IdaGriz01
Well-known member
Two ranked teams lost to other ranked teams, while two others lost to unranked opponents. The most interesting question will be how far, if any, South Dakota State will drop. For the two that lost to unranked teams, the answer will likely be based on how impressed (or not) the pollsters are by the winning opponent.
Rank Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
1. North Dakota State (8-0) [1]
2. Tarleton State (9-0) [3]
3. Montana (8-0) [4]
4. South Dakota State (7-1) [2]
5. Montana State (6-2) [5]
6. UC Davis (6-1) [6]
7. Lehigh (8-0) [7]
8. North Dakota (6-2) [8]
9. Tennessee Tech (8-0) [9]
10. Monmouth (4-1) [10]
11. Villanova (6-2) [11]
12. Rhode Island (7-2) [13]
13. Harvard (6-0) [14]
14. Lamar (7-1) [15]
15. Southern Illinois (5-3) [16]
16. Mercer (6-1) [17]
17. Illinois State (5-3) [18]
18. Northern Arizona (5-3) [20]
19. Youngstown State (5-3) [22]
20. Abilene Christian (4-4) [23]
21. Jackson State (5-2) [12]
22. Stephen F. Austin (6-2) [24]
23. Austin Peay (5-3) [25]
24. SE Louisiana (6-2) [NR]
25. South Dakota (5-4) [21]
Presbyterian (7-1) [19]
The top question for the next poll will be what happens to South Dakota State. Had the game been close/competitive, not much would have happened since they lost to what most consider a prohibitive #1. But it wasn’t close, so I’m going out on a bit of a limb and guessing they drop at least two or three spots. I have three thoughts: First, the pollsters will concede that the Jackrabbits “aren’t the same team without their QB1.” Well, they’re clearly not the team they’ve kept at #2 all this time … so down they go. Second, the game was pretty ugly. It wasn’t just that they couldn’t score … they couldn’t keep the ball out of the Bison’s hands. In fact, I just looked at the box score and see that the Jacks managed only 43 yards rushing (Ouch!). My final point has to do with the pollsters’ behavior this year. They have tended to punish teams who lose to another ranked team, unlike in past years. So “it just makes sense” that they could drop at least below the undefeated teams at the top. It also wouldn’t shock me if they even dropped them below the kitties. After all, this is not the same team that squeaked out an OT win in Bozeman. Not saying it will happen, but it could.
I expect the list to stay the same down to Jackson State, which lost to unranked Grambling. Not only is Grambling unranked, they have not received any votes in any previous poll this year. (No wonder, two of their wins were over an NAIA and a D-II opponent.) The game was close and decided by a FG with just 21 seconds left in the game. But that says that J-State could not stop Grambling when it mattered … and these days it seems like a 44 yard FG is no big deal. I expect the pollsters will hammer Jackson State a lot.
The next ranked team loss was Presbyterian, which lost fairly decisively to unranked Dayton. Again, the Flyers are not just unranked, they have not received any poll votes all year. (FWIW: One of their wins was over an NAIA team currently transitioning to D-II.) I can see the pollsters taking a harder look at the Blue Hose schedule, which includes an NAIA opponent and a really bad D-II. It would not at all surprise me if the pollsters drop them out of the top-25.
Finally, we get to South Dakota, which lost to #18 Illinois State. My only uncertainty is based on what I mentioned above: The pollsters seem not quite so forgiving of such losses as they have been in past years. However, although they were at home, this was not a bad loss (8 points). Four losses could be a killer … but every loss was to an FBS opponent or to a ranked FCS team. They will drop, but I think they will hang on in the Top-25.
With my guess that Presbyterian will drop out, we need a replacement. For that, Southeast Louisiana is an easy call since they were the top “Other” vote-getter in the last poll, and won handily on the road.
Rank Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
1. North Dakota State (8-0) [1]
2. Tarleton State (9-0) [3]
3. Montana (8-0) [4]
4. South Dakota State (7-1) [2]
5. Montana State (6-2) [5]
6. UC Davis (6-1) [6]
7. Lehigh (8-0) [7]
8. North Dakota (6-2) [8]
9. Tennessee Tech (8-0) [9]
10. Monmouth (4-1) [10]
11. Villanova (6-2) [11]
12. Rhode Island (7-2) [13]
13. Harvard (6-0) [14]
14. Lamar (7-1) [15]
15. Southern Illinois (5-3) [16]
16. Mercer (6-1) [17]
17. Illinois State (5-3) [18]
18. Northern Arizona (5-3) [20]
19. Youngstown State (5-3) [22]
20. Abilene Christian (4-4) [23]
21. Jackson State (5-2) [12]
22. Stephen F. Austin (6-2) [24]
23. Austin Peay (5-3) [25]
24. SE Louisiana (6-2) [NR]
25. South Dakota (5-4) [21]
Presbyterian (7-1) [19]
The top question for the next poll will be what happens to South Dakota State. Had the game been close/competitive, not much would have happened since they lost to what most consider a prohibitive #1. But it wasn’t close, so I’m going out on a bit of a limb and guessing they drop at least two or three spots. I have three thoughts: First, the pollsters will concede that the Jackrabbits “aren’t the same team without their QB1.” Well, they’re clearly not the team they’ve kept at #2 all this time … so down they go. Second, the game was pretty ugly. It wasn’t just that they couldn’t score … they couldn’t keep the ball out of the Bison’s hands. In fact, I just looked at the box score and see that the Jacks managed only 43 yards rushing (Ouch!). My final point has to do with the pollsters’ behavior this year. They have tended to punish teams who lose to another ranked team, unlike in past years. So “it just makes sense” that they could drop at least below the undefeated teams at the top. It also wouldn’t shock me if they even dropped them below the kitties. After all, this is not the same team that squeaked out an OT win in Bozeman. Not saying it will happen, but it could.
I expect the list to stay the same down to Jackson State, which lost to unranked Grambling. Not only is Grambling unranked, they have not received any votes in any previous poll this year. (No wonder, two of their wins were over an NAIA and a D-II opponent.) The game was close and decided by a FG with just 21 seconds left in the game. But that says that J-State could not stop Grambling when it mattered … and these days it seems like a 44 yard FG is no big deal. I expect the pollsters will hammer Jackson State a lot.
The next ranked team loss was Presbyterian, which lost fairly decisively to unranked Dayton. Again, the Flyers are not just unranked, they have not received any poll votes all year. (FWIW: One of their wins was over an NAIA team currently transitioning to D-II.) I can see the pollsters taking a harder look at the Blue Hose schedule, which includes an NAIA opponent and a really bad D-II. It would not at all surprise me if the pollsters drop them out of the top-25.
Finally, we get to South Dakota, which lost to #18 Illinois State. My only uncertainty is based on what I mentioned above: The pollsters seem not quite so forgiving of such losses as they have been in past years. However, although they were at home, this was not a bad loss (8 points). Four losses could be a killer … but every loss was to an FBS opponent or to a ranked FCS team. They will drop, but I think they will hang on in the Top-25.
With my guess that Presbyterian will drop out, we need a replacement. For that, Southeast Louisiana is an easy call since they were the top “Other” vote-getter in the last poll, and won handily on the road.
