A new era at UM! Welcome President Shinn!

[mthoopsfan]

Here's another looking problem. From Gemini:

"Yes, the number of high school graduates in the U.S. is expected to start declining very soon. Demographers and education researchers often refer to this impending shift as the "Enrollment Cliff."
According to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), which produces the industry-standard "Knocking at the College Door" report, the total number of U.S. high school graduates is projected to peak in 2025 at approximately 3.9 million students. After that peak, a steady and significant decline is expected to begin.

Why Is This Happening?​

The primary driver is the "Birth Dearth"—a sharp drop in U.S. birth rates that began during the Great Recession in 2008. Since students typically graduate high school about 18 years after they are born, the "cliff" is scheduled to arrive right on time in 2026.

Key Projections​

• Total Decline: By 2041, the number of graduates is expected to fall to roughly 3.4 million, a 13% decrease from the 2025 peak.
• Regional Differences: The decline will not hit every state equally. The Northeast (-17%) and Midwest (-16%) are expected to see the sharpest drops. Conversely, some states in the South and West (like Florida, Texas, and Idaho) may actually see growth due to domestic migration.
• Demographic Shifts: While the overall number is dropping, the diversity of the graduating class is increasing. The number of Hispanic and multiracial graduates is projected to rise, while the number of White and Black graduates is expected to decline.

Why It Matters​

This trend is a major concern for colleges and universities. With fewer high schoolers graduating, many institutions—especially smaller, private colleges in the Midwest and Northeast—face a "shrinking pool" of potential applicants, which could lead to budget cuts, mergers, or closures.

States with the Largest Projected Declines (by 2041)​

State	Projected Decline
Hawaii	-32.9%
Illinois	-31.9%
California	-29.0%
New York	-26.6%
West Virginia	-25.6%

 

[Griz til I die]

I think it comes down to really increasing the Marketing/Recruiting budget. I have no idea what a school like MSU or a comparable size school to UM has in terms of Enrollment staff, and maybe cutting one of those 4 staffers helps with that, but if the rumors are true that Bodnar and his team placed an emphasis on email and digital campaigns, then I think that's a failed strategy on his part. I can count on one hand how many times I checked my personal email when I was in high school. Kids would rather come home from school and see the kitchen table flooded with recruiting materials rather than having all that stuff go to your junk folder.

The biggest problem that UM has and has had for decades is just storytelling. An example is I'm a high school Tennis coach and a couple of kids on my team are kind of interested in concerts and the music industry. They're interested in going to UM but they weren't sure they would go there cause they don't know what to major in. I told them about UM's new 4 year degree in Entertainment Management. Before it was just a certificate in the Business school and at the time it was the most popular certificate in the Business school because of the great pipeline of internships and full time jobs they have in the Entertainment industry. I told these two kids about EM now being offered as a Bachelors degree and you should've seen the way their eyes lit up. That night after practice they ran home and told their parents about it and started researching the program a bit. The next week they came up to me during practice and said they're now going to UM and are going to major in Entertainment Management.

All you gotta do is just tell these kids what their options are. the more they know about UM and everything we have to offer, the more likely they are to be interested in UM. It's not Rocket Science and President Shinn knows this. He comes from the Enrollment and Student Affairs area. He should be able to fix these problems in the short term.

 

[mthoopsfan]

Gemini:

"Whether college enrollment is increasing or decreasing depends on how you look at the timeline. While there has been a steady long-term decline since 2010, the most recent data shows a slight rebound—though it may be the "last hurrah" before the demographic cliff hits.

As of early 2026, here is the current state of U.S. college enrollment:

The Current Trend: A Modest Rebound​

After years of pandemic-related drops, total postsecondary enrollment actually grew by about 1.0% in Fall 2025, reaching approximately 19.4 million students.

• Community Colleges are the Engine: The growth is almost entirely driven by community colleges, which saw a 3.0% increase. Students are increasingly choosing these for their lower costs and vocational programs.
• Public 4-Year Universities: These saw a modest gain of 1.4%.
• Private 4-Year Colleges: This sector is struggling. Private nonprofit enrollment dropped by 1.6%, and private for-profits fell by 2.0%. Many of these schools are facing significant financial pressure.

