The Grizzlies are moving on to the round of 16 in the FCS playoffs and now head to Brookings South Dakota in a rematch of last years title game. South Dakota State is the 3 seed in the playoffs with only a loss at Oklahoma State and a close loss at NDSU. This promises to be a challenge nearly as big as the Griz have seen this entire season and a near perfect game will be needed from Montana.
Pulling up the MVFC stats, here’s some key rankings for the Jackrabbits:
South Dakota State Jackrabbits 10-2
20-44 loss @ Oklahoma State – Looking at the box score it’s surprising it was such a lop sided score. SDSU had 388 total yards, OSU had 394. SDSU did lose 1 interception, I do see they had 4 turnovers on downs, but only 1 earlier in the game. OSU kicked a handful of really long field goals in the game. OSU on the season is 3-9 and have lost 9 in a row now.
45-24 win vs Incarnate Word – The winner of Griz v Rabbits might face Incarnate Word in the next round (UIW hosts Villanova). SDSU gradually outpaced IW as the game went on and then slammed the door shut in the 4th, scoring the last 14 points and turning IW’s last two drives into turnovers. IW’s pass heavy offense got their yards in the air (351), but couldn’t rush much, and on the other side of the ball SDSU had a balanced 510 total yards of offense, they held the ball for over 35:00 of TOP and went 10 for 13 on 3rd down.
24-3 win vs Augustana – I had no clue who Augustana was/is – they’re a D2 school and lost last weekend in the first round of the D2 playoffs. SDSU ran for 233, passed for 141, and held Augustana to just 171 total yards. A bit of a sloppy game in the box score for SDSU. 2 lost interceptions, 1 turnover on downs, and two early drives that were quick and ended in punts.
41-0 win vs SE Louisiana – SDSU just went full ground and pound, nearly 350 rushing yards to just 76 passing yards. They held SLU to just 186 yards, forced 2 picks, and controlled the game the whole way.
41-3 win @ N. Iowa – SDSU in this 41 point showing went more to the air, passing for just about 250, and adding another 140 rushing. UNI was also shut out pretty bad, just 245 yards of offense and 4 lost turnovers.
63-13 win vs Youngstown State – 404 rushing yards and an average of 16.2 yards per carry for the Jackrabbits, wow. The game opened with a kick return TD and SDSU never looked back.
9-13 loss @ North Dakota State – I watched this game with the GFP guys, total grudge match of two great defenses. In this game SDSU would answer an early NDSU TD with one of their own – but the extra point gets blocked. SDSU takes the lead at the half with a field goal, it’s 9-7. The 2nd half for a long time was a sleeper, 7 consecutive possessions ending with a punt, and as best I can tell just 3 or 4 first downs total by both teams over that run. In the 4th though, NDSU finally got a drive rolling, on the arm of Cam Miller they would find the endzone and take the lead with a then failed 2 point conversion. SDSU with the ball back and just 1:45 to go would get close to mid-field, but NDSU would pick off Gronowski to seal the win. SDSU would actually outgain the Bison 333-275, they had 215 of that on the ground.
20-17 OT win vs South Dakota – USD almost pulled off the upset, they had a chance to kick a game winner as time expired but missed a 46 yarder and the game would go to OT. USD would kick a field goal in OT, SDSU would find the endzone with a typical grind-out style and escape with a close call win at home. Another game with not a lot of yards on either side. SDSU had 330, USD had 275. It was a wild finish though, USD in the 4th throws a red zone pick on the SDSU 10, the next play USD punches out a ball and scoops and scores to set the game to 14-14 with 4:30 left – their next possession would be the missed field goal in regulation.
52-6 win vs Murray State – Almost 600 yards for SDSU with 350 of it coming on the ground. A nice relaxing win after the last two games.
38-7 win @ North Dakota – Bucking the trend that UND gets big wins at home, they didn’t pull that off here. SDSU had a major 2nd quarter, scoring 28 points, 3 of them over 25 yards. UND’s rushing offense was held to just 124 yards and their offense only converted 2 third downs the whole game.
41-10 win vs S. Illinois – SDSU’s 3rd game this season scoring 41 points. It was 31-0 at the half. SDSU ran for almost 300 and passed for 215. SIU’s first two possessions ended in turnovers on downs, they also lost 2 interceptions.
