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1/4/12 Power Rankings (WBB)

B

bigskywbb

Member
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After the first weekend of Big Sky conference play, I am hesitant to make drastic changes to who I think are the best teams in the Big Sky. Montana State and Idaho State remain in the top spots as the teams with the best inside/outside balance along with some hint of consistency. Road wins are extremely valuable in the Big Sky and MSU (over PSU) and UM(over EWU) both picked up big road wins. Outside of those games, home teams stood firm.

Score in parenthesis is a conference power score (+2 for road win, +1 for home win, -1 for home loss)

1 - Montana State (+2) - 20+ turnovers on the road usually equals a 20 point blowout. The Cats were fortunate to be in the game down the stretch at Eastern Washington, but there is no overcoming giving your opponent that many more possessions. MSU bounced back very well winning at Portland State in impressive fashion.

2 - Idaho State (+1) - I still like their balance, but I also think that a team needs a "go-to" presence. Who will it be for Idaho State? If they can get a split on the MSU/UM road trip, they will be well on their way to being an elite Big Sky team this year.

3 - Northern Colorado (+1) - The Bears have been a bit under the radar during the non conference season, but they are one of 3 teams with 9 wins right now and the only team other than MSU with more than 2 road wins. UNCO has the most dynamic talent in D'Shara Strange and a strong inside presence with Oosdyke and Lockridge.

4 - Montana (+2) - They still can't shoot, but wow they can defend and make the game ugly. If Selvig can dictate tempo and keep games under 60 points, the Lady Griz will be hard to beat. If they can't control the tempo and have to play a game in the 70s, it will be difficult for Montana to be successful. Either way, this is a very similar team to last year's team that played defense and rebounded their way to a Big Sky Tournament Championship.

5 - Portland State (-1) - I mentioned it in every poll... The Viks have no post presence and will struggle with teams that do (MSU, ISU, UNC, UM). Kate Lanz is a force and may be a first team All Conference player, but will it be enough against more balanced teams?

6 - Eastern Washington (0) - A home win and a home loss tells us what we already know about Eastern Washington. They are terribly inconsistent. Brianne Ryan may be considered an MVP front runner, but the Eagles will need to be more consistent as the season moves on for Ryan to achieve the individual awards.

7 - Sac State (+2) - Sac is leading the Big Sky right now at 2-0, but two home wins against NAU and Weber State are to be expected. Sac is definitely improved, but I don't think they are close to the same class as the top 6 teams. (0-6 on the road)

8 - Northern Arizona (0) - Two road losses is par for the course. It doesn't get much easier at home this week as they take on EWU and PSU. (0-8 on the road)

9 - Weber State (0) - The Cats played Sac tough for 35 minutes but couldn't break through on the road. This is a team that will continue to get better as the season carries on and will be a team to not overlook come second round of conference. (0-7 on the road)
 
Idaho State is really a mystery this year. They have shot under 32 percent in 7 of their 14 games so far, and Vella and Oakes are shooting way below their career averages. Pickering missed 7games with a knee injury. She's back in the starting lineup, but really struggled Monday night against UNC. The Bengals are near the top of the league in nearly every defensive category -- and near the bottom in nearly every offensive category. It will be interesting to see if they can find some offensive consistency. They are 25-5 at home over the last two years -- but can they score enough to get the road breakthroughs you need to compete for a championship?
 
I will play here are some other opinions as of 12:00 Noon on 1/4/12, and yes this turned out to be longer than I expected.

RPI (Realtime RPI)
1. ISU (93), 2. MSU (132), 3. EWU (158), 4. No. Col. (175), 5. PSU (179), 6. UM (201), 7. NAU (258), 8. Sac St (272), 9 Weber (331)

LadyGrizBasketball.com (Bill Speltz of the Missoulian)
1. UM, 2 ISU, 3 MSU, 4 PSU, 5 EWU, 6 Sac St. 7 No. Col., 8 NAU, 9 Weber

