Why Griz fell behind NDSU

[mthoopsfan]

Lol. There is a difference between having a team good enough to make the playoffs and good enough to contend. You’re welcome to have the opinion that those teams were contenders, but you’d be wrong. Last year, yes. Before that, no. The line play wasn’t good enough. Shit, as an example, that time MSU went to the championship they weren’t true contenders. Just caught a hot streak.

Don’t talk Saban and the FBS when we’re talking FCS recruiting. What Bama does, and what the FCS schools do, and deal with, are very different.

What FCS schools have a significant recruiting advantage over UM? What reasons are there that UM shouldn’t be a top team every single year? Maybe you’re okay with low expectations. Happy to squeak by mediocre BSC teams, maybe win the conference, maybe get lucky and go on a hot streak in the playoffs but if not, oh well! I just don’t think that’s good enough. It’s good enough for Idaho for sure. It’s not good enough for UM.

As Elrod said, Missoula is far from the best recruiting grounds, Missoula has a northern climate (and many recruits are from southern climates), Missoula does not have a lot of diversity (Blacks), UM has had more academic integrity than some schools that UM competes with, after Pflu UM was no longer at or near the top in most years, UM did not have an indoor practice facility, UM didn't have even a credible weight room until more recent years, some parents generally have to fly along way to get to Missoula, UM doesn't have cost of living stipends, and, now, UM doesn't have big NIL. Perhaps there are other reasons.

On the positive side, UM has a great stadium, attendance and atmosphere, a great tradition of success that has now come back, very good coaches, a nice town, and a good group of players. Again, perhaps more.

There are various reasons UM probably can't be a top team every year. Injuries, coaching changes, and competing schools that have many or more of the recruiting advantages than UM does. JMU certainly had very good advantages. Many schools are in the heart of good recruiting territory. Almost no school is on or near the top every year. Was NDSU there last year, in your view? MSU certainly wasn't. Very few schools have been at or near the top every year, except the Dakota schools and maybe UM for awhile, except for several streaks of varying lengths.

Being realistic shouldn't be confused with low expectations. The expectations of the program are very high. I'm not so sure high expectations of fans make things better or help; sometimes they make things worse. Especially, unreleastic fans and expectations.

 

[mthoopsfan]

Okay, can you give me anything concrete about what makes a contender? It seems like you're just going off of a subjective opinion of whether or not you personally thought they were a contender. You make the playoffs, and especially in the quarter finals, you are by definition contending for a championship.

I used an example of a D1 coach talking about how kids want NIL. That is absolutely applicable. You realize Sac State just recently announced a 7 figure NIL program, right? Kids wanting to get paid is not unique to the FBS>

As for your last paragraph, you just ignored everything I pointed out. This is why we should just agree to disagree. You seem to think we have advantages, but you cannot name them. I said we have disadvantages, and I named them.

What FCS Schools have an advantage over us in recruiting? Many closer to a major city, major airport. Any of them with local high schools that play higher level football than Montana. Any FCS school with more NIL Money. I know what Sac has announced. I know Davis has some heavy hitters donating. Again, man, you just ignored every point I made.

Lastly, you're just misconstruing me. I'm not saying I have low expectations, I am saying the trend line is clearly going in the right direction since Hauck came back, and I'm hoping it continues to.

SS announced 8 figures of NIL commitments. I know you know that.

 

[ElrodGrizzly]

SS announced 8 figures of NIL commitments. I know you know that.

You're right, I definitely misspoke on that. And we are, well, not even close to that figure.

 

[Wolf777]

You're right, I definitely misspoke on that. And we are, well, not even close to that figure.

Nor is Suck State…..

 

[ElrodGrizzly]

Nor is Suck State…..

I mean, they claim they have "secured" the commitment for the money. Its coming from an outside group largely supported by local businesses that will profit from deep playoff runs. Wasn't there an article saying that we brought in something like 7 million dollars to local businesses during the playoff run? It wouldn't surprise me if their business community is willing to put up money now to get themselves to that level.

I get why people have doubts about it. All we can really do is go off of the press release, though. I guess we will see if it ever changes.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

If prior to Hauck 2.0, someone had told you we'd appear in one championship over 7 seasons (in a historically weak FCS), would that meet your definition of success?

This is an overly simplistic view. The schools that make up FCS have changed, but it is far from the only difference. Fewer kids are playing football, the portal, NIL, etc. Montana doesn't have the advantages it did when Bobby was here the first time.

 

[PTGrizzly]

Okay, can you give me anything concrete about what makes a contender? It seems like you're just going off of a subjective opinion of whether or not you personally thought they were a contender. You make the playoffs, and especially in the quarter finals, you are by definition contending for a championship.

