Thanks for starting this thread. I was thinking of starting one myself, but am zapped of patience and energy. All courtesy of Christmas shopping in the Denver area. (another reason to miss Montana). Fact is, it will not help me to wait longer, I will be drained no matter what the next week.
As for the team, this is the 1st team in years I actually feel I have an idea of what to expect and I feel has an identity this early in a season. Most years I do not have a comfortable read, good or bad, until February. That alone is a good sign as a fan that likes to analyze and evaluate. They are well ahead of where I expected them to be. I am sure the coaches like that feeling too. It sure reduces the head scratching and mentality.
The team strengths are numerous, and the few concerns are minor in nature compared to many teams (GRIZ and other programs).
DEFENSE is intimidating, versatile, and aware. They play defense together and actually play it so well, watching them play defense is actually fun. It is nice to watch a game anticipating what will Cherry or Qvale do next to impact the game, and how many times will the GRIZ make a game changing play?
I remember an older coaching friend of mine tell me, "A defense has arrived and excellent when you see opponents consistently struggle and get frustrated playing against it." Excellent defenses wear on opponents mentally in time. Opponents force more shots, hang their heads, look worn out, and beat themselves. Excellent defense instills confidence and attitude in that team. We see these things being consistent patterns from our opponents, no matter who the opponents are. Granted, we do have a few individual defensive weaknesses, but they are not exposed often do the excellence of a few players, and discipline of the team. Tinkle has a system and players in place to be versatile and make it hard for teams to find our weak spots. Even our weak areas, are not real weak. This has to be frustrating for coaches to game plan how to beat the GRIZ defense, and even more frustrating for players.
Defensively, we play man, 1-3-1, 2-3, matchup zones for the most part. We even have done well with some traps and presses this year, which is something Tinkle has not ventured to do in the past. Tinkle is more willing to explore and experiment defensively this year, unlike past years. His personnel is allowing for him to be creative, and learn to do more as a coaching staff. As a team, I really do not know what more a coach or fan can ask for from a team? They can do it all, and even at the worse times, GRIZ defense keeps this team in games, and in most games the reason why they win. Call this petty if you like, but for me, it is another sign how good they are defensively. Their is some dropoff of concern when Qvale and/or Cherry are sitting, but still a solid defense. I for one, am hoping Qvale and Cherry both rank in the top 20 nationally come years end, Qvale in blocks, and Cherry in steals. We have never witnessed a defensive combination like these two, and not many programs have, even the elite programs. Enjoy this combination while you can. Defensively alone, is worth the price of admission.
Onto offense, execution has actually been consistent this year. Unfortunately, the results are inconsistent. They are turning the corner with FT shooting, almost to the point where we will compete with most teams in FT shooting, and not cause us games. I still am not sold enough to declare they have over come it yet. Cherry's improvement will continue to be key here. We still need Jamar to become consistent from the line too.
On the other hand, 3 point shooting is as bad as it has ever been for the GRIZ. Our best shooter will not play this year (yes, I am that impressed with the little I seen of Weisner's stroke from the perimeter.) Weisner needs a year to mature and build rest of his game. I am praying we use him as a perimeter player, and not turn him into a paint player, when his time does come. As for those playing this year, we have been spinning our wheels all year on this to date. I like how Jamar is progressing, and have a good feeling he will become a very good perimeter shooter. How soon is the question?
Selvig is consistent, but can get better. No knock on Derek, but he is so valuable closer to the hoop. Right now, I just do not see many more options from 3. Will Cherry has built his perimeter shot to the point of having to respect it, but has a long way to go still. However, with the game on the line, I want the ball in his hands, and have confidence he will come through the majority of time with the game on the line. Adams is supposed to be a deep threat, why are we not using him more? Is he not as ready in rest of his game for us to not use him? Wood is not a bad shooter, to date his results just have not been there. I do see what Tinkle likes in him. He is a solid player. I can see he can score from the perimeter, take the ball to the hole, and even create opportunities for team mates. I can see why Tinkle keeps the faith in him. I just hope that faith pays off sooner than later. It has to be hard to resist giving Autry experience with his potential, or use Steward more at SG. Steward does it all, and always an X factor. He scores, rebounds, defends, and moves better without the ball than any GRIZ. No matter his position, Steward produces and contributes one way or the other.
What still needs to be answered and improved?
(1) Guard depth that can play consistently, beyond Cherry.
(2) Perimeter shooting improvement alone will make this team dominating. Everything else is there.
(3) Another big to defend and score in the paint against bigger opponents. Reader has to get healthy again, and we need to find him minutes to mature. Ward can score and rebound against smaller frontlines, but is not as effective against bigger lines. One suggestion here, bring Ward out of the paint against bigger opponents and let him face up to the basket. He has enough of a perimeter game to be mid range threat. Defensively, have Qvale, Selvig, and Reader worry about defending the paint on inside posts players.
(4) Continue to experiment with traps and pressing defenses a few times each game. I honestly feel we an be a good trapping and pressing team, using them occasionally. Even more if we develop more depth.
As long as Qvale, Selvig, and Cherry stay healthy we will contend for the conference title. As is this is a damn good team. With improved shooting and depth, this team is capable of going 11-5 at worse in conference play. Realistically, I see a 12-4, maybe 13-3. Unless a team is absolutely on fire offensively, I do not see us ever getting blown out in conference play.
I have that much confidence in Tinkle, our defense, Qvale and Cherry. No let downs this year as long as they stay healthy.
