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FCS Poll Guesses (Sept 28)

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Five ranked teams lost yesterday, two to ranked teams and one to an FBS opponent. I expect relatively minor changes for those three, but the other two losers could take major hits.

Rank Guess, Team (Record), Current Rank
1. NDSU (4-0) [1]
2. South Dakota State (4-0) [2]
3. Tarleton State (5-0) [3]
4. Montana State (3-2) [4]
5. Montana (4-0) [5]
6. Illinois State (3-1) [7]
7. UC Davis (3-1) [9]
8. Lehigh (5-0) [10]
9. Southern Illinois (3-1) [11]
10. Idaho (2-3) [8]
11. Rhode Island (4-1) [6]
12. Tennessee Tech (4-0) [13]
13. North Dakota (2-2) [14]
14. NAU (4-1) [15]
15. Monmouth (2-1) [16]
16. Abilene Christian (2-3) [12]
17. West Georgia (5-0) [18]
18. Jackson State (3-1) [19]
19. Villanova (2-2) [20]
20. Lamar (3-1) [22]
21. South Dakota (2-3) [17]
22. Austin Peay (3-2) [23]
23. Incarnate Word (2-3) [NR]
24. Presbyterian (5-0) [25]
25. Youngstown State (3-1) [24]

Sacramento State (2-3) [21]

Don’t see any changes at the top, unless the pollsters decide to change enough votes to move the Griz ahead of MSU. (Recall that there was only a one-vote difference in the last poll.) Could happen, but I don’t give that a high probability.

The first question is: What happens to Rhode Island? They got pounded by an FBS opponent. Normally, not a killer loss. However, Western Michigan is a pretty weak FBS program and the Rams don’t really have a “signature” win to bolster their case. I’m thinking there’s a good chance they will drop out of the top-10.

That, of course, brings us to Idaho. Although the game was not as close as the final score shows (IMO). I think the pollsters will be relatively forgiving and not drop the Spuds out of the top-10.

Next up, Abilene Christian, which lost a road game to unranked Incarnate Word. Normally, that would lead to a major hit in the poll. However, the pollsters now seem to have a soft spot for UIW, which I think will work in the Wildcats’ favor. I see a drop of only 4-5 spots.

The loss by South Dakota at #1 NDSU would normally not hurt them too much. However, most observers seem to feel that the blowout would have been much worse if the Bison had kept their foot on the gas all the way. I think the ‘Yoyes will take a big hit

Last but not least, we get to Sac State, which lost to unranked and generally unimpressive Cal Poly. Although they were on the road, I think the pollsters will drop the Hornets out of the top-25.

So the question becomes: Who will replace them? Mercer was the top “Other” with votes last week. However, they were only 29 points ahead of UIW. I think the Cardinals, with their decisive win over #12 Abilene Christian, will move into the top-25.
 
I think we will see the Griz move ahead of the cats. 2 ranked wins now whereas the cats don’t have anything like that. I saw a few of the national media writers saying they would be loading for the Griz to move up.
Totally agree. But I have to question how many of the pollsters actually look at the quality of a team's opponents. Many will just look at the beatdown score for the kitties and stay with their pick. Of course, it wouldn't take much to reverse the order, but I decided to not count on that.
 
I read two pollsters say that if the Griz Win, they will move them up no matter what the Cats do. Since we were only down 1 point in the poll to the Cats, if those two pollsters are true to their word, the Griz should move up.
 
Totally agree. But I have to question how many of the pollsters actually look at the quality of a team's opponents. Many will just look at the beatdown score for the kitties and stay with their pick. Of course, it wouldn't take much to reverse the order, but I decided to not count on that.
If that is the case it is pointless to have these rankings. The quality of Montanas wins have been better then the Cats and Tarletons for that matter.
 
If that is the case it is pointless to have these rankings. The quality of Montanas wins have been better then the Cats and Tarletons for that matter.
Actually, after rereading Haley's bit about the weekend games, I'm thinking the chances of the Griz nudging up a spot are better than I thought earlier. Also, since Tarleton was Idle, it's not out of the realm of possibility that the Griz could move ahead of them too. Haley specifically mentioned that the Griz have win against two top-25 opponents. That might count for something.
 
I think that somehow one of the Ivies is going to slip in to the top 25...have to have them there since they will now be in the playoffs.
 
Totally agree. But I have to question how many of the pollsters actually look at the quality of a team's opponents. Many will just look at the beatdown score for the kitties and stay with their pick. Of course, it wouldn't take much to reverse the order, but I decided to not count on that.
I agree, sort of. Two wins over top ten FCS schools should win out over a blow out loss to to Oregon and a home loss to SDSU. Remember, they only beat Mercyhurst 17-0, a team which SDSU demolished. This win over EWU was kind of a statement win, but shit, Hellgate High School could beat the Eags. Seriously though, I think someone said CWU would beat them, and I believe it. If they're ahead of the Griz, I wouldn't be surprised, but most of that voting will come from writers who haven't been paying attention. At this point, it sure seems like the Griz are a much better team.
 
The bubz, on paper, could be the worst #4 team in history. They are barely over five hundred and struggled at home against a team who did not exist before last year. The three teams the bubz beat have a combined record of 5-10 with wins against teams called “New Haven” and “St Thomas”. The only team the bubz beat with a winning record is a non-scholarship team at home.

All that said, I hope they keep rising in the polls, ideally to #1!
 
Well then who has SDSU really beat? An overrated Bobcat team on the road I guess. Griz need to keep taking care of business and they have the potential to end up #2 by the end of the season. Maybe #1, but that is such a long shot that would require MVC teams to really beat up on each other. If ND ended up winning the conference - then maybe.
 
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