45-9 win @ Missouri State – The SDSU defense absolutely shut out the MSU ground game, holding them to 34 yards on 26 attempts. Missouri State could’ve been in this game a little more but had 3 early consecutive drives end in field goals instead of TDs.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game GRIZ (214 for GRIZ vs 199 for SDSU)
Rushing yards per game SDSU (205 for GRIZ vs 243 for SDSU)
Total offense SDSU (419 for GRIZ vs 442 for SDSU)
Passing yards allowed per game SDSU (214 for GRIZ vs 182 for SDSU)
Rushing yards allowed per game SDSU (140 for GRIZ vs 91 for SDSU)
Total defense SDSU (355 for GRIZ vs 273 for SDSU)
Griz passing game gets their lone point, SDSU gets the rest, 1-5 in favor of the Jackrabbits
Offense points scored SDSU (34.5 for GRIZ vs 36.6 for SDSU)
Defense points allowed SDSU (24.1 for GRIZ vs 12.4 for SDSU)
Turnover margin SDSU (+5 for GRIZ / +8 for SDSU)
Field goal % GRIZ (73% for GRIZ vs 67% for SDSU)
Punt Returns GRIZ (19 yards for GRIZ vs 16 yards for SDSU)
Kick Returns GRIZ (22.5 yards for GRIZ vs 16 yards for SDSU)
T.O.P. SDSU (29:40 for GRIZ vs 31:02 for SDSU)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) SDSU (57% GRIZ / 34.7% SDSU)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) SDSU (67% GRIZ / 69% SDSU)
3rd down offense SDSU – (42.2% for GRIZ / 50.7% for SDSU)
3rd down defense SDSU – (36.8% allowed for GRIZ vs 28.1% allowed for SDSU)
SDSU adds a lot more – save the special teams categories. They add 8 while Montana gets just 3. That total puts the points at 13-4 in favor of SDSU.
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South Dakota State Players to Watch:
#11 Mark Gronowski, QB: Yeah we know this dude. He’s yet again a Payton finalist, but interestingly he’s not getting much draft talk yet. This year Mark’s thrown a few more picks (6 in the regular season, where he threw 5 in all of last season + post season). He’s averaging 182.5 passing yards per game (down about 20 ypg from last year) and his rushing numbers are lower too, he’s got 309 on the ground and 5 rushing TDs. Last year (including post season) he had 402 rushing and 8 TDs.
#3 Amar Johnson, RB: Johnson has taken over as the workhorse RB, he did have 50 against Montana in the title game last year. This year, the 5-10, 205 pound running back has 910 rushing yards / 13 rushing TDs. He’s also the 3rd best receiver, statistically, with 187 yards receiving and 1 receiving TD.
#18 Griffin Wilde, WR: Wilde has 900 receiving yards, the 2nd highest thrown to target has 346. This guy is their biggest threat in the game. He’s got a team high 8 receiving TDs as well, he’s a big target at 6-2, 200 pounds
#32 Adam Bock, LB: A first team all-conference selection Bock leads the Jackrabbits with 75 tackles, he has a team high 8 TFLs and is tied for the team best 3 sacks. He has 1 interception and 1 forced fumble as well.
#52 Jarod DePriest, DT: A 285 pound nose this guy is their Gubner this year. A disruptive force in the middle of the field. He’s got 25 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, and has forced 2 fumbles and recovered 1.
#23 Matthrew Durrance, S: This defense spreads stats / tackles around so much it’s hard to grab just a few. He’s a big 6-2, 220 pound safety. He’s got 51 tackles and 2 TFLs, 2 INTs, a team high 3 PBU’s and 1 fumble recovery.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
Unlike where my fandom and hope for a win boiled over in my cat game pick, I’m not doing that in this one. There’s clearly 4 teams that are head and shoulders above everyone else and they are MSU, NDSU, SDSU, and USD. This defense is unlike anything Montana has faced yet and with our total fallout at the QB position this will most likely be a long day in Brookings.
Montana will fight hard, especially defensively, but in the end I think Montana’s offense is going to just hit a brick wall and once again the defense will get worn down. I’ll say the final ends up 38-10 in favor of South Dakota State
Go Griz!
Pulling up the MVFC stats, here’s some key rankings for the Jackrabbits:
- 3rd in scoring offense / 1st in scoring defense
- 1st in total offense / 1st in total defense
- 1st in rushing offense / 1st in rushing defense
- 6th in passing offense / 2nd in passing defense
- 1st in punt returns
- Fewest amount of sacks allowed
- 2nd best 3rd down offense / the best 3rd down defense
- 2nd best RZ offense and RZ defense – their defense has only allowed 8 RZ touchdowns
South Dakota State Jackrabbits 10-2
20-44 loss @ Oklahoma State – Looking at the box score it’s surprising it was such a lop sided score. SDSU had 388 total yards, OSU had 394. SDSU did lose 1 interception, I do see they had 4 turnovers on downs, but only 1 earlier in the game. OSU kicked a handful of really long field goals in the game. OSU on the season is 3-9 and have lost 9 in a row now.
