, I really like the potential this team holds. Leadership absolutely has to emerge. If that happens, I won't be surprised to see this team win the BSC tournament. My biggest concern and question, how long will it take for the youth to emerge? Will it come together this year, or next?
 
Great to have you back, GrizRule. That was to be my next post: Where are you?

A couple observations jumped out at me.

--Rebounding from the guard line. Excellent point.

--Steadman's weight. I agree. Division One post play is not for Jenny Craig.

Hey, don't be a stranger!
 
Thx for the analysis. My key points, all from your analysis:

1. "How long will it take for the upside to start showing, in terms of execution and W's? Who will emerge as on court leaders?"

I like the guards, but none of them are close, yet, to the top guards UM has had in the past dozen years. They need to clean up their passing.

Need a player or two who can take over when the game is close and make the big bucket or big play. Consistently.

2. "Rebounding".

In addition to what has been said, I don't think enough of the team boxes well and keeps the O off the boards. Also, more of the bigs need to win the rebound when they have good position, and not let the other team take it away from them. Satterwhite has 3 rebounds in 39.5 minutes of play. On a 40 minute analysis, that is the worst on the team except for Whitney.

3. "TO's".

Way too many bad passes, often by good players, good passers, and guards.

4. "Shooting". I think the shooting is there, among multiple players, and will improve over time.

5. "Owens". He has shown that he is a much improved player and a force to be reckoned with.
 
PlayerRep said:
Thx for the analysis. My key points, all from your analysis:

1. "How long will it take for the upside to start showing, in terms of execution and W's? Who will emerge as on court leaders?"

I like the guards, but none of them are close, yet, to the top guards UM has had in the past dozen years. They need to clean up their passing.

Need a player or two who can take over when the game is close and make the big bucket or big play. Consistently.

2. "Rebounding".

In addition to what has been said, I don't think enough of the team boxes well and keeps the O off the boards. Also, more of the bigs need to win the rebound when they have good position, and not let the other team take it away from them. Satterwhite has 3 rebounds in 39.5 minutes of play. On a 40 minute analysis, that is the worst on the team except for Whitney.

3. "TO's".

Way too many bad passes, often by good players, good passers, and guards.

4. "Shooting". I think the shooting is there, among multiple players, and will improve over time.

5. "Owens". He has shown that he is a much improved player and a force to be reckoned with.
To your point about needing a big bucket PR, I think Vazquez proved in those SUU games that he’s capable of doing that, so I feel that problem has been addressed.
 
Starting with mtgrizrule's outstanding analysis, and including all the add-on comments, this is a great, and pretty complete "fan's view" perspective of the 2020 version of the Griz. The problems, if any, are challenges that coach DeCuire is obviously addressing game by game with multiple lineup variations and some interesting classic Grizzly (a la Jud Heathcoate) Hi Lo in-paint rotations between post and power forward. In essence, from my point of view, this is a highly talented mostly young team with an experienced post in Steadman that simply needs game-by-game experience getting used to each other and figuring how to make things click, regardless of the lineup.

There is only one thing I haven't-yet identified, but which you all have recognized: a floor general. There have been many situations where it looks like some of the players (especially over the final five minutes of each loss to SUU) were hesitating... as if saying, "who? me?" and looking to dish it to someone willing to take the game over. When the plays came from the coaches, then they were ok (as in Josh's steadily developing stop, pivot & shoot treys). So, what I'm saying in a lot of words is exactly what PlayerRep said in one sentence. In essence: 'Who will emerge as on court leaders?"

Love this team. The Sky is the limit. It's only a matter of time. Hope it's this year. Perhaps the only thing I can't yet predict is how the team chemistry will cook up the right on-court attitude that cranks things up a notch over the final minutes and results in wins. Look forward to see how they figure it out. Go Griz.
 
Thanks to Grizrule for the excellent analysis. The add-on comments have been great as well. It is really refreshing to see constructive criticism versus some of the negativity by certain commenters.

