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FCS Poll Guesses (Sept 21)

IdaGriz01

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Some very interesting results yesterday, including several results that could fuel some big changes in the next STATS poll. So, just for fun, here we go again.

Rank Guess, Team (Record), Current Rank
1. North Dakota State (3-0) [1]
2. South Dakota State (3-0) [2]
3. Tarleton State (5-0) [3]
4. Montana (3-0) [5]
5. Montana State (2-2) [4]
6. Rhode Island (4-0) [7]
7. Illinois State (3-1) [6]
8. UC Davis (2-1) [9]
9. Idaho (2-2) [8]
10. Lehigh (4-0) [10]
11. Tennessee Tech (3-0) [12]
12. Southern Illinois (3-1) [13]
13. Abilene Christian (2-2) [14]
14. South Dakota (2-2) [15]
15. Monmouth (3-1) [21]
16. NAU (3-1) [17]
17. North Dakota (2-2) [16]
18. Villanova (1-2) [11]
19. Jackson State (2-1) [20]
20. West Georgia (4-0) [22]
21. Sac State (2-2) [24]
22. Austin Peay (2-2) 18]
23. Lamar (2-1) [23]
24. Incarnate Word (1-3) [19]
25. Harvard (1-0) [NR] 54

New Hampshire (2-2) [25]

I’m going to start with something that seldom happens, but I think might this time around: The Griz could nudge ahead of the kitties this week. The pollsters must at least look at the box scores, and they’ll see two things. First, MSU did not score at all in the second half. Most will know that Mercyhurst is in only its second year in D-I … a 17-0 win at home by the Bobcats is distinctly unimpressive. On the other hand, the box score shows that the Griz led 49-7 at the end of the third quarter before ISU got some late garbage-time points.

If the pollsters are in a grumpy mood, I could see them slip Illinois State down a spot. Rhode Island (now 4-0) took care of business, while the Redbirds barely got into OT because of a missed PAT late. Otherwise, they lose to unranked North Alabama.

Next up, Idaho, with its close loss at San Jose State. If SJSU weren’t such a wretched FBS team, I’d say the Spuds might not drop at all. But the Spartans really are that bad, and most people know it. I’m guessing UI will go down one or two, but still remain in the top-10.

Then comes the real shocker: #21 Monmouth over #11 Villanova … by 18 points. And Craig Haley’s item about the game said it “really wasn’t as close as the final score.” I’m betting the pollsters will drop the Wildcat and boost the Hawks enough so Monmouth is ahead by at least one spot, if not more. With Villanova dropping so much, several teams below should nudge up at least one spot.

The next loss by a ranked team, Austin Peay at Abilene Christian, should be more straightforward. Losing to a higher-ranked team usually costs the loser three or four spots, which is what I think will happen in this case.

The next case is a bit different, however: NAU’s win over Incarnate Word. In my mind, UIW has been skating on thin ice all year. And that (1-3) record sticks out like a sore thumb. They could drop a lot, although they will probably stay in the top-25.

Last and least, New Hampshire should drop out of the top-25. Losing a game when you’re #25 pretty well guarantees it.

But who will replace them? The highest “Other Receiving Votes” in the last poll was (somehow) Presbyterian. They just obliterated an NAIA opponent and no way do I see them moving in. Next up is Mercer, and that could happen. But I don’t think it will. That’s partly because Haley’s post-games column gushed about the strong start for the Ivy League in their opening games. By rights, of course, Dartmouth, which beat New Hampshire, should take their place. Trouble is, the Big Green have not received any votes in the previous polls. Meanwhile, Harvard has been cruising along with votes, even without playing any games. I’m thinking the pollsters will move them into that 25th spot.
 
I was checking some stats and was reminded that the Illinois State game with North Alabama was twice delayed for over an hour at a time by lightning in the area. My guess that they might slip a spot most likely won't pan out ... the pollsters will probably cut them some slack.
 
Wouldn't shock me if UIW slips to 26, Harvard is 24 and Yale is 25
Some of the pollsters have such a crush on the Ivy conference
 
Craig Haley posted his ballot for the top 25 today. It was something like this
1. Ndsu
2.Sdsu
3. Tarleton
4.msu
5 Montana

I asked him who gets what seed if Montana, Tarleton and either Sdsu or Ndsu goes undefeated. He replied with he would go with what his rankings are right now. How is this dude able to cast a vote. 🤡
 
fltheadgriz said:
Wouldn't shock me if UIW slips to 26, Harvard is 24 and Yale is 25
Some of the pollsters have such a crush on the Ivy conference
Click to expand...
Totally agree about UIW possibly slipping, and deserve to IMO. And a lot of pollsters do seem to be infatuated with the Ivy. But I'm not so sure about Yale moving in ... I'd still go for Dartmouth.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Some very interesting results yesterday, including several results that could fuel some big changes in the next STATS poll. So, just for fun, here we go again.

Rank Guess, Team (Record), Current Rank
1. North Dakota State (3-0) [1]
2. South Dakota State (3-0) [2]
3. Tarleton State (5-0) [3]
4. Montana (3-0) [5]
5. Montana State (2-2) [4]
6. Rhode Island (4-0) [7]
7. Illinois State (3-1) [6]
8. UC Davis (2-1) [9]
9. Idaho (2-2) [8]
10. Lehigh (4-0) [10]
11. Tennessee Tech (3-0) [12]
12. Southern Illinois (3-1) [13]
13. Abilene Christian (2-2) [14]
14. South Dakota (2-2) [15]
15. Monmouth (3-1) [21]
16. NAU (3-1) [17]
17. North Dakota (2-2) [16]
18. Villanova (1-2) [11]
19. Jackson State (2-1) [20]
20. West Georgia (4-0) [22]
21. Sac State (2-2) [24]
22. Austin Peay (2-2) 18]
23. Lamar (2-1) [23]
24. Incarnate Word (1-3) [19]
25. Harvard (1-0) [NR] 54

New Hampshire (2-2) [25]

I’m going to start with something that seldom happens, but I think might this time around: The Griz could nudge ahead of the kitties this week. The pollsters must at least look at the box scores, and they’ll see two things. First, MSU did not score at all in the second half. Most will know that Mercyhurst is in only its second year in D-I … a 17-0 win at home by the Bobcats is distinctly unimpressive. On the other hand, the box score shows that the Griz led 49-7 at the end of the third quarter before ISU got some late garbage-time points.

