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MBBALL 14 Seed!

GriznMN said:
Altitude effect is a real thing. Remember that when we played at NAU.
Click to expand...

Madison Wi is about 850 ft.

FEET)ALTITUDE
(METERS)		EFFECTIVE
OXYGEN %		SIMILAR
LOCATION
0 - Sea Level0 - Sea Level20.9%Hypoxico HQ, NY
1,00030520.1%Tbilisi, Georgia
2,00061019.4%Canberra, Australia
3,00091418.6%Chamonix, France
4,000121917.9%Salt Lake City, UT
5,000152417.3%Boulder, CO
6,000182916.6%Stanley, ID
7,000213416%Flagstaff, AZ
 
alabamagrizzly said:
Madison Wi is about 850 ft.


FEET)ALTITUDE
(METERS)		EFFECTIVE
OXYGEN %		SIMILAR
LOCATION
0 - Sea Level0 - Sea Level20.9%Hypoxico HQ, NY
1,00030520.1%Tbilisi, Georgia
2,00061019.4%Canberra, Australia
3,00091418.6%Chamonix, France
4,000121917.9%Salt Lake City, UT
5,000152417.3%Boulder, CO
6,000182916.6%Stanley, ID
7,000213416%Flagstaff, AZ
Click to expand...
Not just altitude but the quick turnaround from losing to Michigan today to flying into a new city for a game Thursday.
 
First post here. I’m normally just a lurker. I graduated from both Montana and Wisconsin. I live in Montana but am currently working in Madison. I have followed both teams since the mid 1980s. I’m getting old! I attended 4 Grizz games this year and 7 Badger games. I’ve seen most of each of the teams games I didn’t attend on TV. I know all of you are familar with he Grizz. I assume most of you probably haven’t followed the Badgers as closely as I have so that will be the content of this post. It’ll be a long post. You may have different opinions - that’s fine. These are mine. I’m not going to do much comparing and contrasting as the game will do that and the line gives you a metric of strength from professional bettors who put money on the game. Obviously Wisconsin is a heavy favorite which is typical in a 14-3 matchup.

Wisconsin is a typical Big Ten team. They are big and they are strong. They are also very fast and athletic. They are built to compete in a power conference like the Big Ten. They are an upper classmen led team and start 3 seniors. They also start 2 Sophomores. They play 9 players deep and don’t lose much in using their 4 bench players who play so they are very hard to get in foul trouble. Wisconsin has played in 24 of the last 25 NCAA tournaments and have been to the Final Four 3 times. The last being in 2015 when they beat an undefeated Kentucky team in the semifinals then lost to Duke in the finals. That team was coached by Bo Ryan. Greg Gard, the current coach, was Ryans top assistant and has been the coach for 10 years. He recently passed 200 wins.

This is not a normal slow paced Wisconsin team. They are up tempo but play the very strong aggressive defense Wisconsin is known for. They play a motion/swing offense. They were averaging over 80 points per game and still may be after yesterday - not sure.

Last year Wisconsin lost 3 players to the portal - Hepburn to Louisville, Storr to Kansas, and Essegian to Nebraska. Storr and Hepburn were seen as big losses. Hepburn was a star at Louisville and Storr was just OK at Kansas. Experts picked Wisconsin to finish 10th in the expanded Big Ten. They were totally wrong. Wisconsin got better. They added John Tonje as a grad transfer through the portal from Colorado State who was given a medical red shirt. Tonje has turned out to be the best transfer Portal player in the nation. He has scored over 30 three or four times and racked up 41 against Arizona who the Badgers crushed. He is shooting 91% from the free throw line and he’s there often. The Badgers overall are on track to have the highest free throw percentage in the history of the NCAA as they are shooting right at about 90% as a team for the season. There is a Villanova team of a few years ago that is similar who currently holds that record. Tonje is the leading scorer for Wisconsin. He was a significant upgrade from Storr. Tonje was a unanimous 1st TeamAll Big Ten Selection. He’s an absolute load.

The second leading scorer will vary but is normally John Blackwell who is the point guard. Blackwell is from near Detroit and his Dad Glenn played at Illinois. Blackwell took over from Hepburn at the point and is an upgrade. He is very aggressive to the rim and at times is somewhat reckless. He is fearless and is also a very good 3 point shooter. He is a sophomore.

