Upset Guesses, Nov 8

[IdaGriz01]

What a weekend coming up: Five ranked-vs-ranked matchups! Three of those are in the Missouri Valley, so a lot of important issues could be decided, or messed up, this weekend. Also, it just happens that all the underdogs in those five games are playing at home. How weird is that? I thought about going with just those, but there are also some important games in the CAA where the ranked teams face reasonably credible opponents.

As usual in the past, the team on the left is the underdog that might pull off the upset. You are allowed two choices, and you can change your votes later if you want to.

Disclaimer/Reminder: For reasons I have explained before, I do not include Big Sky games in these polls.

Official verification: Bobcats suck!

 

[IdaGriz01]

Discussion
The pollsters and schedulers did most of my work for me this time around. I don’t see any reason to discuss the ranked-vs-rank games. The fact that the underdogs are all on their home turf does make it that much more interesting.

By an odd bit of scheduling, the last three games listed in the poll could be big factors in how the CAA plays out the season … specifically who might be in line for at-large bids.
The first of those pivotal games is New Hampshire at Monmouth. With four losses already, New Hampshire cannot afford another one this late in the season. Meanwhile, Monmouth is locked in a tie for the CAA lead with Rhode Island. The Wildcats are the last obstacle that might prevent the Hawks from going undefeated in the conference … pretty clear sailing after this. They cannot afford to overlook New Hampshire, which has played a somewhat tougher schedules (three of four losses were to FBS or ranked FCS opponents).

Conversely, Rhode Island faces two tougher opponents, starting this weekend with Elon. The Phoenix have the slimmest possible chance to perhaps end up on what we speculate will be a (7-5) bubble. But to do that, they must win this game. That, of course, would knock the Rams out of the first-place tie. (Assuming that Monmouth wins.) Desperation and home-field advantage might be enough to get the Phoenix an upset.

Like Elon, Towson has only the slimmest chance of ending up on the bubble. So we again call upon desperation and home field to make an upset possible. On the other hand Villanova cannot afford another conference loss. With their one conference loss, they can hope that Monmouth and Rhode Island stumble at least once, Then it would come down to the more elaborate tie-breakers since the Wildcats have not played either team. (The unbalanced schedules in the CAA are a major pain in the butt.)

 

[Griz in Texas]

I have been a huge fightin' chikin' hawk fan since just now and they have to get me this win over NDSU. Prove that the USD loss was just looking to the big game with the fat oxen from far gone!

I think the game in Youngstown is a do or die for the flightless waterfowl and the Egyptian mutts have been living on the edge all year long, so they are going down. It would only let me pick 2 though, so this is my backup pick, see USD, SDSU below.

I'm not sure what a catamount is exactly, but there is cat in there and that's enough, along with wins over Samford, Campbell, Wofford, Furman and The Citadel is a whole lot of nobody, so I think Mercer goes on the road and easily avoids the upset.

Lamar embarrassed themselves losing at UIW last week and they are now in third in the SLC with the two teams they have ahead of them the next two weeks. This week, they stumble again at home against SELA.

I am now a faithful Yote follower and as long as Mason is still out, I pick them to beat the prairie bunnies at home. I will keep an eye out and I may not be such a faithful dog lover if Mason is playing and will look forward to seeing SDSU drop out of the top 10, where they should already be after being doubled up by a 3-6 team at home.

Monmouth handles UNH at home.

Elon is inconsistent and will fall short of the upset at home to URI.

Towson won't be a speed bump for Villanova.

Verifying - SCATS SUUUUUUUUUUCK

 

[#15 Fan]

That Taron Dickens (WCU QB) has been an absolute stud since taking the helm in Week 3 or 4, and he/they are going to run and throw all over Mercer. Mercer has a decent D, but WCU has an offense to rank up there with Griz & Monmouth since he took over.

SD beats sdsu if Mason doesn't play (says he's out of his boot, but still not practicing), and I don't think he'll be the same if/when he returns

YSU looked awesome last weekend, Brungard is an unreal athlete, and I think they beat SIU (SIU struggles bad against good/ranked teams, blows out bad teams)

 

[GrizTexas]

Western Carolina's QB was hurt but is back now and since he's returned they haven't lost. Even managed a couple of helmet stickers on Game Day Final...

 

[Wolf777]

Wish we could vote for 5 options.

 

[rocklobster]

I know USD best UND in Yankton last week, but this will be no cakewalk for NDSU this week in Grand Forks. They have a rabid fans base, and that team is better at home than on the road. This ia a bitter a rivalry as we have with Cate. I would not be surprised if there was an upset there. UND did not play the game they should have last week. They were absolutely flat. They will not come out that way this week. This their Suerbowl, especially at home.

 

[SinCityGriz2005]

UND has a decent chance of beating the chubby coos. I don't think they win though.​

Youngstown is going to upset SIU. I believe that.​

Western Carolina is going to upset Mercer.​

Lamar and the SELA Muddogs isn't an upset regardless of who wins. ​

I don't see South Dakota upsetting SDSU, but that's why they play the game. ​

New Hampshire is NOT going to upset Monmouth, not even close.​I don't think Elon will upset Rhode Island but anything can happen.