---

Why the Outlook is Still "Decreasing" Long-Term​

Despite the small bump in 2025, experts are still sounding the alarm for the next decade due to several critical factors:

1. The Demographic Cliff (2026–2030)​

As we discussed regarding high school graduates, the "Birth Dearth" of 2008 means the pool of 18-year-olds is about to shrink drastically. Colleges are bracing for a 15% drop in the college-age population over the next few years.

2. The "Gender Gap"​

Young men are opting out of college at record rates. There are currently about one million fewer men in college than there were in 2011. Women now make up nearly 60% of all U.S. college students.

3. Shift in Program Interest​

Even while total numbers are slightly up, students are moving away from traditional liberal arts.

• Declining: Computer Science (surprisingly, seeing its first major dip in years) and Liberal Arts.
• Increasing: Health professions (Nursing) and skilled trades certificates.

4. FAFSA Fallout​

The 2024–2025 FAFSA technical delays had a lasting impact. Surveys indicate that 1 in 4 students faced challenges staying enrolled or starting college because of the financial aid "chaos," which discouraged many low-income and first-generation students from attending at all.

---

Summary Table: Enrollment Change by Sector (Fall 2025)​

Institution Type	Trend	Change
Community Colleges	Increasing	+3.0%
Public 4-Year	Increasing	+1.4%
Private Nonprofit 4-Year	Decreasing	-1.6%
Private For-Profit 4-Year	Decreasing	-2.0%

 

[MissoulaMarinerFan]

Someone please explain to me how we're going to increase enrollment by cutting programs and giving students less options on what to study, especially when those same programs are alive and well at the other university in the state that we directly compete with in a zero-sum game for students (that we're losing).

"But no one is joining those programs!"

Yeah, almost like deprioritizing and cutting staff in those programs for 15 years chasing "trending" degrees that caused a net negative loss of students was a bad move.

Shinn's got his work cut out for him.

A few responses

If you ran a business, would you keep offering a service that no one is buying? I'm not suggesting cutting programs is the silver bullet, but UM currently offers 500+ total degrees and certificates for grad and undergrad - plenty of options...but maybe not the right ones? Maybe package up differently those degrees that haven't had anybody in them? I dunno.

Enrollment didn't fall off a cliff in the 2010s because programs got cut.

What "trending" degrees? Cybersecurity? More stuff in computing where the demand is there more than ever?

Agreed on your other points in your follow-up posts. Good point for mthoops about the enrollment cliff and FAFSA stuff too.

Shinn does have his work cut out for him. I attended the public forum during his visit and I was impressed with his clarity about the University cannot be what it was in 2019 or whatever in the past. It sounded to me that he understands there is work and will be aggressive about finding a solution, but we will see.

Sidebar which makes me chuckle....is that why taco bell, mcdonalds, etc is always hiring because there are way less high schoolers to fill those positions?

 

[argh!]

Someone please explain to me how we're going to increase enrollment by cutting programs and giving students less options on what to study, especially when those same programs are alive and well at the other university in the state that we directly compete with in a zero-sum game for students (that we're losing).

"But no one is joining those programs!"

Yeah, almost like deprioritizing and cutting staff in those programs for 15 years chasing "trending" degrees that caused a net negative loss of students was a bad move.

Shinn's got his work cut out for him.

a case in point would be universities cutting programs to make room for pharmacy schools, or for dramatically increasing the size of those that already existed, from about 2004 to about 2019. the pharmacy school market very quickly became over-saturated with schools, as did the profession. salaries went down, and jobs, especially those in retail, went down as well. then students started realizing the job wasn't as great as they thought, particularly given the cost of attending in time and money, so student enrollments dropped significantly (60% reduction). lots of pharmacy professors were fired for fiduciary reasons, and many others had to sign 9 month contracts with reduced salaries, but it wasn't a fast process. i have had experience with one that closed last year, after opening in about 2010 and eventually out-performing in the state (maine).

that's all, just wanted to give an example.

