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MBBALL Big Sky Progress (End-Game)

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
The way the standings have tightened up, I decided to post all the games left at this point. With so many teams bunched close together, we could see even more big swings.

Portland State (12-3) @ MSU … @ UM … WSU
Montana State (9-6) … PSU … Sac State … @ NAU
Eastern Wash (9-6) … NoColo … NAU … Idaho
Weber State (9-7) … bye … @ ISU … @ PSU
Montana (8-7) … Sac State … PSU … @ NoColo
No Colorado (8-7) @ EWU … @ Idaho … UM
Idaho (7-8) … NAU … NoColo … @ EWU
Sac State (5-10) @ UM … @ MSU … ISU
Idaho State (5-11) … bye … WSU … @ Sac State
No Arizona (4-11) @ Idaho … @ EWU … MSU

Let’s start at the bottom. NAU has not been hot and they have two on the road. Their final outcome is, at best, 1-2, which puts them nowhere. ISU got hot against the Montana teams, but they have only two games to gain ground. Even with very unlikely sweep, they’d still be pretty far back.

Sac State seems to be in free fall, having lost a long string of games. I do not see that changing, so they’re not going anywhere. Idaho presents an interesting case. They have won only two games of the last six. From here, they face two of the hottest teams in Sky – one at home and one on the road. I do not see them gaining much ground.

With the bottom out of the way, let’s go up, starting with the most fascinating case: Northern Colorado. They have been super-hot, like the team many on here thought they could be all along. Thus, we must assume they will remain hot, even though they have two games on the road. I could easily see them end up at 10-8 or even 11-7. That could be in shouting distance of a 2-seed.

I’ll defer on the Griz and go up some more. Weber looked unbeatable against the Griz, but now they must go on the road … where I see at best a split. Eastern Washington is another team that has gotten hot lately, and they finish their season at home … with one against equally-hot Northern Colorado. But even with that obstacle, the Eagles could easily go 2-1 and end up at 11-7

The kitties get Portland State at home and face two weak opponents, one on the road. But they have now lost two in a row. I see a 2-1 split as a most likely finish. Thus, we could see a bunch of teams at 11-7, hoping for a favorable tie-breaker for the 2-seed. Unless one of those possible 11-7 projection somehow turn into a 12-6, Portland State already has enough wins to get the 1-seed. I’ll leave it at that.

I simply don’t know what to say about UM going down to the end. They have two decent chances to turn it around at home. I cannot say I’m highly confident on that. Also, they would need a sweep the rest of the way to slide into the 11-7 bunch.
 
Got to wondering who might have it toughest or easiest the rest of the way. Although the Griz have two home games, they face opponents with a cumulative conference record of 25-20 … call that semi-tough. Northern Arizona would seem to have the next toughest. They too face opponents who are 25-20, but two of those are on the road. Good luck with that!

Coincidentally, Portland State probably has the toughest ahead: Their opponents are 26-20 and two of those are road games.

Surely Eastern Washington has the easiest closing schedule: cumulative record of 19-26 and all at home. As hot as the Eagles have become, I could easily seem them sweep all three.
 
Got to wondering who might have it toughest or easiest the rest of the way. Although the Griz have two home games, they face opponents with a cumulative conference record of 25-20 … call that semi-tough. Northern Arizona would seem to have the next toughest. They too face opponents who are 25-20, but two of those are on the road. Good luck with that!

Coincidentally, Portland State probably has the toughest ahead: Their opponents are 26-20 and two of those are road games.

Surely Eastern Washington has the easiest closing schedule: cumulative record of 19-26 and all at home. As hot as the Eagles have become, I could easily seem them sweep all three.
Well, Somebody's streak is going to end. Either Northern Colorado's 7 game win streak or EWU's 6 game win streak.

And which losing streak is going to end. Sac States 5 game losing streak or Montana's 3 game win streak.

I guess you can favor the odds towards the home team.
 
Thursday games, all scheduled at 7 o’clock.

Portland State (12-3) @ MSU (9-6)
Sac State (5-10) @ UM (8-7)
No Arizona (4-11) @ Idaho (7-8)
No Colorado (8-7) @ EWU (9-6)

GO GRIZ!
 
Every home team won (including the Griz, obviously).

Everybody plays in the next two slots, so there's plenty of movement still possible.
 
