Another week down, and another team off the bubble in the Big Sky. Idaho's loss to UC Davis last week pushes their small chances and probably gives a boost to NAU. Let's take a look at who's trending in the Big Sky and the Missouri Valley
Big Sky Conference: 2 teams are in, and the Big Sky could send 4 pretty easily but not 5.
Montana (10-0 / 6-0) - @ PSU, vs MSU - Obviously in with 10 wins. Beat Portland State and should be a lock for a top 4 seed. Doesn't matter if going into the brawl the Griz are 2nd or 3rd in the playoff committee's eyes - win it and you're the 2 seed. After a frustrating EWU win though, can't slip up and lose to Portland, that could be devastating.
Montana State (8-2 / 6-0) - vs UCD, @UM - Cats are in, even if they lose both, which I don't foresee anyways. Go 0-2 and you're still a seeded team with at least 1 home game, go 1-1 and you're a top 8, go 2-0 and you're the 2 seed.
UC Davis (7-2 / 5-1) - @MSU, vs Sac - Monumental task for UC, a big road win against UI and then back on the road against the Cats. They're in the top 10 right now, a loss to the Cats won't push them out of the playoffs, a loss to Sac though puts them at 7-4, probably still in the top 20... they're going to be on the bubble. An earlier head to head with NAU will help. How will the committee handle their no decision against presumably playoff bound Mercer, a game they were leading when it was called? Also, if Davis wins out, and Cats beat Griz... who gets the AQ? ISU beat Davis, Griz beat ISU.
Sacramento State (6-4 / 4-2) - vs UI, @ UCD - If Sac wins out they're in, being able to cap off the season on a 4 game win streak and beating a ranked Davis team on the road will complete the resume for the post season. Drop just 1 game and they're out. I think if the committee is considering Sac or NAU (if both win out) Sac has a ranked win and is in over NAU.
Northern Arizona - (6-4 / 3-3) - vs CPSLO, @ Weber - NAU has to win out. Losses this season are Arizona State, MSU, Davis, Idaho - so no "bad" loss, but also no "good win" as I don't think any team they've beat has over a .500 record. NAU is really cheering for Sac to drop a game too so there isn't a side by side comparison bc if so Sac will have a win over a ranked conference team and a better conference record.
Missouri Valley Conference: It's wild to look at but the MVFC has 7 teams that are still viable for the playoffs. Lots of big matchups in the weeks ahead.
North Dakota State (10-0 / 7-0) - vs UNI, vs St Thomas (MN) - The Bison are going to lock down the 1 seed, St Thomas is 7-3 but come on man, UNI has won 3 games.
South Dakota (7-4 / 5-2) - @SIU - USD dropped an early game to Lamar (now likely a playoff bound team) and fell all the way out of the polls. Now they have just 1 game left and a bye in the last week. Their other losses are Iowa State, NDSU, and Illinois State. Back to back wins against North Dakota and SDSU have them trending well.
Illinois State (7-3 / 4-2) @SDSU, vs SIU - Both SDSU and SIU can't afford another loss, both games could be knockout games. ISU's best is South Dakota, their OOC wins are pretty bad teams, they need to win out themselves.
North Dakota (6-4 / 4-2) @Murray St, vs SDSU - Murray State should be a "get right" game for UND and then it'll all come down to the SDSU game. If the Jackrabbits can beat ISU and UND beats Murray their matchup would have them at 7-4 v 8-3 and that game would determine who finishes over who in the conference standings. If UND loses to SDSU they'll be 7-5 with losses to possibly all playoff teams - they could still sneak in but will need help
South Dakota State (7-3 / 3-3) vs Illinois State, @ UND - SDSU is on a 3 game skid and for them the playoffs start this weekend, if they go 1-1 they will be 8-4 but they'll be 4-4 in conference and out of all the teams listed above will be the only team with a REAL BAD loss, their home loss to Indiana State. Maybe the committee gives them some love considering their injury situation, but I think there's other teams that are more deserving than them in that scenario. That week 2 win @ MSU though could be something they can cling to in the committee's eyes.
Youngstown State (6-4 / 3-3) vs Indiana State, @ UNI - Easy final 2 games for YSU against two, 3 win games. They have to win out. YSU's got wins against SIU and Illinois State, their losses right now are to Michigan State, SDSU, UND, and NDSU. YSU really needs SDSU to drop 1 more. If both finish 8-4 SDSU has the head to head and the early road win against MSU.
Southern Illinois (6-4 / 3-3) vs USD, @ISU - SIU has to win out as well and as you can see this grouping of SIU, USD, UND, SDSU, and ISU going to settle out with the upcoming head to head games. SIU kind of seems to be the NAU of the MVFC this year - no wins against top conference teams, they've beat Indiana State, UNI, and Murray State, while they've lost to NDSU, UND, and YSU. SIU is on the wrong side of the bubble right now, but winning out would correct that.
