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Big Sky / Missouri Valley / UAC playoff picture in the final week

BWahlberg

BWahlberg

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Expanded to add the UAC to look at who is in and who needs help.

open.substack.com

The FCS Playoff picture out west

Last week of the year (regular season), can't hold anything back now
open.substack.com open.substack.com

The last few weeks we’ve been taking a look at the road to the playoffs for teams in the Big Sky and the MVFC - I’ll expand this look a little further here to a few other conferences as well but let’s start at home. For some teams Saturday could be their last game of the year - for others it’s positioning in the playoffs.

YARN | Last game of the year Brent Can't hold anything back now | The Waterboy (1998) | Video gifs by quotes | f9f95fbf | 紗
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Brint-
Good job outlining the playoff picture in these conferences.
I would still argue a 1 loss Tarlenton State (to ACU) should not rank higher than a 1 loss Griz team (should they lose to the cats). The Army win has not aged all that well. They played absolutely no one good other than ACU after that.
Sure hope it does not matter in the end as the Griz win the Big Sky Saturday.
I agree that the Cats could drop to 5th or 6th with a loss. Should be 5th as there just are not any other teams with a resume to pass them even at 9-3. (Tennessee Tech? MERCER?)
I see it playing out:
NDSU
Griz
Lehigh
Tarlenton
Probably Cats

Go Griz!
 
GottaluvGriz said:
Brint-
Good job outlining the playoff picture in these conferences.
I would still argue a 1 loss Tarlenton State (to ACU) should not rank higher than a 1 loss Griz team (should they lose to the cats). The Army win has not aged all that well. They played absolutely no one good other than ACU after that.
Sure hope it does not matter in the end as the Griz win the Big Sky Saturday.
I agree that the Cats could drop to 5th or 6th with a loss. Should be 5th as there just are not any other teams with a resume to pass them even at 9-3. (Tennessee Tech? MERCER?)
I see it playing out:
NDSU
Griz
Lehigh
Tarlenton
Probably Cats

Go Griz!
Click to expand...

Obviously 1 game to go, not sure how much this will move the needle, but;

Massey rankings: Tarleton 4th / Montana 3rd
Massey SoS rankings: Tarleton 29th / Montana 34th

Sagarin: Tarleton 71st / Montana 84th
Sagarin SoS: Tarleton 203 / Montana 193

Versus Simulator: Tarleton 6th / Montana 2nd
 
BWahlberg said:
I'm using Substack to share some of my longer-form thoughts so people on different platforms can read it too.
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Different platforms, you say?!? I thought we was the only place you came around...

FIG%2B2.jpg
 
GottaluvGriz said:
Brint-
Good job outlining the playoff picture in these conferences.
I would still argue a 1 loss Tarlenton State (to ACU) should not rank higher than a 1 loss Griz team (should they lose to the cats). The Army win has not aged all that well. They played absolutely no one good other than ACU after that.
Sure hope it does not matter in the end as the Griz win the Big Sky Saturday.
I agree that the Cats could drop to 5th or 6th with a loss. Should be 5th as there just are not any other teams with a resume to pass them even at 9-3. (Tennessee Tech? MERCER?)
I see it playing out:
NDSU
Griz
Lehigh
Tarlenton
Probably Cats

Go Griz!
Click to expand...
I disagree with Tarlington being anywhere near the top 10, along with Lehigh. Both teams get cooked by either the cats or the griz...
 
Hells bells said:
I disagree with Tarlington being anywhere near the top 10, along with Lehigh. Both teams get cooked by either the cats or the griz...
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That I agree - I'm sure there's a surprise team or two but it really feels like its NDSU, MSU, UM.... and everyone else - especially if teams have to come to Fargo, Bozeman, or Missoula to win games.
 
BWahlberg said:
That I agree - I'm sure there's a surprise team or two but it really feels like its NDSU, MSU, UM.... and everyone else - especially if teams have to come to Fargo, Bozeman, or Missoula to win games.
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A month ago we were saying it was NDSU and everyone else with a second tier of SDSU, MSU, UM,UND and maybe Tarleton. Now we sit having SDSU falling off a cliff, UND fighting for playoff livelihood, Tarleton having lost their shine and NDSU looking less in invincible. USD is coming on strong after being written off. Things can change drastically in a month. Everyone is one injury or bad matchup away from having their season derailed.

All I know is the Griz have put themselves in the best position possible heading into the final weekend of the season, and even with that we can get everything we want and a clear path forward at home or an awful scenario heading through Fargo/Bozeman which was worked hard to avoid all season.
 