Down to crunch time, for sure. There’s some interesting drama at the top because PSU faces opponents with a cumulative record of 18-14, one game on the road. Meanwhile, the teams just behind them (MSU and EWU) have much softer looking schedules (9-23, 12-20). Since the Eagles are at home, I’m thinking they have a decent chance for a sweep. Although unlikely, a three-way tie at 12-6 is not out of the question.

The Griz face a pretty tough schedule (20-12, home and away), so the best we can probably hope for is a split. Not a disaster, but not great. A tie for second is not out of the question, but seems unlikely. At least they’re safely out of the bottom-four. Sad that we’re down to this, but “it is what it is.”

We might spare a moment of sympathy for Northern Arizona. Their two opponents, one road, one home, have a cumulative 20-12 record.

Portland State (12-4) @ UM … WSU
Montana State (10-6) … Sac State … @ NAU
Eastern Wash (10-6) … NAU … Idaho
Montana (9-7) … PSU … @ NoColo
Weber State (9-7) @ ISU … @ PSU
No Colorado (8-8) @ Idaho … UM
Idaho (8-8) … NoColo … @ EWU
Idaho State (5-11) … WSU … @ Sac State
Sac State (5-11) @ MSU … ISU
No Arizona (4-12) @ EWU … MSU
 
Games for Saturday (streaming only, nothing televised)

Sac State (5-11) @ MSU (10-6) … 1:00
Portland State (12-4) @ UM (9-7) … 2:00
No Colorado (8-8) @ Idaho (8-8) … 2:00
No Arizona (4-12) @ EWU (10-6) … 2:00
Weber State (9-7) @ ISU (5-11) … 4:00
 
A lot of interesting tiebreaker scenarios at play going into the final games on Monday. Here's my analysis of where the Griz currently stand:

  • If PSU beats Weber on Monday and wins the outright regular season title, then UM is locked in as the 4 seed regardless of results of other games.
  • If UM beats UNC on Monday and Weber beats PSU then UM is the 5 seed.
  • If UNC beats UM and Weber beats PSU then it gets very interesting. In a 3-way tie between PSU, MSU, and EWU I believe the seeds would break out as #1 MSU, #2 EWU, and #3 PSU. UNC would then win the tiebreaker over UM for the #5 seed due to their 1-1 record against EWU. I haven't worked out the potential 2-way tie scenarios if PSU loses and only one of MSU and EWU wins on Monday.
 
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Any team, except NAU have a chance to win Big Sky Conference tournament this year. There's no sure fire dominant team.
 
As noted by MSU01, there are many ways the Sky could go based on the combination of results on Monday. Many end up dependent upon tie-breakers. To me, the most interesting for the Griz assumes that UM wins and both MSU and EWU lose. Unlikely to go just that way? Sure, but not at all impossible. Anyway, that would leave UM, MSU, and EWU tied at 11-7. Add in Weber if they win at PSU (again, not at all impossible), and you have an even bigger mess (love it!).

Portland State (12-5) … WSU
Montana State (11-6) @ NAU
Eastern Wash (11-6) … Idaho
Montana (10-7) @ NoColo
Weber State (10-7) @ PSU
No Colorado (9-8) … UM
Idaho (8-9) @ EWU
Idaho State (5-12) @ Sac State
Sac State (5-12) … ISU
No Arizona (4-13) … MSU
 
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Monday’s games:
Montana State (11-6) @ NAU (4-13) … 6:00
Montana (10-7) @ NoColo (9-8) … 6:00
Idaho (8-9) @ EWU (11-6) … 7:00
Weber State (10-7) @ PSU (12-5) … 8:00
Idaho State (5-12) @ Sac State (5-12) … 8:00

Don’t lock in too tight on the game times. ESPN has sometimes changed those between Sunday and game day (seems unlikely in this case, but there it is).
 
As noted by MSU01, there are many ways the Sky could go based on the combination of results on Monday. Many end up dependent upon tie-breakers. To me, the most interesting for the Griz assumes that UM wins and both MSU and EWU lose. Unlikely to go just that way? Sure, but not at all impossible. Anyway, that would leave UM, MSU, and EWU tied at 11-7. Add in Weber if they win at PSU (again, not at all impossible), and you have an even bigger mess (love it!).

Portland State (12-5) … WSU
Montana State (11-6) @ NAU
Eastern Wash (11-6) … Idaho
Montana (10-7) @ NoColo
Weber State (10-7) @ PSU
No Colorado (9-8) … UM
Idaho (8-9) @ EWU
Idaho State (5-12) @ Sac State
Sac State (5-12) … ISU
No Arizona (4-13) … MSU
Product of mediocrity. Don't love it.
 
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