IdaGriz01
Well-known member
I was going to post this in an existing thread, but it seems to have turned into a personal pissing contest. In any case, we’ve always had arguments about how worthless early polls are. And I mostly agree, with one big “but wait.”
Let’s begin with the end game. Near the end of the regular season, we all pretty much know who will get the Automatic bids, based just on their strong records in conference. The polls just confirm what we already know: seven of the ten auto-bids for 2024 were in the top-12 of the STATS poll, the other three were not ranked at all (or even close). Same goes for most of the at-large bids, which have lots of wins against decent opponents and have pretty good rankings in the polls. All but one of the 14 at-large teams for 2024 were ranked in the top-25.
It’s that final block of “bubble” bids where the late-year polls can provide some help. Of course, the pollsters do not select the at-large bids. However, the polls (STATS and Coaches) do indicate which lower-level teams are attracting attention. Over the years, I have generally found the late polls to be a reasonable guide to what teams will fill those lower spots. Not 100% reliable, but not bad.
Many pollsters seem to be too busy, or too lazy, to really research their weekly votes. Seems like they just tinker with their existing list based on the latest game results. And that’s where my “but wait” kicks in. Where will those pollsters start? Probably with a pre-season poll. If a team is not on that list, it will take something dramatic – most often a huge upset – to attract the pollsters’ attention. Barring that, you won’t see a lot of movement in the early polls … and that can continue for a long time.
The last two seasons each had fairly representative examples: The Eastern Kentucky Colonels in 2024 and the Richmond Spiders in 2023.
The Spiders were not ranked in the pre-season polls for 2023, and had two early losses (one to an FBS opponent). They then went on a 7-1 run. Yet through all that, the pollsters gave them zero points. Finally, in early November, the pollsters grudgingly gave the Spiders 13 and then 23 votes. One more win finally got them to #22 in the STATS poll … and an at-large bid.
The Colonels were not in the 2024 pre-season polls. They opened with two FBS losses, but then began to win games. Yet it was mid-November before they began receiving votes (just out at #27) and they edged into the top-25 on November 18. That was enough to get them an at-large bid with an (8-4) record, beating out several other 8-win teams. Obviously it was the wins that won the bid, but that poll gave us a hint as to where the committee might go.
Of course, the effect works both ways. Most of us remember fairly recent years when Northern Iowa started out high in the pre-season polls, lost several games, yet stayed in the top-25 all the way into mid-November. Some fans even thought the Panthers might get a bid with a (6-5) record.
So the polls do matter somewhat toward the end, and the pre-season polls do have a residual effect on how the weekly polls trend.
Let’s begin with the end game. Near the end of the regular season, we all pretty much know who will get the Automatic bids, based just on their strong records in conference. The polls just confirm what we already know: seven of the ten auto-bids for 2024 were in the top-12 of the STATS poll, the other three were not ranked at all (or even close). Same goes for most of the at-large bids, which have lots of wins against decent opponents and have pretty good rankings in the polls. All but one of the 14 at-large teams for 2024 were ranked in the top-25.
It’s that final block of “bubble” bids where the late-year polls can provide some help. Of course, the pollsters do not select the at-large bids. However, the polls (STATS and Coaches) do indicate which lower-level teams are attracting attention. Over the years, I have generally found the late polls to be a reasonable guide to what teams will fill those lower spots. Not 100% reliable, but not bad.
Many pollsters seem to be too busy, or too lazy, to really research their weekly votes. Seems like they just tinker with their existing list based on the latest game results. And that’s where my “but wait” kicks in. Where will those pollsters start? Probably with a pre-season poll. If a team is not on that list, it will take something dramatic – most often a huge upset – to attract the pollsters’ attention. Barring that, you won’t see a lot of movement in the early polls … and that can continue for a long time.
The last two seasons each had fairly representative examples: The Eastern Kentucky Colonels in 2024 and the Richmond Spiders in 2023.
The Spiders were not ranked in the pre-season polls for 2023, and had two early losses (one to an FBS opponent). They then went on a 7-1 run. Yet through all that, the pollsters gave them zero points. Finally, in early November, the pollsters grudgingly gave the Spiders 13 and then 23 votes. One more win finally got them to #22 in the STATS poll … and an at-large bid.
The Colonels were not in the 2024 pre-season polls. They opened with two FBS losses, but then began to win games. Yet it was mid-November before they began receiving votes (just out at #27) and they edged into the top-25 on November 18. That was enough to get them an at-large bid with an (8-4) record, beating out several other 8-win teams. Obviously it was the wins that won the bid, but that poll gave us a hint as to where the committee might go.
Of course, the effect works both ways. Most of us remember fairly recent years when Northern Iowa started out high in the pre-season polls, lost several games, yet stayed in the top-25 all the way into mid-November. Some fans even thought the Panthers might get a bid with a (6-5) record.
So the polls do matter somewhat toward the end, and the pre-season polls do have a residual effect on how the weekly polls trend.