Towson IS NOT upsetting Villanova.

​

 

[fltheadgriz]

I am not sold on Lamar.
I think Glacier High Wolfpack could beat Lamar.

 

[5280Griz]

I think we could see more than 2 upsets this week. UND has the players in the trenches to beat anyone, SDSU is not good if Chase Mason is out and I like Western Carolina as well.

 

[Wolf777]

I know USD best UND in Yankton last week, but this will be no cakewalk for NDSU this week in Grand Forks. They have a rabid fans base, and that team is better at home than on the road. This ia a bitter a rivalry as we have with Cate. I would not be surprised if there was an upset there. UND did not play the game they should have last week. They were absolutely flat. They will not come out that way this week. This their Suerbowl, especially at home.

USD is in Yankton? That’s news to me. Thought it was in Vermillion. I agree with you. The Alerus center is a hard place to play in. Those 3 turnovers killed the Fighting Hawks against the Yotes.

 

[Wolf777]

I think we could see more than 2 upsets this week. UND has the players in the trenches to beat anyone, SDSU is not good if Chase Mason is out and I like Western Carolina as well.

Easily. Especially given the ranked on ranked matchups alone.

 

[IdaGriz01]

Easily. Especially given the ranked on ranked matchups alone.

That's the beauty of this weekend. The pollsters will have to deal with at least five ranked teams that lose. I'm as cynical about the polls as anyone; maybe more so since I have followed them for awhile (too long?). Some seem ignorant and irrational. However, there are enough of them that their collective opinions give us a clue as to what teams are drawing attention. Does that later reflect how other supposedly non-media "judges" decide on bids and seeds? I'm convinced they do. Just look at how the "objective?" CFP Rankings – out last night – track the most recent AP Poll. For FCS, following the STATS polls shows a little something of what's happening outside the Big Sky rut. Of course, the selection committee has to deal with all the auto-bids, but that leaves plenty of at-large bids to consider. Hasn't been that long since Northern Iowa seemed to lead a charmed life in the bidding ... and we were warned by how they held on in the later-season polls.

Along the way, it gives us something to talk/argue about.

 

[TheGriz]

I hate the Bison but they are not losing to UND, Eastern has a better chance of beating us this weekend

 

[kemajic]

I hate the Bison but they are not losing to UND, Eastern has a better chance of beating us this weekend

EWU has no chance to beat us this weekend. UND has a chance at home.

 

[TheGriz]

No they don't

 

[701Grizfan]

No they don't

I’ll be in GF for the game. Vegas has SU -13.5. UND has a chance they are a good fcs team but if I am wagering, I’ll take Bizon to get the W. Time will tell.

 

[AZDoc]

I chose with the masses, but honestly because I have no clue about SDSU QB situation and don't care enough to look it up! If backup is in...USD has a chance. And wouldn't the Griz want USD to win???

 

[IdaGriz01]

I chose with the masses, but honestly because I have no clue about SDSU QB situation and don't care enough to look it up! If backup is in...USD has a chance. And wouldn't the Griz want USD to win???

Luckily, I picked the right key words for a quick Google search and got this:

Coyotes Stun No. 8 North Dakota, Host Jackrabbits Next – The Volante

volanteonline.com

It's from the opponent's backyard, so take it for what it's worth. Key quote:

The Jackrabbits feature a balanced offense typically led by quarterback Chase Mason. Mason’s status for Saturday is questionable, as he did not play in the game the week before.

The Jackrabbits are facing an injury bug at the position. SDSU backup quarterback Luke Marble left the game late with an injury in the second half against Indiana State. Jack Henry is the third quarterback for the Jackrabbits and may be the man under center on Saturday.

Kickoff between South Dakota and South Dakota State is set for 3 p.m. Saturday on ESPNU. The game will also serve as Senior Day for the Coyotes inside the DakotaDome.

Two key points: (1) SDSU is still being cagey about Mason's status. (2) Had not heard that the backup, Marble, had also gone out with an injury. As to the first, even if Mason gets back (personally, I'm doubtful), he's likely to be rusty. On the second, they seem to expect to see the Q3.

Nothing I've found leads me to change my vote for a USD "upset." (Listed that way only because the pollsters, IMO, ranked SDSU higher than they should be.)

 

[Da Boyz Mom]

Luckily, I picked the right key words for a quick Google search and got this:

Coyotes Stun No. 8 North Dakota, Host Jackrabbits Next – The Volante

volanteonline.com

It's from the opponent's backyard, so take it for what it's worth. Key quote:

Two key points: (1) SDSU is still being cagey about Mason's status. (2) Had not heard that the backup, Marble, had also gone out with an injury. As to the first, even if Mason gets back (personally, I'm doubtful), he's likely to be rusty. On the second, they seem to expect to see the Q3.

Nothing I've found leads me to change my vote for a USD "upset." (Listed that way only because the pollsters, IMO, ranked SDSU higher than they should be.)

Wow. Losing chase Mason was bad enough but then having the second stringer go out also? No wonder they lost to Indiana State. Makes much more sense now. I'm not sure they win any games until they get at least the backup guy back.