 

[argh!]

the one area that has been growing for a long time now is on-line degree programs being offered by established, traditional universities. and it is growing fast. as a professor i didn't like being a part of on-line classes because i thought the students were missing vital parts of the educational experience, like gaining skills with interacting with others going into the same profession. plus it was more work, less rewarding, and hard to keep students, who bombed professors with emails at all times of day and night, 'happy'.

but it's still growing fast and making money. does anyone here know much about um's online offerings?

 

[uofmman1122]

A few responses

If you ran a business, would you keep offering a service that no one is buying? I'm not suggesting cutting programs is the silver bullet, but UM currently offers 500+ total degrees and certificates for grad and undergrad - plenty of options...but maybe not the right ones? Maybe package up differently those degrees that haven't had anybody in them? I dunno.

Enrollment didn't fall off a cliff in the 2010s because programs got cut.

What "trending" degrees? Cybersecurity? More stuff in computing where the demand is there more than ever?

Agreed on your other points in your follow-up posts. Good point for mthoops about the enrollment cliff and FAFSA stuff too.

Shinn does have his work cut out for him. I attended the public forum during his visit and I was impressed with his clarity about the University cannot be what it was in 2019 or whatever in the past. It sounded to me that he understands there is work and will be aggressive about finding a solution, but we will see.

Sidebar which makes me chuckle....is that why taco bell, mcdonalds, etc is always hiring because there are way less high schoolers to fill those positions?

I think it's even more of an indictment of the process when you're paying consultants and admins so much, they're telling you that you need to get more into "modern" tech degrees, and you only manage a couple new offerings. Don't get me wrong, I like those degrees and think they're good additions to the school, but the problem is that they neglected the soul of the university in the process.

It's true that program cuts didn't cause enrollment to decline, but they're certainly contributing to why it won't be going up again without massive changes.

It would be one thing if the humanities had a universal drop across the board, and it was just an inevitability that no one is getting psychology or liberal arts degrees anymore. I could live with that and accept that we lost our identity as "The Humanities School in Montana" through no fault of our own.

But unfortunately the humanities programs in Bozeman are doing just fine. The thousands of liberal arts students didn't just disappear, they just decided to go across the divide, and in their absence we gutted a lot of those same programs.

This is why the whole "we need to get rid of useless degrees" stuff rubs me the wrong way, especially given that something like half of freshman college students either don't know what they want to study, or end up switching majors. You can decry the kid who gave up on law/business/pharmacy/computer science school and instead got a degree in psychology as wasting his time and money, but that's money that goes to the university, and a kid that didn't drop out.

 

[uofmman1122]

a case in point would be universities cutting programs to make room for pharmacy schools, or for dramatically increasing the size of those that already existed, from about 2004 to about 2019. the pharmacy school market very quickly became over-saturated with schools, as did the profession. salaries went down, and jobs, especially those in retail, went down as well. then students started realizing the job wasn't as great as they thought, particularly given the cost of attending in time and money, so student enrollments dropped significantly (60% reduction). lots of pharmacy professors were fired for fiduciary reasons, and many others had to sign 9 month contracts with reduced salaries, but it wasn't a fast process. i have had experience with one that closed last year, after opening in about 2010 and eventually out-performing in the state (maine).

that's all, just wanted to give an example.

This is exactly what's happening with computer science degrees right now. A liberal arts degree is arguably worth more than a CS degree in 2026. Probably doesn't help that companies are gonna use AI to replace all junior devs over the next several years, too.

Edit:
Something I forgot to mention in all this is this idea that these majors/programs/classes just see so few students in them that it's inevitable that they need to be cut, which is also mostly BS.

A major today doesn't have students because UM made the decision to cut classes, electives, sections, adjunct professors, tenured professors, and institutional support for the program over the last 10-15 years. I know a number of language major students not that long ago had all diligently studied for 3+ years, and then found out that they were literally unable to finish their degrees because UM cut all the classes they were required to take in order to finish them. They had to switch majors right before graduation because the cost cutting measures to pay the consultants and admins deleted the opportunity for them to finish. This happened across other departments, as well.