THE CASE FOR SAC STATE (HornetSports.com)

  • The field for the 24-team NCAA FCS Playoffs will be announced on Sunday, Nov. 23, on ESPNU at 9 a.m PT. With the addition of the Ivy League for the first time, there will be 11 automatic qualifiers and 13 at-large selections.
  • A victory by Sacramento State would give the team eight NCAA Div. I wins which has been the benchmark for earning an at-large selection. The team would also be guaranteed to finish in sole possession of third place in the Big Sky with a 6-2 conference record.
  • Since 2018, the Big Sky has placed at least four teams in the FCS Playoffs each year and has had five in three of the past four seasons. The league has had at least three teams in the playoffs every season since 2012 except 2017 (two).
  • The Hornets are currently 19th in the Massey Ratings which is the computer poll used by the committee. The team is also 15th in the Massey Power index and offensive rating and 26th in strength of schedule. That number will improve after this week as UC Davis is ninth overall in the Massey.
  • Sacramento State will also be one of the hottest team's in the FCS at the end of the season. With a win this weekend, the team will have won its last four games, six of its last seven and eight of its final 10 games of the year.
  • The Hornets have an offensive efficiency rating of +7.52 points per game against FCS opponents. The rating is calculated by figuring the difference in points scored by Sacramento State compared to the average in that team's other games. The team has a defensive rating of +2.6 points per game.
 
Kadeezy said:
THE CASE FOR SAC STATE (HornetSports.com)

  • The field for the 24-team NCAA FCS Playoffs will be announced on Sunday, Nov. 23, on ESPNU at 9 a.m PT. With the addition of the Ivy League for the first time, there will be 11 automatic qualifiers and 13 at-large selections.
  • A victory by Sacramento State would give the team eight NCAA Div. I wins which has been the benchmark for earning an at-large selection. The team would also be guaranteed to finish in sole possession of third place in the Big Sky with a 6-2 conference record.
  • Since 2018, the Big Sky has placed at least four teams in the FCS Playoffs each year and has had five in three of the past four seasons. The league has had at least three teams in the playoffs every season since 2012 except 2017 (two).
  • The Hornets are currently 19th in the Massey Ratings which is the computer poll used by the committee. The team is also 15th in the Massey Power index and offensive rating and 26th in strength of schedule. That number will improve after this week as UC Davis is ninth overall in the Massey.
  • Sacramento State will also be one of the hottest team's in the FCS at the end of the season. With a win this weekend, the team will have won its last four games, six of its last seven and eight of its final 10 games of the year.
  • The Hornets have an offensive efficiency rating of +7.52 points per game against FCS opponents. The rating is calculated by figuring the difference in points scored by Sacramento State compared to the average in that team's other games. The team has a defensive rating of +2.6 points per game.
Click to expand...
It's pretty simple, if you beat Davis, you're in. If you don't, you're likely out.
 
Kadeezy said:
THE CASE FOR SAC STATE (HornetSports.com)

  • The field for the 24-team NCAA FCS Playoffs will be announced on Sunday, Nov. 23, on ESPNU at 9 a.m PT. With the addition of the Ivy League for the first time, there will be 11 automatic qualifiers and 13 at-large selections.
  • A victory by Sacramento State would give the team eight NCAA Div. I wins which has been the benchmark for earning an at-large selection. The team would also be guaranteed to finish in sole possession of third place in the Big Sky with a 6-2 conference record.
  • Since 2018, the Big Sky has placed at least four teams in the FCS Playoffs each year and has had five in three of the past four seasons. The league has had at least three teams in the playoffs every season since 2012 except 2017 (two).
  • The Hornets are currently 19th in the Massey Ratings which is the computer poll used by the committee. The team is also 15th in the Massey Power index and offensive rating and 26th in strength of schedule. That number will improve after this week as UC Davis is ninth overall in the Massey.
  • Sacramento State will also be one of the hottest team's in the FCS at the end of the season. With a win this weekend, the team will have won its last four games, six of its last seven and eight of its final 10 games of the year.
  • The Hornets have an offensive efficiency rating of +7.52 points per game against FCS opponents. The rating is calculated by figuring the difference in points scored by Sacramento State compared to the average in that team's other games. The team has a defensive rating of +2.6 points per game.
Click to expand...
Fuck those pud strokers
 
Kadeezy said:
THE CASE FOR SAC STATE (HornetSports.com)