I used an example of a D1 coach talking about how kids want NIL. That is absolutely applicable. You realize Sac State just recently announced a 7 figure NIL program, right? Kids wanting to get paid is not unique to the FBS>

As for your last paragraph, you just ignored everything I pointed out. This is why we should just agree to disagree. You seem to think we have advantages, but you cannot name them. I said we have disadvantages, and I named them.

What FCS Schools have an advantage over us in recruiting? Many closer to a major city, major airport. Any of them with local high schools that play higher level football than Montana. Any FCS school with more NIL Money. I know what Sac has announced. I know Davis has some heavy hitters donating. Again, man, you just ignored every point I made.

Lastly, you're just misconstruing me. I'm not saying I have low expectations, I am saying the trend line is clearly going in the right direction since Hauck came back, and I'm hoping it continues to.

Regarding being a contender, I can say I don't have anything concrete. I think most football knowledgeable fans know one when they see one. We're all going to disagree on what that is though.

Of course kids want money. But what Alabama and the rest of the Power 5 is dealing with is different than what we are. They're talking millions, we're talking thousands. Different level of recruit, different expectations from both parties.

Sac State's NIL program was conditional on going to the Pac-12. There is little, to no, information about it. We do not know if people have actually put up funds, or if they just said they would. We don't know if that $35 million is spread out over multiple years, or if it's annual. I will say this though. If you think they're dealing with millions in NIL fund, you have got to be out of your mind. They don't have that kind of scratch while they're in the BSC. And quite frankly, there's no reason they should be out competing Montana in NIL funds.

I have talked about what advantages Montana has. Consistently competitive teams. Great facilities. Great connections. Great fan base, constantly sold out stadiums. A place where you're the big shot of town. Good coaching. Winning football with as much national attention as any other FCS program. History of NFL players. History of scouts coming to practices and games.

Do you really think that the majority of the time, Incarnate Word or SFA is going to beat UM for a recruit? That Sac State or Davis will beat Montana for a recruit? That Idaho would? We all know that we should expect to beat those schools out in recruiting and on the field. Missoula is a premier program, those other schools aren't. That still matters in recruiting. Players still want to win. You refuse to name a program that has a clear, overall, recruiting advantage over Montana other than the DSU's.

 

[PTGrizzly]

As Elrod said, Missoula is far from the best recruiting grounds, Missoula has a northern climate (and many recruits are from southern climates), Missoula does not have a lot of diversity (Blacks), UM has had more academic integrity than some schools that UM competes with, after Pflu UM was no longer at or near the top in most years, UM did not have an indoor practice facility, UM didn't have even a credible weight room until more recent years, some parents generally have to fly along way to get to Missoula, UM doesn't have cost of living stipends, and, now, UM doesn't have big NIL. Perhaps there are other reasons.

On the positive side, UM has a great stadium, attendance and atmosphere, a great tradition of success that has now come back, very good coaches, a nice town, and a good group of players. Again, perhaps more.

There are various reasons UM probably can't be a top team every year. Injuries, coaching changes, and competing schools that have many or more of the recruiting advantages than UM does. JMU certainly had very good advantages. Many schools are in the heart of good recruiting territory. Almost no school is on or near the top every year. Was NDSU there last year, in your view? MSU certainly wasn't. Very few schools have been at or near the top every year, except the Dakota schools and maybe UM for awhile, except for several streaks of varying lengths.

Being realistic shouldn't be confused with low expectations. The expectations of the program are very high. I'm not so sure high expectations of fans make things better or help; sometimes they make things worse. Especially, unreleastic fans and expectations.

It's amazing that UM has even been competitive!

I would say that NDSU was a top team last year. I don't think losing in OT on the road in hostile conditions in the semi's makes them not a contender. They were clearly one of the top 4 teams, and came incredibly close to making it to the finals. Pretty hard to argue that UM was a top team last year and NDSU wasn't.

JMU isn't an FCS school anymore, fwiw. Not sure if you knew or not.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Do you really think that the majority of the time, Incarnate Word or SFA is going to beat UM for a recruit? That Sac State or Davis will beat Montana for a recruit? That Idaho would? We all know that we should expect to beat those schools out in recruiting and on the field. Missoula is a premier program, those other schools aren't. That still matters in recruiting. Players still want to win. You refuse to name a program that has a clear, overall, recruiting advantage over Montana other than the DSU's.

This is the fallacy many Griz fan's can't seem to get past. Those other schools beat UM out for recruits every year based on a myriad of reasons that are specific to each prospective recruit and school. There is no one-size-fits-all solution.