From a strictly analytic perspective there are some interesting trends (A little early to tell definitively because there have only been four D-1 games so should be taken with a grain of salt. The Yellowstone game is not included for obvious reasons):


1. Based on the number of offensive and defensive possessions, Montana basically has four main five-man lineup combinations. One of those combinations is really, really struggling to the point where right now they probably shouldn’t be on the floor at the same time. The other three are actually doing well. Satterwhite, DCH, Mack and Freddy are not included in this analysis because they haven’t had enough possessions with any particular 5 players to make any type of judgement. Although I will say there was one DCH/Satterwhite combination that was crazy. Will be exciting to see them on the floor together.

2. I would only classify one player as struggling, but I am confident he will turn it around.

3. According to the Box Plus Minus (BPM) and Player Efficiency Rating (PER), Owens has been the best player. I don’t think anyone needs analytics to figure that one out. The BPM is the not the +/- you would think of in an NBA box score, but an algorithm that calculates how a much a player is contributing per 100 possessions. It would be interesting to hear guesses on who the 2nd best player has been so far and whether what people are seeing/feeling matches with what the analytics say.

4. This team gets almost no easy buckets. Adjusted Tempo is ranked 292nd out of 357 D-1 teams and Average Possession Length is 18.6 seconds (284/357), which means they are grinding in the half court. In addition, Offensive Rebound Percentage is 292/357 so there are no easy baskets there either. The 357 number is a little off due to the number of teams opting out thus far, but I don’t think that impacts the analysis.


Again, only 4 D-1 games into a long season so really difficult to draw conclusions. Also, as everyone knows analytics are only one piece of the evaluation process, but I feel once the Power-5 portion of the season is completed, this team will be well positioned to compete for a title. Just need a little patience.
 
Griz til I die said:
PlayerRep said:
Thx for the analysis. My key points, all from your analysis:

1. "How long will it take for the upside to start showing, in terms of execution and W's? Who will emerge as on court leaders?"

I like the guards, but none of them are close, yet, to the top guards UM has had in the past dozen years. They need to clean up their passing.

Need a player or two who can take over when the game is close and make the big bucket or big play. Consistently.

2. "Rebounding".

In addition to what has been said, I don't think enough of the team boxes well and keeps the O off the boards. Also, more of the bigs need to win the rebound when they have good position, and not let the other team take it away from them. Satterwhite has 3 rebounds in 39.5 minutes of play. On a 40 minute analysis, that is the worst on the team except for Whitney.

3. "TO's".

Way too many bad passes, often by good players, good passers, and guards.

4. "Shooting". I think the shooting is there, among multiple players, and will improve over time.

5. "Owens". He has shown that he is a much improved player and a force to be reckoned with.
To your point about needing a big bucket PR, I think Vazquez proved in those SUU games that he’s capable of doing that, so I feel that problem has been addressed.

Good point, but I still don't think that issue has been addressed. See Journal's middle para in his above post. I agree with that.
 
grizzlyjournal said:
Starting with mtgrizrule's outstanding analysis, and including all the add-on comments, this is a great, and pretty complete "fan's view" perspective of the 2020 version of the Griz. The problems, if any, are challenges that coach DeCuire is obviously addressing game by game with multiple lineup variations and some interesting classic Grizzly (a la Jud Heathcoate) Hi Lo in-paint rotations between post and power forward. In essence, from my point of view, this is a highly talented mostly young team with an experienced post in Steadman that simply needs game-by-game experience getting used to each other and figuring how to make things click, regardless of the lineup.

There is only one thing I haven't-yet identified, but which you all have recognized: a floor general. There have been many situations where it looks like some of the players (especially over the final five minutes of each loss to SUU) were hesitating... as if saying, "who? me?" and looking to dish it to someone willing to take the game over. When the plays came from the coaches, then they were ok (as in Josh's steadily developing stop, pivot & shoot treys). So, what I'm saying in a lot of words is exactly what PlayerRep said in one sentence. In essence: 'Who will emerge as on court leaders?"

