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A new look at the Big Sky Playoff scenarios

Paytonlives

Paytonlives

Moderator
Staff member
DIRECTLY FROM NCAA.COM

How do teams get into the FCS playoffs?
The field of 24 is split into two different qualifiers: 10 automatic and 14 at-large.
The automatic qualifiers are the teams that win one of the 10 conferences that receive automatic bids. The at-large qualifiers are selected by the FCS Playoff Selection Committee.

What does the Selection Committee look at in its process?
For information on selecting, seeding, and bracketing teams, the committee may consider comparative data of individual teams, including but not limited to:
-Overall record
-Record against Division I opponents (an institution with fewer than six Division I wins may place that team in jeopardy of not being selected)
-Record against opponents from other AQ conferences
-Record against Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) opponents
-Head-to-head record
-Record against common opponents
-NCAA Simple Rating System (NCAA SRS) Data
-FCS Coaches Poll
-Input from regional advisory committees

How does seeding for the FCS playoff work?
Once the full field of 24 teams is completed, the committee seeds the top eight teams. This begins with committee members recommending teams for the top-eight seed pool. A team must receive at least 30 percent of the votes to be included in the seed pool. Once this is done, each committee member ranks the teams in the seed pool via poll vote. The committee reviews and discusses this preliminary ranking before voting again. This final vote produces the eight seeded teams, in order.

The seeded teams receive a first-round bye in the tournament. The remaining 16 teams play first-round games and are paired according to geographic proximity and then placed in the bracket according to geographic proximity to the top eight seeds.


SO WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN FOR THE BS CONF?

*#4 Kittens (8-1) Beat #5 EWU 23-20
Will probably move up to #3 and a win against Idaho assures them a playoff slot no matter what they do in Missoula. Even if they lose both, at 8-3 they are in.

#5 EWU (7-2) Lost to *#4 Kittens (8-1) 23-20
Will drop a few spots, maybe #8, and are teetering on playoff disaster. They play at Davis and at PSU to end the season. They better win 1 of those or might be sitting at home at 7-4 with 4 straight loses

*#8 UC Davis (8-1) Beat *NAU (4-5) 40-24
3 teams in front of them lost, my guess is they are #5 May be even #4 on Monday. The FCS decision makers don't like to see teams lose their last 2 games so they need to either beat EWU or Sac State. But 8-3 probably still gets them in.

*#11 Montana (7-2) Beat *Northern Colorado (3-7) 35-0
Looked much better this week, Cam is a difference maker. UM plays NAU on the road and kittens at home. NAU lost both their #1 and #2 QB's against Davis on Saturday and its hard to say who will play. The 3rd guy looked very shaky. My guess is UM blitzes the hell out of him if he is the starter. UM should win and that would mean they are in the playoffs no matter the Nov 20 outcome. If UM wins both they probably get a seed at 9-2.

*#16 Sacramento State (7-2) Beat *Cal-Poly (1-8) 41-9
They just keep winning... They play PSU at Home and Davis on the road. I believe that if they win both they will be the Big Sky champ and get the Auto Bid. (Im too tired to figure it out): Win 1 and 8-3 playoff team

NR- Portland State (5-4) Beat *Weber (4-5) 30-18
This sounds nuts... but they have an outside shot at the playoffs if they can win their last 2 games. Problem is those games are at Sac state and EWU at home. If they were some how to win both they would be 7-4, with two FBS loses and a 5 game winning streak including Weber, Sac State and EWU to end the season. Watched PSU on Saturday and they believe, and will be a tough game for Sac State this week.

#24 Weber State (4-5) lost to PSU 30-18
Put a fork in them.... they are done
 
Agree. Good analysis. We control our own destiny, can't ask for much more than that!

Get em Griz!
 
kemajic said:
I can't see past Saturday and NAU.
Click to expand...

Let’s hope the team is thinking the same way!! Good point and don’t look beyond the opponent in front of you. I would think with everything on the line - they will be very focused.
 
Paytonlives said:
What does the Selection Committee look at in its process?
For information on selecting, seeding, and bracketing teams, the committee may consider comparative data of individual teams, including but not limited to:
-Overall record
-Record against Division I opponents (an institution with fewer than six Division I wins may place that team in jeopardy of not being selected)
-Record against opponents from other AQ conferences
-Record against Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) opponents
-Head-to-head record
-Record against common opponents
-NCAA Simple Rating System (NCAA SRS) Data
-FCS Coaches Poll
-Input from regional advisory committees


NR- Portland State (5-4) Beat *Weber (4-5) 30-18
This sounds nuts... but they have an outside shot at the playoffs if they can win their last 2 games. Problem is those games are at Sac state and EWU at home. If they were some how to win both they would be 7-4, with two FBS loses and a 5 game winning streak including Weber, Sac State and EWU to end the season. Watched PSU on Saturday and they believe, and will be a tough game for Sac State this week.
Click to expand...

