Then what do you think is?
The large shifts and changes caused by realignment, and how those things will impact FCS in the future; the gradual/steady moves of some good FCS teams to FBS; what the Dakota teams are thinking; and not wanting to be left behind if FCS (which is currently fine, affordable and desirable) ends up being less desirable. Perhaps an opportunity at a good conference like the MW, if it were affordable and available.
As I have said, I don't know, or am not sure, that Gianforte and Bodnar would support a move that would/could cost the State money, or have a significant risk that the move could cause the State to have to step in and put in more money to UM/MSU. I know them, but haven't talked to them about this. Obviously, Haslam is following the subject closely.
Montana's state revenues are currently great, and expenses must be at least relatively in control. I assume the state legislature will look to reduce more expenses in some areas (but don't know that) and will look to cut property taxes and perhaps more income and other taxes, in the next session. I don't know any of the amounts or specifics. Gianforte is very smart, strategic, hardworking, and is especially good on the economy, growth, jobs, business, public-private partnerships in some areas.
Historically, some of the conservative state legislators were not overly excited about the university system. I don't know if that is still the case.
I would think UM/MSU would have to a have very compelling case, and without big risks, in order for Bodnar and Gianforte to support a move. Part of the compelling case could be that FCS is falling part. I don't see that happening yet, but things are changing and who knows.
Another thing I don't have a good read on, is what the top football/athletic donors are currently thinking. I'm not aware of them, or any of them, pushing to move to FBS, but don't know. I assume the coaches would be okay with it, or even favor it, but, again, don't know.
Bodnar played baseball at West Point, until he got hurt. Gianforte played high school football in Pennsylvania.
Perhaps some of you have more information and better thoughts. I am going mostly on impression, not specific knowledge or inside information.