 

[PTGrizzly]

This is the fallacy many Griz fan's can't seem to get past. Those other schools beat UM out for recruits every year based on a myriad of reasons that are specific to each prospective recruit and school. There is no one-size-fits-all solution.

Absolutely there are going to be some. I firmly believe the Griz should get the majority of those recruits though.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Absolutely there are going to be some. I firmly believe the Griz should get the majority of those recruits though.

Yet they don't. Makes you wonder huh.

 

[gotgame75]

I mean, I'd first say I was responding to a question that was posed. When Bobby came back, if someone said "Hey, PT, within five seasons we will be playing for the national championship," you would have said "Awesome, glad we will stop going backwards after these last 6 years!"

I don't agree that we have the same level of advantages that you are saying here. I know that this has been talked about ad nauseum on the board, and I'm not trying to push you into a debate about just how elite our recruiting advantages are. I think you and I could politely agree to disagree on that, as we won't convince each other.

To your bigger point, I hear often people saying "with our advantages like our stadium we should be a contender every year." Wa-Griz opened in 1986. Since that time, there has never been a time where we competed in the national championship, or realistically had a shot at the national championship, every year. By framing the conversation that way, you are saying that right now we should achieve a bar that has never been achieved before.

NDSU's run of success skewed peoples' opinions on what constitutes success at the FCS level. Until them, no team at the D1 level has been able to do that in modern times. Teams rise and fall, have good periods and down periods. They have national championship runs and reloading years. Would I love for us to be in the national title game every year or the semis every year? Absolutely. Only one team has ever shown they can do that for more than a few years at a time, though, and it has never happened for Montana. I'm not going to set a standard for success as one that has never been achieved.

As I've said many times, I look for trend lines to see how things are going. When he came back, we had missed the playoffs for 2 years and taken 6th and 8th in the Big Sky. I'd say the below is a pretty good trend line. Its going in the direction we want, and it doesn't happen overnight.

2018	Bobby Hauck	6–5	4–4	T–6th
2019	Bobby Hauck	10–4	6–2	T–3rd	L NCAA Division I Quarterfinal
2020	Bobby Hauck	2–0	0–0[n 2]	[n 2]
2021	Bobby Hauck	10–3	6–2	T–3rd	L NCAA Division I Quarterfinal
2022	Bobby Hauck	8–5	4–4	6th	L NCAA Division I Second Round
2023	Bobby Hauck	13-2	7-1	1st	L NCAA Division I Championship

How is this a flex? Multiple 3rd and 6 place finishes in a historically weak division. Quarterfinal and second round appearances are not something to brag about when we are virtually assured a playoff spot based on finances alone. One Big Sky Championship in 6 years is not success in my mind.

 

[GrizProtocol]

93 through 2002 the Griz had a legitimate shot at winning the NC and they went 4 times. Won 2. Hauck showed up to stocked cupboards and never made the team better before he left to UNLV. He struggled to maintain our place in the pecking order when all the powerhouse teams were still in the FCS.

Now all the power programs have left and he still can't luck out and win one.

 

[ElrodGrizzly]

Regarding being a contender, I can say I don't have anything concrete. I think most football knowledgeable fans know one when they see one. We're all going to disagree on what that is though.

Of course kids want money. But what Alabama and the rest of the Power 5 is dealing with is different than what we are. They're talking millions, we're talking thousands. Different level of recruit, different expectations from both parties.

Sac State's NIL program was conditional on going to the Pac-12. There is little, to no, information about it. We do not know if people have actually put up funds, or if they just said they would. We don't know if that $35 million is spread out over multiple years, or if it's annual. I will say this though. If you think they're dealing with millions in NIL fund, you have got to be out of your mind. They don't have that kind of scratch while they're in the BSC. And quite frankly, there's no reason they should be out competing Montana in NIL funds.

I have talked about what advantages Montana has. Consistently competitive teams. Great facilities. Great connections. Great fan base, constantly sold out stadiums. A place where you're the big shot of town. Good coaching. Winning football with as much national attention as any other FCS program. History of NFL players. History of scouts coming to practices and games.

Do you really think that the majority of the time, Incarnate Word or SFA is going to beat UM for a recruit? That Sac State or Davis will beat Montana for a recruit? That Idaho would? We all know that we should expect to beat those schools out in recruiting and on the field. Missoula is a premier program, those other schools aren't. That still matters in recruiting. Players still want to win. You refuse to name a program that has a clear, overall, recruiting advantage over Montana other than the DSU's.

Regarding being a contender, I can say I don't have anything concrete. I think most football knowledgeable fans know one when they see one. We're all going to disagree on what that is though.

