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MBBALL Big Sky Crunch Time

IdaGriz01

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Right now, ursines (Griz and the NoCol Bears) have separated themselves from the rest of the Big Sky. However, as the saying goes, “there’s still plenty of basketball to be played.” So I wondered what the rest of the season looked like, focusing on the top five teams. Here’s what you get, with the string of opponents and their cumulative conference records in parentheses.

NoColo . . . @ Sac, @ PSU, EWU, Ida, @ NAU, @ WSU (27-42)
Griz . . . ISU, WSU, @ MSU, @ Sac, @ PSU, EWU (27-41)
PSU . . . NAU, NoCol, @ ISU, @ WSU, MSU, UM, Sac (41-40)
ISU . . . @ UM, @ MSU, PSU, Sac, @ Ida, @ EWU, NAU (39-43)
Idaho . . . @ EWU. @ NAU, @ NoCol, ISU, WSU, @ MSU (34-36)

Northern Colorado and Montana find themselves with remarkably similar end-games, except that the Bears have four games on the road. The Griz problem may come during the stretch of three straight road games.

Portland State has a rough-looking end-game. However, they have the advantage that five of their remaining games are at home … including those against the Griz and Bears. If they were to get hot at the right (wrong) time, they could definitely make some noise.

Flip that for Idaho State, which faces some strong opponents and has four road games. Worse yet for Idaho because they’re headed into a three-game road trip ending at NoColo.

If the Griz keep playing like they have in the past several games, we’ll all be happy campers. But there no guarantees, so it’s hardly clear sailing from here. Luckily, those chasing the Griz have their own problems. Aside from the potential threat posed by the Vikings … I like our chances.
 
Four of the five Big Sky contenders are in action Thursday:
NAU (5-7) at PSU (6-5)
NoCol (10-2) at Sac (2-9)
ISU (6-5) at Mont (10-2)

Who knows what NAU will do? They might upset the Vikes, but I’m not getting my hopes up. And, even though they’re on the road, the Bears should cruise. So … not much chance of any drama in either case.

It just remains for the Griz to take care of business. Don’t overlook the Bengals, and bump them down another notch.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Four of the five Big Sky contenders are in action Thursday:
NAU (5-7) at PSU (6-5)
NoCol (10-2) at Sac (2-9)
ISU (6-5) at Mont (10-2)

Who knows what NAU will do? They might upset the Vikes, but I’m not getting my hopes up. And, even though they’re on the road, the Bears should cruise. So … not much chance of any drama in either case.

It just remains for the Griz to take care of business. Don’t overlook the Bengals, and bump them down another notch.
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That UNC vs. PSU game on Thursday I think will be really interesting. I think it was like a 2 point game in Greeley last month and PSU is very good at home. I think the Viks might pull the upset!
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1889726189989970366
This was posted today. Looks like UNC currently holds the tiebreaker over us for the 1 seed. I don't know this for sure, but I'm assuming the tiebreaker is overall record, in which case they got us by a game. I'm very interested to see their game at PSU on Saturday. The Viks are very good at home and should've beat them in Greeley. Griz gotta protect home court this week though. ISU is gonna play inspired tomorrow.
 
Griz til I die said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1889726189989970366
This was posted today. Looks like UNC currently holds the tiebreaker over us for the 1 seed. I don't know this for sure, but I'm assuming the tiebreaker is overall record, in which case they got us by a game. I'm very interested to see their game at PSU on Saturday. The Viks are very good at home and should've beat them in Greeley. Griz gotta protect home court this week though. ISU is gonna play inspired tomorrow.
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UNC would hold the tiebreaker over us due to their win over ISU. Griz really need to beat ISU this week.
 
Thanks, GTID, for the time and hard work that you out into mapping out the remaining Big Sky schedule, home vs. road, W-L records, and potential seeding scenarios for Boise !!!
 
And thanks IdaGriz: Ylou started this thread and your time, effort. and painstaking analysis of who plays who, records, home or away is invaluable !!!

Before reading your analysis, I knew we played Idaho State @ home, The Shi##y Kitties on the road, and we have an upcoming game sometime on ESPN vs. Eastern.

And now I know precise dates, records, home or away, etc. I am definitely more informed and now know what not only the GRIZ 's remaining games are, but also what the other 4 top Big Sky teams face the rest of the regular season !!!

Go GRIZ !!!
 
ISUguy said:
UNC has swept ISU so a win over ISU won’t cure that tiebreaker for the Griz.
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Still need to beat ISU or any other team because a loss would make it more difficult to earn first place since UNC would have to lose twice instead of just once.
 
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Update, Feb 14

No surprises or upsets in the Big Sky yesterday. The Griz took care of business, but so did Portland State, leaving the top spreads unchanged. Of course, the Bengal’s loss opened another game between those three and the #4 spot. On the other hand, I added the kitties to the list of 6-win teams, since they could win through to that position.

NoColo (11-2) . . . @ PSU, EWU, Ida, @ NAU, @ WSU (26-35)
Griz (11-2) . . . WSU, @ MSU, @ Sac, @ PSU, EWU (23-38)
PSU (7-5) . . . NoCol, @ ISU, @ WSU, MSU, UM, Sac (39-36)
ISU (6-6) . . . @ MSU, PSU, Sac, @ Ida, @ EWU, NAU (31-41)
Idaho (6-6) . . . @ EWU, @ NAU, @ NoCol, ISU, WSU, @ MSU (36-39)
MSU (6-7) . . . ISU, Griz, @ PSU, @ Sac, Ida (32-29)

The inclusion of MSU highlights the fact that their game tomorrow will knock the loser out of the #4 spot. At the same time, Idaho must win at EWU to keep pace.

The Griz, of course, again need to take care of business at home … not a given, since Weber, despite their sad record, has pulled off some surprise wins.

But the “big game” of the moment is the UNC Bears at Portland State. If the Vikes manage the upset – and I think they have a decent chance – the Griz could move into first place in the Sky. Not counting my chickens because “there’s plenty of basketball still to be played.”
 
Yeah, that psu/noco game is huge for a number of reasons. Obviously it would be nice to get noco another loss, but also it could be huge from a tiebreak perspective.
 
Griz need to win all games against the various different types of Cats. both today and next week. Today against the Wildcats just to stay ahead of NoCo by a game, but next week have to beat the Bobcats to keep NoCo from having another tie breaker against the Griz.
 
TrueGriz said:
Griz need to win all games against the various different types of Cats. both today and next week. Today against the Wildcats just to stay ahead of NoCo by a game, but next week have to beat the Bobcats to keep NoCo from having another tie breaker against the Griz.
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I doubt the tiebreaker will get all the way down the cats, but that game is important, of course. More so the psu game, though. Win that and the GRIZ are in great shape.
 
Just noticed that EWU did the Griz a small favor by knocking off Idaho, giving them 7 losses (with 6 wins). That means the winner of the ISU-MSU game (ISU currently leading ... slightly) would be the only 7-win contender for that 4th spot.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Just noticed that EWU did the Griz a small favor by knocking off Idaho, giving them 7 losses (with 6 wins). That means the winner of the ISU-MSU game (ISU currently leading ... slightly) would be the only 7-win contender for that 4th spot.
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How is that doing griz a favor. If Idaho won and MSU won griz would have a tiebreaker over NoCo.
 
TrueGriz said:
How is that doing griz a favor. If Idaho won and MSU won griz would have a tiebreaker over NoCo.
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With four conference games left for the Griz, I'm looking more at separation from the field. With both Idaho and ISU losing, there's only one lower-level contender with 7 wins. It happens to be MSU, but they also already have 7 losses.
 
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