Simply put, the idea that UM just reacted to things outside of their control on all this is nonsense. They didn't originally put themselves in this mess with what happened in 2012, but they certainly made it worse (and still haven't fixed it, since).

 

[SoldierGriz]

I'm gonna put you back so I can catch you later.

I think he is going to do well. We all saw what what's her name did for the neighbors...I think he has the experience to elevate UM substantially.

 

[AZDoc]

the one area that has been growing for a long time now is on-line degree programs being offered by established, traditional universities. and it is growing fast. as a professor i didn't like being a part of on-line classes because i thought the students were missing vital parts of the educational experience, like gaining skills with interacting with others going into the same profession. plus it was more work, less rewarding, and hard to keep students, who bombed professors with emails at all times of day and night, 'happy'.

but it's still growing fast and making money. does anyone here know much about um's online offerings?

I was thinking this exact thing. Why not offer more online degrees? You have the programs, offer classes online. MBA for example...I think UM has an in person with the opportunity to do some work remotely, but there are required in person classes. Plenty of online MBA programs out there. Bones are already in place, just needs some meat.

 

[5280Griz]

I was thinking this exact thing. Why not offer more online degrees? You have the programs, offer classes online. MBA for example...I think UM has an in person with the opportunity to do some work remotely, but there are required in person classes. Plenty of online MBA programs out there. Bones are already in place, just needs some meat.

It’s really limiting for MBA specifically as the students are typically working professionals if it is not offered online.

 

[AZDoc]

It’s really limiting for MBA specifically as the students are typically working professionals if it is not offered online.

Yeah I agree 100%. I am looking at an EMBA and need it to be online. I would've done UM if if was available.

 

[5280Griz]

Yeah I agree 100%. I am looking at an EMBA and need it to be online. I would've done UM if if was available.

I’ve looked into MBA programs some as well. It might not matter as much if you have been out of undergrad for a long time but for someone like me who was in undergrad less than 10 years ago it is better to go somewhere else for grad school for getting more connections and learning from different professors. It also usually helps to get it from a school well known in the area you are living/working.

 

[MissoulaMarinerFan]

@uofmman1122 and @AZDoc - Thanks for the great examples re: pharmacy school etc.

A thing that I think is good for UM is that while enrollment numbers haven’t been on an eye popping upward trajectory, retention rate has been quietly steadily rising the last few years.

Those “repeat consumers” are helpful.

One thing that Shinn brought up when someone suggested “I heard UM was thinking about cutting philosophy” was that maybe if “Philosophy” itself isn’t offered, it is still there, it just looks different.

He did answer somewhat diplomatically with a non answer but I also was under the impression that dropping a major would be the last thing to do when looking at programs.

Will be interesting to see how everything goes!

 

[mthoopsfan]

This is exactly what's happening with computer science degrees right now. A liberal arts degree is arguably worth more than a CS degree in 2026. Probably doesn't help that companies are gonna use AI to replace all junior devs over the next several years, too.

Edit:
Something I forgot to mention in all this is this idea that these majors/programs/classes just see so few students in them that it's inevitable that they need to be cut, which is also mostly BS.

A major today doesn't have students because UM made the decision to cut classes, electives, sections, adjunct professors, tenured professors, and institutional support for the program over the last 10-15 years. I know a number of language major students not that long ago had all diligently studied for 3+ years, and then found out that they were literally unable to finish their degrees because UM cut all the classes they were required to take in order to finish them. They had to switch majors right before graduation because the cost cutting measures to pay the consultants and admins deleted the opportunity for them to finish. This happened across other departments, as well.

Simply put, the idea that UM just reacted to things outside of their control on all this is nonsense. They didn't originally put themselves in this mess with what happened in 2012, but they certainly made it worse (and still haven't fixed it, since).

What's your support or basis for saying this?