Big Sky Conference: 2 teams are in, and the Big Sky could send 4 pretty easily but not 5.
Montana (10-0 / 6-0) - @ PSU, vs MSU - Obviously in with 10 wins. Beat Portland State and should be a lock for a top 4 seed. Doesn't matter if going into the brawl the Griz are 2nd or 3rd in the playoff committee's eyes - win it and you're the 2 seed. After a frustrating EWU win though, can't slip up and lose to Portland, that could be devastating.
Montana State (8-2 / 6-0) - vs UCD, @UM - Cats are in, even if they lose both, which I don't foresee anyways. Go 0-2 and you're still a seeded team with at least 1 home game, go 1-1 and you're a top 8, go 2-0 and you're the 2 seed.
UC Davis (7-2 / 5-1) - @MSU, vs Sac - Monumental task for UC, a big road win against UI and then back on the road against the Cats. They're in the top 10 right now, a loss to the Cats won't push them out of the playoffs, a loss to Sac though puts them at 7-4, probably still in the top 20... they're going to be on the bubble. An earlier head to head with NAU will help. How will the committee handle their no decision against presumably playoff bound Mercer, a game they were leading when it was called? Also, if Davis wins out, and Cats beat Griz... who gets the AQ? ISU beat Davis, Griz beat ISU.
Sacramento State (6-4 / 4-2) - vs UI, @ UCD - If Sac wins out they're in, being able to cap off the season on a 4 game win streak and beating a ranked Davis team on the road will complete the resume for the post season. Drop just 1 game and they're out. I think if the committee is considering Sac or NAU (if both win out) Sac has a ranked win and is in over NAU.
Northern Arizona - (6-4 / 3-3) - vs CPSLO, @ Weber - NAU has to win out. Losses this season are Arizona State, MSU, Davis, Idaho - so no "bad" loss, but also no "good win" as I don't think any team they've beat has over a .500 record. NAU is really cheering for Sac to drop a game too so there isn't a side by side comparison bc if so Sac will have a win over a ranked conference team and a better conference record.
Missouri Valley Conference: It's wild to look at but the MVFC has 7 teams that are still viable for the playoffs. Lots of big matchups in the weeks ahead.
North Dakota State (10-0 / 7-0) - vs UNI, vs St Thomas (MN) - The Bison are going to lock down the 1 seed, St Thomas is 7-3 but come on man, UNI has won 3 games.
South Dakota (7-4 / 5-2) - @SIU - USD dropped an early game to Lamar (now likely a playoff bound team) and fell all the way out of the polls. Now they have just 1 game left and a bye in the last week. Their other losses are Iowa State, NDSU, and Illinois State. Back to back wins against North Dakota and SDSU have them trending well.
Illinois State (7-3 / 4-2) @SDSU, vs SIU - Both SDSU and SIU can't afford another loss, both games could be knockout games. ISU's best is South Dakota, their OOC wins are pretty bad teams, they need to win out themselves.
North Dakota (6-4 / 4-2) @Murray St, vs SDSU - Murray State should be a "get right" game for UND and then it'll all come down to the SDSU game. If the Jackrabbits can beat ISU and UND beats Murray their matchup would have them at 7-4 v 8-3 and that game would determine who finishes over who in the conference standings. If UND loses to SDSU they'll be 7-5 with losses to possibly all playoff teams - they could still sneak in but will need help
South Dakota State (7-3 / 3-3) vs Illinois State, @ UND - SDSU is on a 3 game skid and for them the playoffs start this weekend, if they go 1-1 they will be 8-4 but they'll be 4-4 in conference and out of all the teams listed above will be the only team with a REAL BAD loss, their home loss to Indiana State. Maybe the committee gives them some love considering their injury situation, but I think there's other teams that are more deserving than them in that scenario. That week 2 win @ MSU though could be something they can cling to in the committee's eyes.
Youngstown State (6-4 / 3-3) vs Indiana State, @ UNI - Easy final 2 games for YSU against two, 3 win games. They have to win out. YSU's got wins against SIU and Illinois State, their losses right now are to Michigan State, SDSU, UND, and NDSU. YSU really needs SDSU to drop 1 more. If both finish 8-4 SDSU has the head to head and the early road win against MSU.
Southern Illinois (6-4 / 3-3) vs USD, @ISU - SIU has to win out as well and as you can see this grouping of SIU, USD, UND, SDSU, and ISU going to settle out with the upcoming head to head games. SIU kind of seems to be the NAU of the MVFC this year - no wins against top conference teams, they've beat Indiana State, UNI, and Murray State, while they've lost to NDSU, UND, and YSU. SIU is on the wrong side of the bubble right now, but winning out would correct that.