  • The field for the 24-team NCAA FCS Playoffs will be announced on Sunday, Nov. 23, on ESPNU at 9 a.m PT. With the addition of the Ivy League for the first time, there will be 11 automatic qualifiers and 13 at-large selections.
  • A victory by Sacramento State would give the team eight NCAA Div. I wins which has been the benchmark for earning an at-large selection. The team would also be guaranteed to finish in sole possession of third place in the Big Sky with a 6-2 conference record.
  • Since 2018, the Big Sky has placed at least four teams in the FCS Playoffs each year and has had five in three of the past four seasons. The league has had at least three teams in the playoffs every season since 2012 except 2017 (two).
  • The Hornets are currently 19th in the Massey Ratings which is the computer poll used by the committee. The team is also 15th in the Massey Power index and offensive rating and 26th in strength of schedule. That number will improve after this week as UC Davis is ninth overall in the Massey.
  • Sacramento State will also be one of the hottest team's in the FCS at the end of the season. With a win this weekend, the team will have won its last four games, six of its last seven and eight of its final 10 games of the year.
  • The Hornets have an offensive efficiency rating of +7.52 points per game against FCS opponents. The rating is calculated by figuring the difference in points scored by Sacramento State compared to the average in that team's other games. The team has a defensive rating of +2.6 points per game.
Click to expand...
Says the guy whose team plays on a field without sidelines when on offense.
 
ElrodGrizzly said:
It would be objectively hilarious if Sac State somehow won it all, and he had spent the year calling the title they won a JV title.
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wouldn't that be considered a plus for him if his team turns out to be the champion of the division below where he wants to move the team? he'd be able to say that in it's first year with fbs intentions, his team showed their potential to compete.
 
Kadeezy said:
THE CASE FOR SAC STATE (HornetSports.com)

  • The field for the 24-team NCAA FCS Playoffs will be announced on Sunday, Nov. 23, on ESPNU at 9 a.m PT. With the addition of the Ivy League for the first time, there will be 11 automatic qualifiers and 13 at-large selections.
  • A victory by Sacramento State would give the team eight NCAA Div. I wins which has been the benchmark for earning an at-large selection. The team would also be guaranteed to finish in sole possession of third place in the Big Sky with a 6-2 conference record.
  • Since 2018, the Big Sky has placed at least four teams in the FCS Playoffs each year and has had five in three of the past four seasons. The league has had at least three teams in the playoffs every season since 2012 except 2017 (two).
  • The Hornets are currently 19th in the Massey Ratings which is the computer poll used by the committee. The team is also 15th in the Massey Power index and offensive rating and 26th in strength of schedule. That number will improve after this week as UC Davis is ninth overall in the Massey.
  • Sacramento State will also be one of the hottest team's in the FCS at the end of the season. With a win this weekend, the team will have won its last four games, six of its last seven and eight of its final 10 games of the year.
  • The Hornets have an offensive efficiency rating of +7.52 points per game against FCS opponents. The rating is calculated by figuring the difference in points scored by Sacramento State compared to the average in that team's other games. The team has a defensive rating of +2.6 points per game.
Click to expand...

Beat Davis and they're in - I think.

Also limited amount of upsets this weekend REALLY helps too:

- If UND beats SDSU then SDSU is probably out but if SDSU wins they both might get in
- If Yale beats Harvard I think they both are in, if Harvard wins then Yale is probably out
- Lafayette beating Lehigh probably punches their ticket, but if they lose they're on the bubble
- Sacred Heart beating Villanova makes them an attractive mid-major darling (they'd be 9-3)
- If Austin Peay beats Tarleton they'd be 8-4 and have a top 10 win
 
BWahlberg said:
Beat Davis and they're in - I think.

Also limited amount of upsets this weekend REALLY helps too:

- If UND beats SDSU then SDSU is probably out but if SDSU wins they both might get in
- If Yale beats Harvard I think they both are in, if Harvard wins then Yale is probably out
- Lafayette beating Lehigh probably punches their ticket, but if they lose they're on the bubble
- Sacred Heart beating Villanova makes them an attractive mid-major darling (they'd be 9-3)
- If Austin Peay beats Tarleton they'd be 8-4 and have a top 10 win
Click to expand...
Fortunately for Lafayette, both teams are undefeated in conference, so if Lafayette beats Lehigh, they would win the Patriot autobid and would be in the playoffs.

Apparently there is some strong history of Lafayette ruining Lehigh's best seasons, so don't be surprised if it happens again lol
 
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