Mslacat's (that would be ME)
1 MSU
Those who want to accuse me of being bias fine, (but come on Speltz). MSU had the best preseason record with some nice road wins. They have two player capable of winning the league MVP and two other who can score 20 points on a given night. Shooting guard Katie Bussey is leading the team and assist (both 3rd best marks in conference) even if you can defender he well she will find the open player. Post player Rachel Smansky is 5th in scoring and 3rd in rebounding and then add in Ashley Albert (10th pts, 9th rbs) and Chelsea Banis and they have a lot of options. The point guard spot is their biggest weakness. Starter Adams is not a natural point and can be forced into turning it over. EWU took advantage of that in last week's game. As a pure point guard Cole is much better suited than Adams but not much of an offensive threat, but Binford seems to like to bring her off the bench.
2 ISU
I almost listed MSU as 1a and ISU 1b but I thought that would be lame. I like ISU a lot. They showed last year they were a team to be reckoned with and I think they are only going to get better. This week-end as the travel to MSU and UM we are going to find out a lot about the conference. I think ISU is a very good team but are only going to get better.
3 PSU
I like the personnel PSU has some of the best talent in the conference, but has been pointed out, they do not have a very imposing interior presence. This could be a problem on the road and against the bigger teams like Montana and Montana State.
4 UM,
I have been saying this for 10 year, UM is built for the Big Sky Conference period. They are not designed for the non-conference or post season (NCAA Tourney) if they do well there fine, but they are designed to win the Big Sky. There non-Conference results were not that impressive but they will compete to host the tourney in 2011-12. They are an odd team made up of primarily a bunch of 6-0ish power forwards types spread across the roster. With the exception of Torry Hill they are a horrendous shooting team, but make up for it by playing tenacious /stifling defense. Tempo will be important to the Lady Griz. If they can keep the game in the 50's they have a great chance of winning. If it gets in the 70's they could be in trouble. They have the best home court advantage in the conference which is another plus for them. One dimensional team will have a difficult time dealing with Selvig's smothering defense. Selvig will have difficulty against teams who can spread the floor and score inside and out.
5 EWU
EWU burned me last year and I do not know what to think of them this year. I had them higher last week but dropped them after last week's games. They are very athletic and get after it. They have proven they can put up a bunch of points in a hurry, but they have also proven they can be incredibly inconsistent. It is a crap shoot on any given night which team will show up.
6 N. Col.
I am a little disappointed in Northern Colorado. I really thought they were going to be better than this, and they still might. If one or more of the top 5 team falters they could primed to prove me wrong here.
7 Sac St,
After last week end is Sac State ready to make a move? I am real curious to see how they do this week.
8 NAU
Looks like a tough year for NAU
9 Weber
Weber looks to be a program on the rise, but unfortunately for there die hard fans it might not be this year. Weber has a couple talented young players and the best recruit so far in the 2012 class. They could be jump up and steal a game or two this year, but look out in the next couple years look for there talent level to increase dramatically.
 
Mslacat said:
LadyGrizBasketball.com (Bill Speltz of the Missoulian)
1. UM, 2 ISU, 3 MSU, 4 PSU, 5 EWU, 6 Sac St. 7 No. Col., 8 NAU, 9 Weber

Mslacat's (that would be ME)
1 MSU
Those who want to accuse me of being bias fine, (but come on Speltz).
Click to expand...


I'd love for Speltz to be right, but I'm with Mslacat -- C'mon, man!!! :lol: :lol:

I'm with those who think MSU and ISU are the teams to beat and that Sac State, NAU and Weber will struggle. After that, I think the 3,4, and 5 spots are a toss-up, although I'd probably put UM above PSU because of UM's slight size advantage and its strong defense. That leaves EWU at 6 on my list by default.

So, here's my guess:

1. MSU
2. ISU
3. UM
4. N Col
5. PSU
6. EWU
7. Sac St
8. NAU
9. Weber

I am putting UM at number 3 because I'm seeing some gradual improvement which I am hoping will continue -- and that is definitely a reflection of my bias!! :P

Go Lady Griz!! Get after ISU on Saturday and turn this list on its head!!
 
Well, to be fair to Speltz, I think his power rankings are for a single point in time, not necessarily how he expects the teams to finish. A road win at Eastern and a 4 game win streak would have to put the LG close to the top in any rankings for today. Does he expect them to finish there? Probably not.
 
EverettGriz said:
Well, to be fair to Speltz, I think his power rankings are for a single point in time, not necessarily how he expects the teams to finish. A road win at Eastern and a 4 game win streak would have to put the LG close to the top in any rankings for today. Does he expect them to finish there? Probably not.
Click to expand...

That's a fair point - I think the ISU game this weekend will tell us a lot about this team.
 
Defense wins championships! The Lady Griz play defense! That will keep them in the race to the end and I actually like their chances come tournament time.
 
Selvig could outcoach Binford in his sleep, which is why Speltz is not picking your team mslacat. The same is true in Men's , HUSE sucks and his players don't like him. Why do you think Sprinkle left?
 
EverettGriz said:
cclarkblues said:
A couple of blown uncontested layups could have made the difference.
Click to expand...


Geeez, they missed like 6 of em.
Click to expand...

I was trying to watch both the Lady Griz and the FCS Championship. Seems to me that even a poor shooting team (as they referred to them many times) should make uncontested layups. They had great ball movement to get the player into prime position and they would miss the bunny.
 
I took Jud Heathcote's "Coaching Basketball" class (long ago) and he repeatedly referred to the layup as "a 90-percent shot," claiming that -- as-sure-a-thing as it seemed -- it was never a guaranteed shot.

That said, I think the Lady Griz shot their layups at about a 40 percent clip last night.
 
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