7 Seeds are Favored of #2 Seeds?

[GrizRick]

I found this on the Furman Paladin board https://gopaladins.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4322&sid=5e5f776cc6cae485298db2beb4f8956d. If both the Griz and Furman win this weekend, #7 seed Furman will be coming here the following week. It appears the #7 seed has a winning record against the #2 seed.

PART 1
In the 9 prior Playoffs that have utilized the 24 Team / 8 Seeds (with home games AND 1 week rests prior), the record of #1 Seeds vs. Unseeded Opponents is:

#1 Seeds = 9 WINS
Unseeded = 9 L's

The Average Score in these matchups has been #1 Seed ~42 - Unseeded Team ~16; a margin of victory of ~26 points.

In the 9 #1 Seed Wins, only 2 times has the margin of victory been less than double digits. In 2021, unseeded Incarnate Word (Southland) lost to #1 Seed Sam Houston State (WAC) by a TD 49-42. In 2015, unseeded Chattanooga (SoCon) almost pulled the upset, before falling 41-35 to Jacksonville State (OVC).

PART II
If you are ONLY betting on Part II of those stated conditions, the odds, as are Katniss Everdeen's, are much more in your favor...

#7 Seeds actually have a WINNING record (4-3) over #2 Seeds in this structure.

NDSU (MVFC) is responsible for all of the #2 Seed over #7 Seed Wins. It seems Bison are like 3 or 4 year locusts invading the South (except they were always Home...of course) ... 2014 - 39-32 over Coastal Carolina (Big South), 2017 - 42-10 over Wofford (SoCon), and 2021 - 27-3 over ETSU (SoCon).

#7 Seeds out of the CAA are responsible for 3 of the 4 upsets over #2 Seeds. In 2013, Towson (CAA) beat Eastern Illinois (OVC) 49-39. In 2015, Richmond (CAA) defeated Illinois State (MVFC) 39-27, and in 2018, Maine (CAA) bested Weber State (Big Sky) 23-18. Our good friends from Incarnate Word (Southland), in 2022, are responsible for getting that 4-3 edge as they edged out Sacramento State (Big Sky) in a defensive struggle 66-63.

So...if Montana gets by Delaware and we whip Chatt, as planned, history is on our side.

 

[ilovethecats]

You guys will destroy Furman

 

[uofmman1122]

I found this on the Furman Paladin board https://gopaladins.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=4322&sid=5e5f776cc6cae485298db2beb4f8956d. If both the Griz and Furman win this weekend, #7 seed Furman will be coming here the following week. It appears the #7 seed has a winning record against the #2 seed.

PART 1
In the 9 prior Playoffs that have utilized the 24 Team / 8 Seeds (with home games AND 1 week rests prior), the record of #1 Seeds vs. Unseeded Opponents is:

#1 Seeds = 9 WINS
Unseeded = 9 L's

The Average Score in these matchups has been #1 Seed ~42 - Unseeded Team ~16; a margin of victory of ~26 points.

In the 9 #1 Seed Wins, only 2 times has the margin of victory been less than double digits. In 2021, unseeded Incarnate Word (Southland) lost to #1 Seed Sam Houston State (WAC) by a TD 49-42. In 2015, unseeded Chattanooga (SoCon) almost pulled the upset, before falling 41-35 to Jacksonville State (OVC).

PART II
If you are ONLY betting on Part II of those stated conditions, the odds, as are Katniss Everdeen's, are much more in your favor...

#7 Seeds actually have a WINNING record (4-3) over #2 Seeds in this structure.

NDSU (MVFC) is responsible for all of the #2 Seed over #7 Seed Wins. It seems Bison are like 3 or 4 year locusts invading the South (except they were always Home...of course) ... 2014 - 39-32 over Coastal Carolina (Big South), 2017 - 42-10 over Wofford (SoCon), and 2021 - 27-3 over ETSU (SoCon).

#7 Seeds out of the CAA are responsible for 3 of the 4 upsets over #2 Seeds. In 2013, Towson (CAA) beat Eastern Illinois (OVC) 49-39. In 2015, Richmond (CAA) defeated Illinois State (MVFC) 39-27, and in 2018, Maine (CAA) bested Weber State (Big Sky) 23-18. Our good friends from Incarnate Word (Southland), in 2022, are responsible for getting that 4-3 edge as they edged out Sacramento State (Big Sky) in a defensive struggle 66-63.

So...if Montana gets by Delaware and we whip Chatt, as planned, history is on our side.

This is the same guy who whines and cries on AGS whenever someone suggests past playoff results can be used as predictors of future matchups when it comes to why the Big Sky and MVFC should get more seeds. :lol:

We are undefeated at home in the quarterfinals, which has a lot more to do with how that game might go than what happened at Eastern Illinois in 2013.

Let's get past the Hens tomorrow first, though.

 

[Proud Griz Man]

So, lets ignore coincidental items & focus on recent facts; they went to Wofford and lost. That is directly relevant, because Furman might beat Chatt at home but will have a huge challenge in traveling to Western MT and playing the Griz.

Yeah, back in history Julia Roberts married Lyle Lovett, and Diana Spencer married ugly King Charles III. Rarities.

I found this on the Furman Paladin board

#7 Seeds actually have a WINNING record (4-3) over #2 Seeds in this structure.

So...if Montana gets by Delaware and we whip Chatt, as planned, history is on our side.

[/quote]

SPARTANBURG, S.C. – Wofford took advantage of two second-half turnovers by Furman to build a 19-6 lead and held on to upset the second-ranked Paladins, 19-13, in the regular season finale for both teams on Saturday afternoon at Gibbs Stadium in Spartanburg, S.C. The loss halts Furman's overall and Southern Conference road winning streaks at eight games, as well as the Paladins' 13-game league winning streak. The 24-team 2023 NCAA Division I Football Championship field will be announced at 12:30 p.m. ET Sunday on ESPNU. Wofford (2-9, 2-6 SoCon) took the lead with 5:09 left in the first half when Ryan Ingram broke free up the middle on a fourth-and-one play and sprinted 53 yards for a touchdown to give the Terriers a 10-6 advantage. Furman (9-2, 7-1) drove into Wofford territory on its opening possession of the second half, but on fourth-and-one at the Terriers' 33-yardline the Paladins fumbled the handoff and Maximus Pulley scooped up the fumble and raced 64 yards to up the lead to 16-6.

 

[bgbigdog]

No shit talking the next team until after 10:30 Saturday night. Can we agree on that?

 

[Stop_HammerTime69]

It's a fun pattern but ultimately it kinda means nothing. Hoping the Griz buck it.

Like one of my friends said a few years back during one of the dark years that "UM was due for a win over the cats because of how 2018 went down and the underdog has won on the road a lot." As if that made a lick of difference.

I love talking about the history of the sport but if you're going to use history to inform how you make predictions you gotta sort out the feel good bullsh*t for the underdogs and be a bit more cynical about how things like talent acquisition, coaching stability, scheme, and player development factor in.

 

[DoubleNicks]

Man, when the OP mentioned Jacksonville State as the #1 back in 2015, I had to look it up. I knew JSU had a couple of good years but an OVC as #1? Montana lost early (2nd round @NDSU) so I didn't really follow/remember too much about that year.
Yuck, look at that field (Montana, #6 PSU, and SUU repping the BSC...UM with the conference's only win) uke:
https://www.ncaa.com/brackets/football/fcs/2015