If the pollsters are in a grumpy mood, I could see them slip Illinois State down a spot. Rhode Island (now 4-0) took care of business, while the Redbirds barely got into OT because of a missed PAT late. Otherwise, they lose to unranked North Alabama.

Next up, Idaho, with its close loss at San Jose State. If SJSU weren’t such a wretched FBS team, I’d say the Spuds might not drop at all. But the Spartans really are that bad, and most people know it. I’m guessing UI will go down one or two, but still remain in the top-10.

Then comes the real shocker: #21 Monmouth over #11 Villanova … by 18 points. And Craig Haley’s item about the game said it “really wasn’t as close as the final score.” I’m betting the pollsters will drop the Wildcat and boost the Hawks enough so Monmouth is ahead by at least one spot, if not more. With Villanova dropping so much, several teams below should nudge up at least one spot.

The next loss by a ranked team, Austin Peay at Abilene Christian, should be more straightforward. Losing to a higher-ranked team usually costs the loser three or four spots, which is what I think will happen in this case.

The next case is a bit different, however: NAU’s win over Incarnate Word. In my mind, UIW has been skating on thin ice all year. And that (1-3) record sticks out like a sore thumb. They could drop a lot, although they will probably stay in the top-25.

Last and least, New Hampshire should drop out of the top-25. Losing a game when you’re #25 pretty well guarantees it.

But who will replace them? The highest “Other Receiving Votes” in the last poll was (somehow) Presbyterian. They just obliterated an NAIA opponent and no way do I see them moving in. Next up is Mercer, and that could happen. But I don’t think it will. That’s partly because Haley’s post-games column gushed about the strong start for the Ivy League in their opening games. By rights, of course, Dartmouth, which beat New Hampshire, should take their place. Trouble is, the Big Green have not received any votes in the previous polls. Meanwhile, Harvard has been cruising along with votes, even without playing any games. I’m thinking the pollsters will move them into that 25th spot.
Click to expand...
I feel that it is just a likely that the voters decide that the NEC if for real, Mercyhurst came out west two weeks in a row and played "THE BEST" that's out here and came away just short as a second year program and that Lehigh could surely have won both. I say this, but when I say it you have to keep in mind that I subscribe to the eastern/southern bias theory.
I would agree on the movement of Monmouth/Villanova, but I said on a couple of threads along with someone else, it would have been an upset for Villanova to beat Monmouth, despite where they were sitting in the polls. The disaster of this outcome is that instead of having Villanova drop out of the playoff field, the eastern bias now gets to elevate Monmouth and we end up with the same results as last year in the playoffs, four CAA teams in with a combined playoff record of 1-4. I have heard a lot of outcries from people in the northeast that they actually want to stop taking up all of the trash that has come in to replace teams like Connecticut and Massachusetts and the like, reform the old Yankee Conference with teams from the northeast and let the rest got to the SoCon and OVC/Big South.
 
Yes, MSU should most definitely drop 1 or 2--17-0 at home over a team in only its second year in The FCS is hardly impressive, especially given the inept and weak 🤔 Shi__y Kitty Offense that was shut out in the second half. !!!
 
If… IF the voting “Idiots” have paid any attention at all - highly doubtful - Moo-U should drop 1 or 2 and the Griz should move into #4, but it’s a B I G IF. Most likely Moo—U doesn’t drop, & everyone sees how idiotic the pollsters truly are.
 
Harm said:
If… IF the voting “Idiots” have paid any attention at all - highly doubtful - Moo-U should drop 1 or 2 and the Griz should move into #4, but it’s a B I G IF. Most likely Moo—U doesn’t drop, & everyone sees how idiotic the pollsters truly are.
Click to expand...
Finally, a fellow voice of reason.
The media voting in the poll are going to look at Mercyhurst's schedule and call it a 17-0 shutout and be done with it.
The real story on Mercyhurst is that their worst loss to date has been Sac State 49-28, they lost at Youngstown State (3-1 from the MVFC) 24-15 and beat New Haven who is a new member of the NEC this year 48-14. They don't have time to watch all these games and see if Bozeman should be ranked higher or lower or where they should actually fall. They are looking at their schedule and calling the Lakers legitimate, particularly the voters in the northeast and mid-Atlantic.
Please don't be disappointed that the rankings don't change, they are only polls, and they mean very little. We will get the real proof on November 22.
 
Hopefully, the bubz will go up or continue to be overrated and not drop. Ideally, they would somehow make it to #1 by the time the brawl rolls around. That never ends well for them.
 
garizzalies said:
Hopefully, the bubz will go up or continue to be overrated and not drop. Ideally, they would somehow make it to #1 by the time the brawl rolls around. That never ends well for them.
Click to expand...
Point well taken. The higher you go in the polls, the larger the target on your back. Not like we can hide anything from conference members, but it's all too well known that the opponents want to play against Montana and at WA-Griz, or at least that's what they say in Spokane every summer.
 
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