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A Bracket Projection I hope is wrong

TrueGriz

TrueGriz

Well-known member
Was looking at www.collegerpi.com for RPI rankings and bracket projections and became quite dismayed. The Big Sky Conference really sucks this year.

Big Sky teams are ranked so low on collegerpi.com that any win from now on does not mean you will improve in RPI. It actually means that you will not fall as fast. But a loss means big drop unless it is to a conference leader.

The rpi rankings I am viewing was from early this past week so does not include the WSU and ISU games for the Griz. But, as of Jan. 30th, were ranked 190, PSU 191.

Now, to the bracket projection. collegerpi projected PSU to be in the NCAA tournament as the possible 16th seed. Possible, meaning that they beat Mississippi Valley State in the play-in game. It isn't the fact that PSU is projected to be the Big Sky entry into the NCAA tournament. It is the fact that collegerpi.com is projecting the Big Sky Conference entry to be in the play-in game.

Luckily, collegerpi hasn't been fully reliable in predicting NCAA tournaments. Haven't been far off, though.

Now, women's Big Sky Conference is quite a bit more respectable, and Lady Griz have been climbing the RPI rankings. Lady Griz are projected as a 12th seed going against Texas in Fresno, CA.
 
If the BSC has to play the play-in game thats fine......if they really deserve to be in the tourney earn it........no offense but the BSC should be used to the 13-16 seeds......sometimes there will be an upset or two but when it comes down to it it will always be the major conferences in there.
 
The Big Sky is brutal this year. I still really enjoy going to the games this year but there is no team in the league this year that even has a chance of making any noise.

The league is truly a "I-AA" basketball league. There is no way that you could call the Big Sky a mid major.
 
It seems like there is usually an upset in the conference tournaments that will produce one of the pay-in teams, and another from a really bad D-1 conference. I would be surprised if PSU, Montana or Montana State had to be in the play-in game.
 
The Big Sky representative will not have to play the play in game. The upset of Weber State over North Carolina is fresh in selection committees minds. The only way would be if a the representative was ISU or a sub 500 team. Historically that ussually are the teams in the playin.

The league will get a 15 or 16th seed. I hope the Big Sky team will not have to play North Carolina because "UNC would win by 40.
 
milehighgriz said:
The Big Sky representative will not have to play the play in game. The upset of Weber State over North Carolina is fresh in selection committees minds. The only way would be if a the representative was ISU or a sub 500 team. Historically that ussually are the teams in the playin.

The league will get a 15 or 16th seed. I hope the Big Sky team will not have to play North Carolina because "UNC would win by 40.
Click to expand...

That was quite sometime ago. Big Sky has been getting worse each year. What is happening now is quite a bit more fresher in the minds than Weber State win over North Carolina.

And what has been happening in the past is not necessary what is going to happen this year and in the future if the Big Sky keeps getting weaker.

In addition, EWU wasn't that far from being a 16th seed last year.
 
The Weber State North Carolina upset was only 6 years ago. I do agree the conference has gotten worst lately. Committee members know the conference is capable of upset.
 
milehighgriz said:
The Weber State North Carolina upset was only 6 years ago. I do agree the conference has gotten worst lately. Committee members know the conference is capable of upset.
Click to expand...

Yes, but seeding is done more with the computer. What happened 6 years ago isn't programmed into the computer to determine seedings. In fact, computer is used to determine tie breakers in this conference when on other tie break situations are exhausted.

What the computer spits out is the RPI. And the conference RPI is very low. The fact that there are only 2 teams with an RPI ranked higher than 200 is a concern. The higher the RPI, the higher the seed a team can get. There is less human influence in determining seeds, but there may be some.

Big Sky teams beating on each other is not going to help.

What will really help is the 3 Big Schools that are participating in the ESPN Bracket Buster (Weber State, NAU, and PSU) win. Especially if PSU wins. PSU will be playing somebody higher (Middle Tennesee state on the road) than them in RPI ranking (based on collegerpi.com as of 1/30/2005), so a win will help PSU rise up in RPI rankings and reduce the chances of being forced into that playin game.

Anyway, short of it, things are going to change by time the season is over. The actuall RPI rankings are never known to anybody but the NCAA tournament committee. There are just sites that try to imitate the RPI formula.
 
:o :o Griz will go in as #64 and play Illinois who will be overall #1. This will be a pretty good draw considering. A victory in this first game would hi-jack the #1 seeds bracketing and it would be smooth sailing until the next game. :o :o
 
I've said this before;

If a Big Sky team has to play the game to determine the 64th seed there is one good thing about that.

They'll be on ESPN or ESPN 2, and they'll be the only college basketball game that night, so whoever is playing in it will get watched by a national audience.

Whoever makes it (I'm hoping the Griz do) will get some good exposure in that game, on their way to have Illinois or N. Carolina beat the living crap out of them two days later.
 
The BSC will get a 13-15 seed depending on how many upsets there are in Conference Tourneys. That's the way it is every year except for when somebody goes undefeated in conference (WSU a couple years ago).

Right now PSU is predicted a 15. The only way a BSC team will be a 16 is if they have lower than a .500 record. Montana got a 15 seed 3 years ago with a .500 record.
 
Montana Gym Rat said:
The BSC will get a 13-15 seed depending on how many upsets there are in Conference Tourneys. That's the way it is every year except for when somebody goes undefeated in conference (WSU a couple years ago).

Right now PSU is predicted a 15. The only way a BSC team will be a 16 is if they have lower than a .500 record. Montana got a 15 seed 3 years ago with a .500 record.
Click to expand...

Don't say every year, because Montana was 16th seed back in 1997.

Also, Eastern was 15th seed last year, and that is about as high a seed you will see a Big Sky team get this year.

Plus, just when everybody expects something because that is how it always has been done, something happens that surprises or dismays them. Unfortunately, I do not see anything happening that would surprise me this year.

Anyway, I would really like to see the Big Sky team get 16th seed just so they can beat the number 1 seed.

What would really make a great cinderella story is Montana getting the play-in game, win, then beat the 1 seed, and then to top it off get to the sweet 16 with a win in the second round. That would be awesome. :D
Of course, it would be nice cinderella story for a 15th seed to make it to sweet 16, but certainly not as good as the play-in team getting to the sweet 16 and then going on to the final 4 and then winning it all. :D :D
 
Montana Gym Rat said:
....
Right now PSU is predicted a 15. The only way a BSC team will be a 16 is if they have lower than a .500 record. Montana got a 15 seed 3 years ago with a .500 record.
Click to expand...

Also, who is making that prediction? Is he any more valid than anybody else?
 
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