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Upset Guesses, Oct 3,4

What upsets are possible?

  • #24 Youngstown State (3-1) vs #2 SDSU (4-0)

    Votes: 14 25.0%

  • #6 Illinois State (3-1) vs #1 NDSU (4-0)

    Votes: 21 37.5%

  • Indiana State (2-2) at #10 Southern Illinois (3-1)

    Votes: 2 3.6%

  • Northern Iowa (2-2) vs #15 North Dakota (2-2)

    Votes: 6 10.7%

  • Alabama A&M (3-2) vs #17 Jackson State (3-1)

    Votes: 4 7.1%

  • Delaware State (3-2) at #14 Monmouth (3-1)

    Votes: 10 17.9%

  • New Hampshire (3-2) vs #18 Villanova (2-2)

    Votes: 23 41.1%

  • Brown (1-1) vs #8 Rhode Island (4-1)

    Votes: 9 16.1%
  • Total voters
    56
IdaGriz01

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
This week we have two ranked-vs-ranked matchups outside the Big Sky. We also have several games where ranked teams are facing credible opponents.

As usual in the past, the team on the left is the underdog that might pull off the upset.

You are allowed two choices, but you can change your vote(s) later if you want to.

Official verification: Bobcats suck!
 
Discussion
The ranked-vs-ranked matchups in the Missouri Valley don’t require much discussion. There is some extra upset potential because both underdogs are playing at home.

The upset potential in the Indiana State at Southern Illinois game is somewhat obscured because of how the Griz pounded the Sycamores. But recall two points: (1) Their other loss was to FBS-ranked Indiana. (2) The wins for SIU have not been against particularly good opponents. Plus, the Salukis are known for laying an egg just when you think they’ve got it going.

The game between Northern Iowa and North Dakota is interesting because they have the same record. Yet one is ranked mid-level and the other isn’t even receiving votes. How the mighty have fallen, given that the Panthers used to lose games and still move up in the polls. If you “look under the hood,” you find they played mostly similar schedules, except that UND had that close loss to the Griz. Of course, that’s why we really don’t want to root for an upset here. But the Hawks better not overlook Northern Iowa playing at home.

I seldom include SWAC games in this poll because that conference mostly ignores FCS football. (A good thing, since their teams have a wretched W-L record against FCS teams outside their SWAC/MEAC clique.) But the national pollsters have been giving the Tigers a lot of votes. Admittedly, J-State’s only loss was to an FBS opponents, but one of their wins was against a D-II. Of course, one of AA&M’s wins was over D-II Tuskegee. (SWAC teams love to pick on Tuskegee.) Still, one of the Bulldog losses was also to an FBS opponent. So I rate this as a toss-up and have included it anyway.

I included the Delaware State at Monmouth game mainly because D-State has been a surprise contender this year. After years of being barely able to win a couple games, the Hornets are suddenly competitive this year. They won three straight after losing to an FBS opponent in their first game. Then they lost a close road game to a pretty good (4-1) Sacred Heart team. We can see how they do against a solid Monmouth team.

Villanova has not yet convinced me that they deserve their ranking. Of course, New Hampshire has not looked all that great either. Still, the Wildcats can be pretty tough at home, so I see a good chance that they win this game.

The game at Brown is a bit of a crap shoot, in my mind. We just don’t have much to go on with the Bears. Meanwhile, Rhode Island has an impressive-looking record and a top-10 ranking. Their only loss was to an FBS opponent (not a very good FBS, but still … ) However, as the saying goes, “not so fast, my friend.” The Rams have acquired their four wins against teams that have a combined (4-16) record. They barely beat Holy Cross, 9-7 … scored a FG with a bit over 2 min left in the game. The Crusaders have yet to win a game. Rhode Island may or may not be a good team, but – based on the pitiful schedule they’ve played – I would certainly consider them over-rated.
 
No upsets in this grouping:

#24 Youngstown State (3-1) vs #2 SDSU (4-0) Even home field advantage doesn't help the Penguins. It was a short visit to the top 25. Jacks win 35-17

#6 Illinois State (3-1) vs #1 NDSU (4-0) Once again, home field doesn't provide shelter for the Redbirds and the egriz questions start on if they fall far enough in the polls after losing to #1. Buffalo Butt wins 37-20

Indiana State (2-2) at #10 Southern Illinois (3-1) SIU might not be worthy of a top 10 billing, but they will handle Indiana State. Not by 43 mind you, the Egyptian Dogs win 45-17

Northern Iowa (2-2) vs #15 North Dakota (2-2) if UNI can only win by 3 against Eastern at home, they don't have a prayer against North Dakota, but this might be the best measuring stick we have up to this point of where Montana stands. The loser is going to be on the edge of elimination from the post season with 3 losses. Fighting Hawks prevail 35-20

Alabama A&M (3-2) vs #17 Jackson State (3-1) You might argue the Bulldogs lost to Bethune-Cookman last week looking forward to this game in Mobile. I think they are just that bad. Tigers win 31-21
Delaware State (3-2) at #14 Monmouth (3-1) the Hornets just lost to our week 8 opponent, Sacred Heart, 35-31, which isn't good, except that it lifts Sacred Heart in the standings for the beat down that awaits. Hawks win 44-24

New Hampshire (3-2) vs #18 Villanova (2-2) 'Nova has been inconsistent at best this season which is almost a compelling argument that we should have reached out to play them in week 1 rather than play Sacred Heart, but that's all water under the bridge. New Hampshire hasn't been much better, but it is a home game for New Hampshire and IF I was going to call an upset for this week, it would be this game, but I think they lose, Villanova wins 27-21.