45-24 win vs Incarnate Word – The winner of Griz v Rabbits might face Incarnate Word in the next round (UIW hosts Villanova). SDSU gradually outpaced IW as the game went on and then slammed the door shut in the 4th, scoring the last 14 points and turning IW’s last two drives into turnovers. IW’s pass heavy offense got their yards in the air (351), but couldn’t rush much, and on the other side of the ball SDSU had a balanced 510 total yards of offense, they held the ball for over 35:00 of TOP and went 10 for 13 on 3rd down.
24-3 win vs Augustana – I had no clue who Augustana was/is – they’re a D2 school and lost last weekend in the first round of the D2 playoffs. SDSU ran for 233, passed for 141, and held Augustana to just 171 total yards. A bit of a sloppy game in the box score for SDSU. 2 lost interceptions, 1 turnover on downs, and two early drives that were quick and ended in punts.
41-0 win vs SE Louisiana – SDSU just went full ground and pound, nearly 350 rushing yards to just 76 passing yards. They held SLU to just 186 yards, forced 2 picks, and controlled the game the whole way.
41-3 win @ N. Iowa – SDSU in this 41 point showing went more to the air, passing for just about 250, and adding another 140 rushing. UNI was also shut out pretty bad, just 245 yards of offense and 4 lost turnovers.
63-13 win vs Youngstown State – 404 rushing yards and an average of 16.2 yards per carry for the Jackrabbits, wow. The game opened with a kick return TD and SDSU never looked back.
9-13 loss @ North Dakota State – I watched this game with the GFP guys, total grudge match of two great defenses. In this game SDSU would answer an early NDSU TD with one of their own – but the extra point gets blocked. SDSU takes the lead at the half with a field goal, it’s 9-7. The 2nd half for a long time was a sleeper, 7 consecutive possessions ending with a punt, and as best I can tell just 3 or 4 first downs total by both teams over that run. In the 4th though, NDSU finally got a drive rolling, on the arm of Cam Miller they would find the endzone and take the lead with a then failed 2 point conversion. SDSU with the ball back and just 1:45 to go would get close to mid-field, but NDSU would pick off Gronowski to seal the win. SDSU would actually outgain the Bison 333-275, they had 215 of that on the ground.
20-17 OT win vs South Dakota – USD almost pulled off the upset, they had a chance to kick a game winner as time expired but missed a 46 yarder and the game would go to OT. USD would kick a field goal in OT, SDSU would find the endzone with a typical grind-out style and escape with a close call win at home. Another game with not a lot of yards on either side. SDSU had 330, USD had 275. It was a wild finish though, USD in the 4th throws a red zone pick on the SDSU 10, the next play USD punches out a ball and scoops and scores to set the game to 14-14 with 4:30 left – their next possession would be the missed field goal in regulation.
52-6 win vs Murray State – Almost 600 yards for SDSU with 350 of it coming on the ground. A nice relaxing win after the last two games.
38-7 win @ North Dakota – Bucking the trend that UND gets big wins at home, they didn’t pull that off here. SDSU had a major 2nd quarter, scoring 28 points, 3 of them over 25 yards. UND’s rushing offense was held to just 124 yards and their offense only converted 2 third downs the whole game.
41-10 win vs S. Illinois – SDSU’s 3rd game this season scoring 41 points. It was 31-0 at the half. SDSU ran for almost 300 and passed for 215. SIU’s first two possessions ended in turnovers on downs, they also lost 2 interceptions.
