Just a few thoughts on how I think the game plan should be against the cats this week. Since I don't know a lot about football some of you experts can correct me. Cat/Griz is so exciting and both teams always have a lot to play for. Bragging rights mean a lot to both fan bases.
I don't like betting point spreads. Teams play so much differently if they are behind or ahead so they become meaningless as far as judging outcomes. I like to think in terms of numer of games won if they played head to head 100 times. Since they have played a SOS that is roughly equal, (slight edge to the cats in Massey and slight edge to the griz in sagarin we'll call it a wash) So we can compare the teams statistically. So we'll give the bobcat defense a slight edge and the offense and special teams will be a wash.. So for the sake of argument let's say that the bobcats because of their slightly better defense and home field advantage they would win 65 out of 100 games head to head.
Here is how I think the pre-season champs can make that 35% odds happen and beat the actual BSC champs.
On defense I love the 3-3-5 the griz run. The conventional wisdom here is that it is not good against the run. I totally disagree and especially think it's good against the outside zone read the cats run. Also the griz have had some success the last few games running predominately zone defense but that is not how they can beat the cats. The griz need to play heavy in the box and play man coverage. Also we have to just play side to side gap responsibility defense. Very few twisting stunts like they normally do. If they sit in zone cover 2, the cats will run the ball 8-10 yards a clip. If they do a lot of twisting stunts Tommy will exploit that most times. Make Tommy commit to the second option always and make him throw it. The griz will certainly get burned a bit doing this but it's the best chance to get the most stops.
The offense needs to start fast and not let up, they need Fife to be clicking. He seems to be seeing the field very well right now and can hit the open guy very accurately. A steady dose of quick slants, seam routes and TE over the middle. Very few low percentage fades or long developing down field routes, Enough Gilman and Osmo touches to keep them honest. The cats run a 4-2-5 defense. The DE's are good pass rushers and the tackles are good run stoppers. The DL is deep so there is no chance of wearing them down. The LB's are thin now, not super fast but good players and great tacklers. The corners and safeties are great pursuit run stopping tacklers but not so great in coverage.
Just one fan's opinion on how the griz can win
this one.
I don't like betting point spreads. Teams play so much differently if they are behind or ahead so they become meaningless as far as judging outcomes. I like to think in terms of numer of games won if they played head to head 100 times. Since they have played a SOS that is roughly equal, (slight edge to the cats in Massey and slight edge to the griz in sagarin we'll call it a wash) So we can compare the teams statistically. So we'll give the bobcat defense a slight edge and the offense and special teams will be a wash.. So for the sake of argument let's say that the bobcats because of their slightly better defense and home field advantage they would win 65 out of 100 games head to head.
Here is how I think the pre-season champs can make that 35% odds happen and beat the actual BSC champs.
On defense I love the 3-3-5 the griz run. The conventional wisdom here is that it is not good against the run. I totally disagree and especially think it's good against the outside zone read the cats run. Also the griz have had some success the last few games running predominately zone defense but that is not how they can beat the cats. The griz need to play heavy in the box and play man coverage. Also we have to just play side to side gap responsibility defense. Very few twisting stunts like they normally do. If they sit in zone cover 2, the cats will run the ball 8-10 yards a clip. If they do a lot of twisting stunts Tommy will exploit that most times. Make Tommy commit to the second option always and make him throw it. The griz will certainly get burned a bit doing this but it's the best chance to get the most stops.
The offense needs to start fast and not let up, they need Fife to be clicking. He seems to be seeing the field very well right now and can hit the open guy very accurately. A steady dose of quick slants, seam routes and TE over the middle. Very few low percentage fades or long developing down field routes, Enough Gilman and Osmo touches to keep them honest. The cats run a 4-2-5 defense. The DE's are good pass rushers and the tackles are good run stoppers. The DL is deep so there is no chance of wearing them down. The LB's are thin now, not super fast but good players and great tacklers. The corners and safeties are great pursuit run stopping tacklers but not so great in coverage.
Just one fan's opinion on how the griz can win
this one.