Wisconsin has 2 seven footers who start. Steven Crowl who is a senior and Nolan Winter who is a sophomore. Both are top notch 3 point shooters but are also very strong inside. They will move away from the basket to screen and pull other big men away from the basket and either shoot a three or roll/cut toward the basket. The only place I have seen them struggle slightly is if they are playing a team with 2 matching 7 footers who are stout - think Zac Edey and Kaufman-Renn at Purdue or Wolf and Goldin at Michigan. Senior Carter Gilmore is 6’10” and will sub either of these big guys. Gilmore is also a 3 pt shooter and is a high energy player. They will also occassionally be subbed by Xavier Amos.

The Quarterback is Senior Max Klesmit from Neenah, Wisconsin. He is strong offensive player who adds a cohesiveness to the flow of the offense. Klesmit was out for 5 games injuried at the end of the season and they missed him and didn’t flow as well. He is now back 100% since the beginning of the Big Ten Tournament.

Other normal rotation players are Xavier Amos a 6’10” forward, 6’0” senior point guard Kamari McGee, and Jack Janicki who can play 1 through 4. Janicki is a freshman.

Wisconsin was, and is, the number 2 team in the Big Ten all year behind Michigan State who they beat last Saturday in the Big Ten Tournament. That was after they knocked out Northwestern on Thursday and a very hot UCLA team on Friday. They were tired on Sunday when they played Michigan and shot the ball poorly. If you have a bad shooting day against Michigan you will lose due to Wolf and Goldin inside. Playing UCLA in the Big Ten Tournament the Badgers made 19 shots from 3 which tied the Big Ten Tourney record. In the regular season Wisconsin made 22 shots from 3 when they beat Iowa and scored 116 points on them.

I see comments here about altitude and Wisconsin being tired from the Big Ten Tournament - Nope! That won’t be a factor. The only losses Wisconsin has this year are in odd situations where they had Klesmit or Winter out and hurt or when playing a 4th game in 4 days like when they played Michigan yesterday.

I had a friend today who picked the Grizz over Wisconsin on his bracket tell me that Montanas record is similar to Wisconsins. Even though my heart is with the Grizz that is sort of a laughable comment. There are no Purdues or Michigan States or Michigans or Illinois or UCLAs or etc in the Big Sky Conference. The conferences both play great basketball but it is like saying that a team from Minot, ND has a record the same as a team from Philadelphia so the teams must be of equal strength.

I’m pulling for the Grizz but they will have to have the mentality of the US Olympic Hockey team against the Russians in 1980. They’ll need to get Wisconsin into very serious foul trouble and hope Tonje and Blackwell are completely off in their shooting in which case the Grizz will need to play even with those 2 seven footers inside. It can be done but it will be very very very difficult!

But …. that is what makes sports fun and memoriable …. When the unexpected happens!

We’ll see!
 
Whirly said:
First post here. I’m normally just a lurker. I graduated from both Montana and Wisconsin. I live in Montana but am currently working in Madison. I have followed both teams since the mid 1980s. I’m getting old! I attended 4 Grizz games this year and 7 Badger games. I’ve seen most of each of the teams games I didn’t attend on TV. I know all of you are familar with he Grizz. I assume most of you probably haven’t followed the Badgers as closely as I have so that will be the content of this post. It’ll be a long post. You may have different opinions - that’s fine. These are mine. I’m not going to do much comparing and contrasting as the game will do that and the line gives you a metric of strength from professional bettors who put money on the game. Obviously Wisconsin is a heavy favorite which is typical in a 14-3 matchup.

Wisconsin is a typical Big Ten team. They are big and they are strong. They are also very fast and athletic. They are built to compete in a power conference like the Big Ten. They are an upper classmen led team and start 3 seniors. They also start 2 Sophomores. They play 9 players deep and don’t lose much in using their 4 bench players who play so they are very hard to get in foul trouble. Wisconsin has played in 24 of the last 25 NCAA tournaments and have been to the Final Four 3 times. The last being in 2015 when they beat an undefeated Kentucky team in the semifinals then lost to Duke in the finals. That team was coached by Bo Ryan. Greg Gard, the current coach, was Ryans top assistant and has been the coach for 10 years. He recently passed 200 wins.

This is not a normal slow paced Wisconsin team. They are up tempo but play the very strong aggressive defense Wisconsin is known for. They play a motion/swing offense. They were averaging over 80 points per game and still may be after yesterday - not sure.