Love this team. The Sky is the limit. It's only a matter of time. Hope it's this year. Perhaps the only thing I can't yet predict is how the team chemistry will cook up the right on-court attitude that cranks things up a notch over the final minutes and results in wins. Look forward to see how they figure it out. Go Griz.

The quote on, on-court leaders was in Rule's initial post.
 
GrizBall said:
Thanks to Grizrule for the excellent analysis. The add-on comments have been great as well. It is really refreshing to see constructive criticism versus some of the negativity by certain commenters.

From a strictly analytic perspective there are some interesting trends (A little early to tell definitively because there have only been four D-1 games so should be taken with a grain of salt. The Yellowstone game is not included for obvious reasons):


1. Based on the number of offensive and defensive possessions, Montana basically has four main five-man lineup combinations. One of those combinations is really, really struggling to the point where right now they probably shouldn’t be on the floor at the same time. The other three are actually doing well. Satterwhite, DCH, Mack and Freddy are not included in this analysis because they haven’t had enough possessions with any particular 5 players to make any type of judgement. Although I will say there was one DCH/Satterwhite combination that was crazy. Will be exciting to see them on the floor together.

2. I would only classify one player as struggling, but I am confident he will turn it around.

3. According to the Box Plus Minus (BPM) and Player Efficiency Rating (PER), Owens has been the best player. I don’t think anyone needs analytics to figure that one out. The BPM is the not the +/- you would think of in an NBA box score, but an algorithm that calculates how a much a player is contributing per 100 possessions. It would be interesting to hear guesses on who the 2nd best player has been so far and whether what people are seeing/feeling matches with what the analytics say.

4. This team gets almost no easy buckets. Adjusted Tempo is ranked 292nd out of 357 D-1 teams and Average Possession Length is 18.6 seconds (284/357), which means they are grinding in the half court. In addition, Offensive Rebound Percentage is 292/357 so there are no easy baskets there either. The 357 number is a little off due to the number of teams opting out thus far, but I don’t think that impacts the analysis.


Again, only 4 D-1 games into a long season so really difficult to draw conclusions. Also, as everyone knows analytics are only one piece of the evaluation process, but I feel once the Power-5 portion of the season is completed, this team will be well positioned to compete for a title. Just need a little patience.

Agree with you it's good to read thoughtful analysis to get new perspectives. I also am interested in analytical angles but I'd have to say it's really too small a sample size given DJ and Satterwhite being out on top of that. The struggling to score is not new, long stretches last year would fit that category. I wonder what the difference was between last year and the year prior when we had 2 of the best guards in conference, just curious on that. We haven't really had any cupcakes (save for YCC) to experiment lineup wise and against the tougher teams that has been ugly at times. There were some nice stretches against GA in the early to mid second half when we got within 4 or 5 IIRC, unfortunately followed by a multiple possession TO blizzard that shut the door.

I do think KO can be that low post clutch guy that Pridgett was, he's really developed multiple moves down there. It would be nice to see them push it after rebounds to get some easy points on the break or attacking the hoop before the D gets set. To me that's where Parker has the experience to set that tone for the new guards. I'd just like to see more aggression offensively. I'm resigned to the fact it's going to be a weird year. KO talked about getting started late with the new guys last summer because of Bat Soup Flu in an interview the had on Tootell and Colter last week for starters and I'd bet it delays the discovery of the best combos you are pointing out. So I'm also patient and it's been a weird year up to now, won't surprise if the bball season is too. I bet we see alot of changes all year, hopefully the finished product at year end can make the Dance. We have the talent if it comes together from my perspective. Did see EWoo vs WSU and they looked solid but not on another level by any measure.
 
Watching EWU and St. Mary's, and EWU looks pretty good, but I doubt they can continue to be as aggressive as they have been in this game. They have some great under the basket players, and Robertson seems to be a major 3 pt shooter. Twice EWU has led by 9 but can't hold it.
 
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