Upset Guesses (Sept 29-Oct 2)

Seems like there are enough FCS-FCS matchups to start this up again, although only enough to allow one vote. Recall that I do not include Big Sky games, since people vote their pet likes or hates rather than really considering where an upset might be plausible. You are allowed to change your vote later if you want to.

BTW: You probably figured it out, but the teams on the right are the "favorites," whether they are at home or not.

Official verification: Bobcats suck!

Commentary
Despite other opinions ( ), the headliner for the week has to be Elon hosting Richmond game, that is, the only game where ranked teams match up. One can argue that Elon has succeeded against a slightly tougher schedule, having won against William & Mary, while Richmond has not faced a ranked team. (Both lost to an FBS opponent.) On the other hand, Elon’s offense is heavily run dependent while Richmond is in the top quarter in run defense.

Figured I should have at least one Ivy in among the choices, and this one features two undefeated teams. I’ve listed Columbia as the “favorite” simply because they’re the home team. Sagarin has this as a virtual tie.

The game at North Dakota may answer the question: Does Missouri State deserve their top-10 ranking? Looking “under the hood,” the two teams have quite similar records. Each lost to an FBS opponent and a ranked FCS team. Their two wins were against decent opponents … one ranked, one not. Home field could be the decider here. (FWIW: Haley picks MSU.)

The Samford-Furman matchup looks like another that could be decided by the home field advantage. They have had comparable records so far, with wins over decent opponents, and their only losses to ranked FBS teams.

On the records, the Towson-Delaware game looks like a mismatch … and it may well be. However, we’re approaching the time in the season when Delaware – after starting like a ball of fire – manages to lay an egg. Could this be it?

With the Salukis on the road at Illinois State, we might find out if SIU is getting too much credit for their upset of FBS Northwestern. Illinois State seems to be a solid team … this could be yet another game where home field advantage is in play.

Going with Furman.

kurtismichael said:

Going with Furman.

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Thought a lot about them. Could change my vote if I get a chance for some more research.

IdaGriz01 said:

kurtismichael said:

Going with Furman.

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Thought a lot about them. Could change my vote if I get a chance for some more research.

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I think I picked them because in my head they are still a good team. Let’s call it left over thoughts from the 2001 national championship game. lol.
Maybe they are good though, suppose this game will help answer that question.

kurtismichael said:

IdaGriz01 said:

Thought a lot about them. Could change my vote if I get a chance for some more research.

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I think I picked them because in my head they are still a good team. Let’s call it left over thoughts from the 2001 national championship game. lol.
Maybe they are good though, suppose this game will help answer that question.

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Lots of people agree. They've been getting votes since the beginning, and have been just out of the top-25 for the past couple of weeks.

ND over Miss St

IdaGriz01 said:

...
The game at North Dakota may answer the question: Does Missouri State deserve their top-10 ranking? Looking “under the hood,” the two teams have quite similar records. Each lost to an FBS opponent and a ranked FCS team. Their two wins were against decent opponents … one ranked, one not. Home field could be the decider here. (FWIW: Haley picks MSU.)
...

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Just highlighted through our record of the Missouri State loss to SDSU. Except for a couple of flash plays (SDSU defensive breakdowns) by MSU in the 3rd quarter, SDSU absolutely dominated that game. They were not my pick, but I'm now more inclined to think that North Dakota can pull off the upset at home.

kurtismichael said:

Going with Furman.

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Same

I don't know how a even-line meaningless Ivy League game between two 2-0 teams can qualify as an "upset", but I do appreciate the effort to do this.

Zirg said:

I don't know how a even-line meaningless Ivy League game between two 2-0 teams can qualify as an "upset", but I do appreciate the effort to do this.

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Yeah, I should have probably taken a pass on that one.

So far: One actual upset ... #7 Missouri State lost decisively (48-31) to unranked North Dakota. Likely to be a major bkow to their ranking.

Griz Addict said:

ND over Miss St

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Called it :thumb:

Griz Addict said:

Griz Addict said:

ND over Miss St

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Called it :thumb:

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#23 Elon over #17 Richmond, 30-27 2OT

Called it :thumb: (But way to close for comfort )

Win is a win. 2 weeks to get it figured out.

Oops. Wrong thread. Sorry that game got me into the beer fridge hard.