Last year Wisconsin lost 3 players to the portal - Hepburn to Louisville, Storr to Kansas, and Essegian to Nebraska. Storr and Hepburn were seen as big losses. Hepburn was a star at Louisville and Storr was just OK at Kansas. Experts picked Wisconsin to finish 10th in the expanded Big Ten. They were totally wrong. Wisconsin got better. They added John Tonje as a grad transfer through the portal from Colorado State who was given a medical red shirt. Tonje has turned out to be the best transfer Portal player in the nation. He has scored over 30 three or four times and racked up 41 against Arizona who the Badgers crushed. He is shooting 91% from the free throw line and he’s there often. The Badgers overall are on track to have the highest free throw percentage in the history of the NCAA as they are shooting right at about 90% as a team for the season. There is a Villanova team of a few years ago that is similar who currently holds that record. Tonje is the leading scorer for Wisconsin. He was a significant upgrade from Storr. Tonje was a unanimous 1st TeamAll Big Ten Selection. He’s an absolute load.

The second leading scorer will vary but is normally John Blackwell who is the point guard. Blackwell is from near Detroit and his Dad Glenn played at Illinois. Blackwell took over from Hepburn at the point and is an upgrade. He is very aggressive to the rim and at times is somewhat reckless. He is fearless and is also a very good 3 point shooter. He is a sophomore.

Wisconsin has 2 seven footers who start. Steven Crowl who is a senior and Nolan Winter who is a sophomore. Both are top notch 3 point shooters but are also very strong inside. They will move away from the basket to screen and pull other big men away from the basket and either shoot a three or roll/cut toward the basket. The only place I have seen them struggle slightly is if they are playing a team with 2 matching 7 footers who are stout - think Zac Edey and Kaufman-Renn at Purdue or Wolf and Goldin at Michigan. Senior Carter Gilmore is 6’10” and will sub either of these big guys. Gilmore is also a 3 pt shooter and is a high energy player. They will also occassionally be subbed by Xavier Amos.

The Quarterback is Senior Max Klesmit from Neenah, Wisconsin. He is strong offensive player who adds a cohesiveness to the flow of the offense. Klesmit was out for 5 games injuried at the end of the season and they missed him and didn’t flow as well. He is now back 100% since the beginning of the Big Ten Tournament.

Other normal rotation players are Xavier Amos a 6’10” forward, 6’0” senior point guard Kamari McGee, and Jack Janicki who can play 1 through 4. Janicki is a freshman.

Wisconsin was, and is, the number 2 team in the Big Ten all year behind Michigan State who they beat last Saturday in the Big Ten Tournament. That was after they knocked out Northwestern on Thursday and a very hot UCLA team on Friday. They were tired on Sunday when they played Michigan and shot the ball poorly. If you have a bad shooting day against Michigan you will lose due to Wolf and Goldin inside. Playing UCLA in the Big Ten Tournament the Badgers made 19 shots from 3 which tied the Big Ten Tourney record. In the regular season Wisconsin made 22 shots from 3 when they beat Iowa and scored 116 points on them.

I see comments here about altitude and Wisconsin being tired from the Big Ten Tournament - Nope! That won’t be a factor. The only losses Wisconsin has this year are in odd situations where they had Klesmit or Winter out and hurt or when playing a 4th game in 4 days like when they played Michigan yesterday.

I had a friend today who picked the Grizz over Wisconsin on his bracket tell me that Montanas record is similar to Wisconsins. Even though my heart is with the Grizz that is sort of a laughable comment. There are no Purdues or Michigan States or Michigans or Illinois or UCLAs or etc in the Big Sky Conference. The conferences both play great basketball but it is like saying that a team from Minot, ND has a record the same as a team from Philadelphia so the teams must be of equal strength.

I’m pulling for the Grizz but they will have to have the mentality of the US Olympic Hockey team against the Russians in 1980. They’ll need to get Wisconsin into very serious foul trouble and hope Tonje and Blackwell are completely off in their shooting in which case the Grizz will need to play even with those 2 seven footers inside. It can be done but it will be very very very difficult!

But …. that is what makes sports fun and memoriable …. When the unexpected happens!

We’ll see!
Click to expand...
That high and mighty Purdue program lost to Farliegh Dickinson and Michigan State lost to Middle Tennessee recently in their first game of the tournament.
 
5280Griz said:
That high and mighty Purdue program lost to Farliegh Dickinson and Michigan State lost to Middle Tennessee recently in their first game of the tournament.
Click to expand...
…. AND 2 times a 1 lost to a 16. Very rare but it happens.

21 times a 3 seed has lost to a 14 seed out of 340 games which is 6.2% which is approximately a 1 in 16 chance.
 
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You couldn’t ask for much better of a position for the Griz. Wisconsin was going to be a 4 or 5 seed if they didn’t beat MSU in the Big 10 Tournament and a team from the Big Sky is not going to get a seed like 10 or better. 14 is pretty good for the Big Sky the bubs recently were a play in game 16 seed.
 