One of their wins was against Western Oregon (they did the no-no of scheduling 2 FBS and a non-DI together...basically assuring 3 games that won't strengthen your resume for playoffs unless your team manages to pull off a rare FBS upset). I think they are already done because as I'm looking though other conferences, there aren't as many non-DI games this year compared to the past, it seems. But you're right, that end-of-season run would catch some eyes and get some discussion going if it happened.
 
DoubleNicks said:
Paytonlives said:
What does the Selection Committee look at in its process?
For information on selecting, seeding, and bracketing teams, the committee may consider comparative data of individual teams, including but not limited to:
-Overall record
-Record against Division I opponents (an institution with fewer than six Division I wins may place that team in jeopardy of not being selected)
-Record against opponents from other AQ conferences
-Record against Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) opponents
-Head-to-head record
-Record against common opponents
-NCAA Simple Rating System (NCAA SRS) Data
-FCS Coaches Poll
-Input from regional advisory committees


NR- Portland State (5-4) Beat *Weber (4-5) 30-18
This sounds nuts... but they have an outside shot at the playoffs if they can win their last 2 games. Problem is those games are at Sac state and EWU at home. If they were some how to win both they would be 7-4, with two FBS loses and a 5 game winning streak including Weber, Sac State and EWU to end the season. Watched PSU on Saturday and they believe, and will be a tough game for Sac State this week.
Click to expand...

One of their wins was against Western Oregon (they did the no-no of scheduling 2 FBS and a non-DI together...basically assuring 3 games that won't strengthen your resume for playoffs unless your team manages to pull off a rare FBS upset). I think they are already done because as I'm looking though other conferences, there aren't as many non-DI games this year compared to the past, it seems. But you're right, that end-of-season run would catch some eyes and get some discussion going if it happened.
Click to expand...

Yes its an outside chance and will depend on the other conferences and their loss totals
 
kemajic said:
I can't see past Saturday and NAU.
Click to expand...

The team better not. But this being a fan board and PL took the time to lay so much out about the BSC playoff picture I was willing to risk my $0.02 worth.

Griz win out and we get a seed.
It starts by taking care of Bizness this Saturday
 
Looks like with JMU moving to the Sunbelt they no longer can qualify for conference championships or automatic bids meaning they will be getting an at-large bid this year opening up another seed.
 
UTGrizFan said:
Looks like with JMU moving to the Sunbelt they no longer can qualify for conference championships or automatic bids meaning they will be getting an at-large bid this year opening up another seed.
Click to expand...
This isn't true. CAA Football has separate bylaws, so they can still win the CAA and get the autobid, but even if it didn't, they could still get a seed without an automatic bid/conference championship.
 
uofmman1122 said:
UTGrizFan said:
Looks like with JMU moving to the Sunbelt they no longer can qualify for conference championships or automatic bids meaning they will be getting an at-large bid this year opening up another seed.
Click to expand...
This isn't true. CAA Football has separate bylaws, so they can still win the CAA and get the autobid, but even if it didn't, they could still get a seed without an automatic bid/conference championship.
Click to expand...
Yep. That's been commented upon quite a lot. Here's just one article: https://www.elonnewsnetwork.com/art...ens-soccer-team-qualify-conference-tournament

Elon News said:
The Colonial Athletic Association announced Wednesday that James Madison will be banned from competing in postseason tournaments, excluding this week’s women’s soccer and women’s field hockey tournaments. Additionally, James Madison will no longer be allowed to host four tournaments scheduled to be on its campus this season - men’s soccer, women’s basketball, women’s lacrosse and softball.

The ban will not impact James Madison’s football team, which will still be allowed to receive the CAA’s automatic bid to the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs due to separate football bylaws.

However, the conference championship ban could have immediate implications for Elon’s men’s soccer team. James Madison, the winner of the last three CAA titles, has already clinched one of the four spots in next weekend’s conference tournament, but the Dukes will no longer be allowed to compete.
Click to expand...
The main reason for the move to the Sun Belt Conference was so the football program could move to the FBS level. So, because of a loophole in the rules, football slides through, but all the other JMU athletes are screwed.

FWIW: With their current record, JMU is almost certain to get an at-large bid to the FCS playoffs.
 
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