Brown (1-1) vs #8 Rhode Island (4-1) this was a home game for Brown, but they moved it to a soccer stadium in Pawtucket just a few weeks before the start of the season because they think it will attract a crowd. That won't help the Bears, Rams win 27-21.

Oh yeah, Bobcats SUCK!
 
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MikeyGriz said:
Idaho doesn't include BSC games in these poles.
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Not always true, he's put on some games featuring BSC schools in the past, but I think he's said before he tends to not put MSU on here because everyone would just vote for them lol
 
Been doing this a long time. Except in very special circumstances, I long ago stopped putting Big Sky games in it. I found that many voters simply jumped on their pet hates or favorites among other BSC teams, so there was little point in listing other games. Feel free to create your own poll for just the Big Sky.
 
BTW: My reluctance to include Big Sky game is not a criticism. It's purely practical.0, since it is totally understandable that people on eGRiz would head to the BSC matchups. That's what most of us are most familiar with. But given that tendency, the effort to pick and assess non-BSC games becomes an exercise in futility.
 
Griz in Texas said:
No upsets in this grouping:

#24 Youngstown State (3-1) vs #2 SDSU (4-0) Even home field advantage doesn't help the Penguins. It was a short visit to the top 25. Jacks win 35-17

#6 Illinois State (3-1) vs #1 NDSU (4-0) Once again, home field doesn't provide shelter for the Redbirds and the egriz questions start on if they fall far enough in the polls after losing to #1. Buffalo Butt wins 37-20

Indiana State (2-2) at #10 Southern Illinois (3-1) SIU might not be worthy of a top 10 billing, but they will handle Indiana State. Not by 43 mind you, the Egyptian Dogs win 45-17

Northern Iowa (2-2) vs #15 North Dakota (2-2) if UNI can only win by 3 against Eastern at home, they don't have a prayer against North Dakota, but this might be the best measuring stick we have up to this point of where Montana stands. The loser is going to be on the edge of elimination from the post season with 3 losses. Fighting Hawks prevail 35-20

Alabama A&M (3-2) vs #17 Jackson State (3-1) You might argue the Bulldogs lost to Bethune-Cookman last week looking forward to this game in Mobile. I think they are just that bad. Tigers win 31-21
Delaware State (3-2) at #14 Monmouth (3-1) the Hornets just lost to our week 8 opponent, Sacred Heart, 35-31, which isn't good, except that it lifts Sacred Heart in the standings for the beat down that awaits. Hawks win 44-24

New Hampshire (3-2) vs #18 Villanova (2-2) 'Nova has been inconsistent at best this season which is almost a compelling argument that we should have reached out to play them in week 1 rather than play Sacred Heart, but that's all water under the bridge. New Hampshire hasn't been much better, but it is a home game for New Hampshire and IF I was going to call an upset for this week, it would be this game, but I think they lose, Villanova wins 27-21.

Brown (1-1) vs #8 Rhode Island (4-1) this was a home game for Brown, but they moved it to a soccer stadium in Pawtucket just a few weeks before the start of the season because they think it will attract a crowd. That won't help the Bears, Rams win 27-21.

Oh yeah, Bobcats SUCK!
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Nice post. Of course, the favorites are the favorites for a reason. Still, as the saying goes, "that's why they play the game(s)." You could well be right, but with eight games on the list, I'll be very surprised if we don't see at a couple of upsets.
 
TheGrizManFan said:
The most likely upset this week is the cat game. NAU is a tough place to play
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I wouldn't be a bit surprised if you're right about that. I have been to two games there, we won the first one in 2009. In 2016, it was like our guys were running in quicksand. Waited for them to pull of the come from behind, but they just looked gassed the entire second quarter. We made that trip a double header and went to see the 'Hawks and Cardinals in Glendale, which ended in a disappointing 6-6 tie.
I still feel like how the kitty cat luck lets them pull this off, but I wouldn't lay money on it.
 
Been a surge of votes for Illinois State, I see. Do some people know something the rest of us don't? Or are those the Bison-haters who decided to join in?

Inquiring minds want to.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Been a surge of votes for Illinois State, I see. Do some people know something the rest of us don't? Or are those the Bison-haters who decided to join in?

Inquiring minds want to.
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That was what I went with last week when they played USD.

Not unlike a Bozeman loss, it makes my day better somehow when the cowgirls and the f'in yankees fall. :ROFLMAO:
 
Brown vs Rhode Island :) Primarily because everyone knows the IVYs play the best football in the FCS and Brown is a better academic college than Rhode Island so they are better than Rhode Island in football.
 
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GriznMN said:
I picked Brown vs Rhode Island BEFORE I turned on the game and looked at the score :) Primarily because everyone knows they play the best football in the FCS in the IVY and Brown is a better academic college than Rhode Island so they are better than Rhode Island in football.
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Love your "reasoning!" If the pollsters buy your assessment of Ivy football, maybe the Rams won't fall too far. My early guess is that they will get crushed.
GrizTexas said:
Big win for Brown... RI was overrated...
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Yep. Numbers for RI suggested they didn't deserve a #8 ranking ... either Brown is really, really good (possibly, but unlikely) or the Rams were way over-rated (as I noted in my Discussion).
 
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