45-9 win @ Missouri State – The SDSU defense absolutely shut out the MSU ground game, holding them to 34 yards on 26 attempts. Missouri State could’ve been in this game a little more but had 3 early consecutive drives end in field goals instead of TDs.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game GRIZ (214 for GRIZ vs 199 for SDSU)
Rushing yards per game SDSU (205 for GRIZ vs 243 for SDSU)
Total offense SDSU (419 for GRIZ vs 442 for SDSU)
Passing yards allowed per game SDSU (214 for GRIZ vs 182 for SDSU)
Rushing yards allowed per game SDSU (140 for GRIZ vs 91 for SDSU)
Total defense SDSU (355 for GRIZ vs 273 for SDSU)
Griz passing game gets their lone point, SDSU gets the rest, 1-5 in favor of the Jackrabbits
Offense points scored SDSU (34.5 for GRIZ vs 36.6 for SDSU)
Defense points allowed SDSU (24.1 for GRIZ vs 12.4 for SDSU)
Turnover margin SDSU (+5 for GRIZ / +8 for SDSU)
Field goal % GRIZ (73% for GRIZ vs 67% for SDSU)
Punt Returns GRIZ (19 yards for GRIZ vs 16 yards for SDSU)
Kick Returns GRIZ (22.5 yards for GRIZ vs 16 yards for SDSU)
T.O.P. SDSU (29:40 for GRIZ vs 31:02 for SDSU)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) SDSU (57% GRIZ / 34.7% SDSU)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) SDSU (67% GRIZ / 69% SDSU)
3rd down offense SDSU – (42.2% for GRIZ / 50.7% for SDSU)
3rd down defense SDSU – (36.8% allowed for GRIZ vs 28.1% allowed for SDSU)
SDSU adds a lot more – save the special teams categories. They add 8 while Montana gets just 3. That total puts the points at 13-4 in favor of SDSU.
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South Dakota State Players to Watch:
#11 Mark Gronowski, QB: Yeah we know this dude. He’s yet again a Payton finalist, but interestingly he’s not getting much draft talk yet. This year Mark’s thrown a few more picks (6 in the regular season, where he threw 5 in all of last season + post season). He’s averaging 182.5 passing yards per game (down about 20 ypg from last year) and his rushing numbers are lower too, he’s got 309 on the ground and 5 rushing TDs. Last year (including post season) he had 402 rushing and 8 TDs.
#3 Amar Johnson, RB: Johnson has taken over as the workhorse RB, he did have 50 against Montana in the title game last year. This year, the 5-10, 205 pound running back has 910 rushing yards / 13 rushing TDs. He’s also the 3rd best receiver, statistically, with 187 yards receiving and 1 receiving TD.
#18 Griffin Wilde, WR: Wilde has 900 receiving yards, the 2nd highest thrown to target has 346. This guy is their biggest threat in the game. He’s got a team high 8 receiving TDs as well, he’s a big target at 6-2, 200 pounds
#32 Adam Bock, LB: A first team all-conference selection Bock leads the Jackrabbits with 75 tackles, he has a team high 8 TFLs and is tied for the team best 3 sacks. He has 1 interception and 1 forced fumble as well.
#52 Jarod DePriest, DT: A 285 pound nose this guy is their Gubner this year. A disruptive force in the middle of the field. He’s got 25 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, and has forced 2 fumbles and recovered 1.
#23 Matthrew Durrance, S: This defense spreads stats / tackles around so much it’s hard to grab just a few. He’s a big 6-2, 220 pound safety. He’s got 51 tackles and 2 TFLs, 2 INTs, a team high 3 PBU’s and 1 fumble recovery.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
- The offense has to have an unreal game – And they only have to do it against statistically one of the very best defenses in the FCS. If I pull SDSU’s games against Ok St, IW, NDSU, USD, and Missouri State their offense was held somewhat in check, averaging just about 28 ppg. The Grizzly offense has to find a way to get into the 30’s to be in this game.
- Special teams has to do as much, if not more, than they did against TSU. One area of slight advantage for Montana (although SDSU has a dangerous returner themselves), but if Montana can flip the field, add scores, and make long kicks… who knows.
- Positive turnover margin. Montana was negative against TSU, can’t do that again. They’ll need to force a few picks from Gronowski and turn those into points. He’s slightly more penchant to turnovers this year, but only by a small margin. Can the Griz force some errors?
- Stop the run. Look, I know it’s easy to say and probably very difficult to do, but that’s what Montana has to do to win this game. SDSU cannot beat them on the ground too much.
- RZ trips must end in TDs. I’m almost of the mind to not take the points if it’s less than 4th and 4 even once the team is in the red zone. TDs are so important in this game.
Unlike where my fandom and hope for a win boiled over in my cat game pick, I’m not doing that in this one. There’s clearly 4 teams that are head and shoulders above everyone else and they are MSU, NDSU, SDSU, and USD. This defense is unlike anything Montana has faced yet and with our total fallout at the QB position this will most likely be a long day in Brookings.
Montana will fight hard, especially defensively, but in the end I think Montana’s offense is going to just hit a brick wall and once again the defense will get worn down. I’ll say the final ends up 38-10 in favor of South Dakota State
Go Griz!