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5280Griz said:
You couldn’t ask for much better of a position from the Griz. Wisconsin was going to be a 4 or 5 seed if they didn’t beat MSU in the Big 10 Tournament and a team from the Big Sky is not going to get a seed like 10 or better. 14 is pretty good for the Big Sky the Bubs recently were a play in game 16 seed.
Click to expand...
Actually, that is not correct. Even prior to the tournament MSU was a lock at a 2 and Wisconsin was a lock as a 3 UNLESS they lost to Northwestern which was a longshot in which case they may have slipped to a 4 which was still very unlikely. That was explained by the tournament chairman around the conversation of where Michigan ended up. If they lose to the regular season champion MSU they are still a 3. Up until Klesmit got hurt they sat squarely on the 2/3 line with a #8 ranking. Didn’t happen. Injuries happen. If you think Wisconsin is a good draw as a number 3 seed for the Grizz you’d be mistaken. The Grizz would have been much better off playing Iowa State as Gilbert is hurt or Kentucky who was just destroyed by Alabama by 30 and barely beat a bottom feeder in Oklahoma by 1. I’m not going to debate this stuff with anyone. As mentioned I follow both teams closely and have zero emotion connected to what I posted. I like both teams. The results will be the results no matter what you and I think. Bottomline - Wisconsin is a 3 for reason and Montana is a 14 for a reason.
 
Whirly said:
Actually, that is not correct. Even prior to the tournament MSU was a lock at a 2 and Wisconsin was a lock as a 3 UNLESS they lost to Northwestern which was a longshot in which case they may have slipped to a 4 which was still very unlikely. That was explained by the tournament chairman around the conversation of where Michigan ended up. If they lose to the regular season champion MSU they are still a 3. Up until Klesmit got hurt they sat squarely on the 2/3 line with a #8 ranking. Didn’t happen. Injuries happen. If you think Wisconsin is a good draw as a number 3 seed for the Grizz you’d be mistaken. The Grizz would have been much better off playing Iowa State as Gilbert is hurt or Kentucky who was just destroyed by Alabama by 30 and barely beat a bottom feeder in Oklahoma by 1. I’m not going to debate this stuff with anyone. As mentioned I follow both teams closely and have zero emotion connected to what I posted. I like both teams. The results will be the results no matter what you and I think. Bottomline - Wisconsin is a 3 for reason and Montana is a 14 for a reason.
Click to expand...
Wisconsin was ranked 18 in the polls going into the Big 10 tournament which they were the 5th seed. 18th says they would have been a 5 seed not taking into account the Big 10 Tournament.
 
5280Griz said:
Wisconsin was ranked 18 in the polls going into the Big 10 tournament which they were the 5th seed. 18th says they would have been a 5 seed not taking into account the Big 10 Tournament.
Click to expand...
That’s not how seedings in the tournament work. That is a general guide and nothing more. The tournament seedings are based on NET, KenPom, Torvik, BPI, Strength of Record, KPI and WAB. This year WAB took more precidence than past years. A simple example is that Duke was the #1 ranked team but Auburn was defined as the #1 overall seed in the tournament even though Auburn lost 3 of its last 4 games. This applies all through the brackets. This is why Michigan as an example beat Wisconsin twice but is a 5 seed whereas Wisconsin is a 3 seed. It’s why Missouri was the 23rd ranked team but ended up a 6th seed. Rankings only apply to the #1 seeds and only loosely there. Polls are based on voted by people not on the committee and only on quad segregated wins. Seeding is based on metrics and “discussion” using those metrics as the main guide. You can’t look at Montana and say they would be the 70th ranked team based on a 14th seed. There are many teams stronger than 10 through 16 seeds who aren’t even in the tournament.

Lastly, Going into the Big Ten Tourney the rankings had Wisconsin at 18 and MSU at 8. You indicate that this would put Wisconsin at 5 seed and MSU at a 2 seed and Wisconsin only moves to 3 if they beat MSU. Nope. If that was true and MSU got beat by Wisconsin (which they did) then Wisconsin would move up in the polls (to what you say was to a 3 seed) but also MSU would move down out of a 2 seed. That obviously didn’t happen. MSU was a 2 seed if they won or if they lost. The polls in the regular season would drop MSU to 10 or 11 or 12 with a loss to Wisconsin but MSU was still a 2. Another easy way to see this is to take a look at Joe Lunardi’s projected brackets from 2 and 3 weeks ago and see he has MSU as a 2 seed and Wisconsin as a 3 seed. Lunardi uses the same metrics as the seeding committee but without the committee’s ability to move a team up and down based on perception.
 
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