"Something I forgot to mention in all this is this idea that these majors/programs/classes just see so few students in them that it's inevitable that they need to be cut, which is also mostly BS."

 

[MissoulaMarinerFan]

I was thinking this exact thing. Why not offer more online degrees? You have the programs, offer classes online. MBA for example...I think UM has an in person with the opportunity to do some work remotely, but there are required in person classes. Plenty of online MBA programs out there. Bones are already in place, just needs some meat.

I think the University is looking at that. I do know a couple potential bottlenecks that slow that down (not saying it stops it, but slows it down):

1. Getting OCHE and BOR approval
2. Getting approval via the NWCCU which is the agency that oversees and verifies higher ed accreditation for programs and colleges
3. Staffing to be able to handle the additional demand - because it is more than just streaming lectures via zoom. There’s setting up the different online learning modules/courses/quizzes and then making sure all those things are accessible (so for example, you can’t just upload a pdf copy of your syllabus - there’s different things that needs to to be made accessible for folks that use screen readers, etc.)

Hopefully they’re looking at getting more online options available for standard higher demand degrees like fully online MBA, etc but I don’t know.

I think as more faculty get used to leveraging AI in the framework for the building of some of the materials, that will speed up their processes.

 

[uofmman1122]

What's your support or basis for saying this?

"Something I forgot to mention in all this is this idea that these majors/programs/classes just see so few students in them that it's inevitable that they need to be cut, which is also mostly BS."

I feel like I lay it out pretty clearly in that post.

Whatever organic losses of students may have occurred at UM since 2012 in these liberal arts and humanities programs, which for decades made up the bulk of UM's surging student population, UM made it worse by consciously and actively cutting critical support that was necessary to maintain student interest in them and instead spent a lot of money that could have kept those programs afloat paying people to simply tell them to gut everything further.

This conversation stemmed from people suggesting we need to "get rid of our useless programs", but we already have been doing that, and it's a big part of how we lost our identity as a university and what got us into this mess to begin with, IMO.

 

[mthoopsfan]

I feel like I lay it out pretty clearly in that post.

Whatever organic losses of students may have occurred at UM since 2012 in these liberal arts and humanities programs, which for decades made up the bulk of UM's surging student population, UM made it worse by consciously and actively cutting critical support that was necessary to maintain student interest in them and instead spent a lot of money that could have kept those programs afloat paying people to simply tell them to gut everything further.

This conversation stemmed from people suggesting we need to "get rid of our useless programs", but we already have been doing that, and it's a big part of how we lost our identity as a university and what got us into this mess to begin with, IMO.

Thanks. I don't know enough to know. However, I still don't know how you know "UM made it worse by ... cutting critical support". I wonder if they made things better or made things worse by doing that. And, I don't know why you think UM "has lost its identity". Has it? If so, how?

 

[MontanaGrizSoccer]

I'll be interested to see that too. He won't be responsible for whatever happens with enrollment this upcoming Fall since he doesn't even start until July, but come Fall of 27, he needs to have an answer for it. One interesting thing to note is that UM's current Enrollment Director, Leslie Webb, came to UM from Boise State and once upon a time actually worked with President Shinn. So they likely know each other well. I'll be interested to see that dynamic in action and how he handles that.

I won't be surprised at all if he overhauls the President's cabinet and brings in a bunch of people from Boise State, including in Athletics. I said this when he got hired, but Boise State I believe is kind of the model child out west for a public state university. My graduation class of only 38 kids had 3 kids go to Boise State for college. They recruit well in MT and all over the west coast. I know a fair amount of kids that went there. I bet he will try to replicate the BSU model as best as he can at UM, which is a good thing.

Boise State Deputy AD is looking for a new job, was a finalist for the University of Toledo AD position.

 

[Berkeley_Griz]

Interesting that many football coaches make more money than a University president. Shows you where the priority of a university is. Also speaks of the quality of candidates a university hires for a president.

What a breath of fresh air to have this completely unique, never-before-spoken perspective shared with us. Truly paradigm-shifting.