Discussion
Southern Illinois probably has to win out to even have a shot at an at-large bid. A loss for South Dakota would put them in that hypothetical (7-5) bubble. Trouble is, my count of likely outcomes suggests that there might not be such a bubble … too many teams from decent to top conferences likely to have 8 or more wins.
Can South Dakota State right the ship, playing at home against Illinois State? It all turns on the status of the Jack’ QB doesn’t it? The winner goes to 8 wins and gives themselves a good chance for an at-large bid out of the Missouri Valley.
Stephen F. Austin is currently undefeated in the Southland Conference. A Lamar win would give the Cardinals the tie-breaker over SFA, but would also create a three-way tie with SE Louisiana. By a quirk of scheduling, SFA and SELA have not, and will not meet this year. However, Lamar also won over SELA, so I assume they would get the auto-bid (also assuming both beat their final opponents, which they should). Of course, that might not be how the tie-breakers work. How would I know?
Maine is at home against Rhode Island, and the game could have a huge impact on the CAA title race. The Rams are undefeated in conference, while Maine and two other teams have just one conference loss. A Maine win would create a four-way tie of one-loss teams, assuming the other two also win . Neither of the other two (Monmouth and Villanova) have or will play Rhode Island. I assume a head-to-head win means more when the tie-breakers kick in. And don’t be fooled by those four opening losses for the Black Bears, who had a bad start to the season (including two FBS losses). They have since won six straight.
I debated about including the Pennsylvania at Harvard game in the poll, given how strong the Crimson have looked. However, the Quakers do have a winning record, and one of those was over a pretty good Dartmouth team. That seemed reason enough to include it, with one other factor: Harvard could be looking ahead to the The Game a week later against Yale.
The Drake-Dayton game is part of one of the more interesting “end games” as the FCS season closes. Drake leads the Pioneer League with just one conference loss. Behind them, Dayton is one of four teams tied at two conference losses. If Drake wins, they should have clear sailing to the championship and playoff auto-bid. On the other hand, if Dayton wins, Drake becomes one of four (probably) teams tied with two conference losses. Since the two-loss “survivors” face relatively weak opponents the following week, the decision should come down to the conference tie-breakers (which I won’t even try to sort out). As for the game itself, we have two teams with identical overall records with mostly comparable schedule strengths. The exceptions are that Drake has faced two MVFC opponents … where they got pounded. Not sure that’s a plus. I make this a toss-up with perhaps a slight home-field edge to the Flyers. Will be rooting for the upset just to make life interesting for the conference officials.
I decided to include the St. Thomas-Minnesota vs Presbyterian game because of its link to the Drake-Dayton matchup. The Tommies and the Blue Hose are two of the four teams with two conference losses noted above. The loser of this game will, obviously, drop out of that tie. But if Drake loses (above), they would drop into that group. San Diego will likely remain the other member since they play at home against a weak (5-5) Butler team. The Tommies complete their conference season with this game, while the other three face conference bottom dwellers in their final games.
As for the game itself: We tend to think of St. Thomas as the “new kid on the block,” but they’ve sponsored competitive football for over a century. Then, under their current coach (hired in 2010), they got too good for their D-III level. Over a period of six years they did not lose a conference game. As a result, after the 2019 season, the conference “involuntarily removed” them … yep, kicked them out. The NCAA allowed them to jump directly D-I, FCS, and they have now completed their probationary period and are eligible for the playoffs. Neither team has played a powerhouse schedule, but I lean toward the Tommies playing at home.
The Lafayette at Richmond game may not seem all that interesting on the surface. The Spiders are out of the running for the Patriot League title and auto-bid, and the Patriot has generally been considered a one-bid conference. That perception, however, may be changing as the League adds more members moving over from the CAA. [And do we really care about a CAA that includes Bryant (3-7), Campbell (2-8), and Hampton (2-8)?] A Richmond win (and they’re at home) would do two things: It would give the Leopards a conference loss and a 4th loss overall. A (7-4) Richmond would face a tough but winnable final game (nonconference) to get to 8-4. Unless Lafayette upsets Lehigh in its final game, the Spiders would then have the record to perhaps qualify for an at-large bid. With their history of success, I would not want to bet against it. Unlikely … sure, but that’s what makes it interesting.