Of course kids want money. But what Alabama and the rest of the Power 5 is dealing with is different than what we are. They're talking millions, we're talking thousands. Different level of recruit, different expectations from both parties.

Sac State's NIL program was conditional on going to the Pac-12. There is little, to no, information about it. We do not know if people have actually put up funds, or if they just said they would. We don't know if that $35 million is spread out over multiple years, or if it's annual. I will say this though. If you think they're dealing with millions in NIL fund, you have got to be out of your mind. They don't have that kind of scratch while they're in the BSC. And quite frankly, there's no reason they should be out competing Montana in NIL funds.

I have talked about what advantages Montana has. Consistently competitive teams. Great facilities. Great connections. Great fan base, constantly sold out stadiums. A place where you're the big shot of town. Good coaching. Winning football with as much national attention as any other FCS program. History of NFL players. History of scouts coming to practices and games.

Do you really think that the majority of the time, Incarnate Word or SFA is going to beat UM for a recruit? That Sac State or Davis will beat Montana for a recruit? That Idaho would? We all know that we should expect to beat those schools out in recruiting and on the field. Missoula is a premier program, those other schools aren't. That still matters in recruiting. Players still want to win. You refuse to name a program that has a clear, overall, recruiting advantage over Montana other than the DSU's.

Of course there are different levels to the money. We are talking thousands, and my point is that even other FCS schools are talking a lot more money. I'm not sure how plugged in on the NIL side you are, but our war chest is not considered to be as equal to others as you are suggesting. The reason I think that Sac State is dealing in the millions is because they say so publicly. You are welcome to disagree with that, but I'm kind of limited by public information. I don't find it unbelievable that they could raise $35 million, and even if that was spread over a decade it would be orders of magnitude higher than what we are working with in terms of NIL.

As for advantages, yes, we are back to being consistently competitive, but we got knocked backward and are fighting for recruits we would have had easily 20 years ago. Are the facilities THAT great compared to teams like Mountain West teams and other top FCS schools? I genuinely don't know, I haven't toured other schools, but people who have tell me that we are not far and away better than everyone else and we upgraded ours comparatively recently to NDSU (that is the point of this thread, after all). I haven't known a lot of the kids to say that they ever came because they could feel like big shots around town. They may get a beer or something, but it's not like our freshmen linebackers are being mobbed in Albertsons.

Plenty of FCS teams can claim guys in the NFL and scouts coming to town. That's not really an advantage for UM, especially when our competitor schools have some more famous and more recent ones. Good coaching, sure, but there is good coaching in a lot of places and that is VERY subjective.

I just don't see those advantages you list being so strong that they outweigh things like "My Mom and Dad can watch me play every week!" Proximity to home is a big deal. As Alabamagriz recently pointed out, there are also thousands more FBS football scholarships going around than there were 20 years ago.

Again, all respect to you, and we may just see things very differently, but I don't view us as having major recruiting advantages over other FCS schools. Yes, we have been beaten out for recruits by teams like Incarnate Word. Yes, I believe that a kid from Sacramento would like to stay close to home, so would a kid who grew up near Davis. You are welcome to disagree with that, but they are both just that, beliefs.

I got offered a scholarship to be a competitor at a school in California. I turned it down because I just didn't want to move to California and be away from everyone and everything I knew. At 18, that was a scary thought to me and I had always grown up close to the U and wanted to go to Missoula. I didn't have any other offers on the table, and I turned down that school just to stay close to home. (Yea, it was a really stupid decision in retrospect). My point is that you are making HUGE assumptions about what kids want and why they would come here. I think we have a lot less advantages for recruiting than you give us credit for.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

Now all the power programs have left

This is really a meaningless point and has very little to actually do with anything.

 

[gotgame75]

This is an overly simplistic view. The schools that make up FCS have changed, but it is far from the only difference. Fewer kids are playing football, the portal, NIL, etc. Montana doesn't have the advantages it did when Bobby was here the first time.

How is it overly simplistic? I didn't say it happened for any singular reason. But the fact is, we were sold a marketing gimmick of a "Return to Dominance" that failed. We are not dominant in the slightest. And Bobby is not the coach to get us there either. If he didn't win a natty in his first go around, how can we reasonably expect it to happen now? The game has changed and Bobby has not.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

How is it overly simplistic? I didn't say it happened for any singular reason. But the fact is, we were sold a marketing gimmick of a "Return to Dominance" that failed. We are not dominant in the slightest. And Bobby is not the coach to get us there either. If he didn't win a natty in his first go around, how can we reasonably expect it to happen now? The game has changed and Bobby has not.

All that specific post said was "FCS is weak, we should be better". Seems simplistic.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

How is it overly simplistic? I didn't say it happened for any singular reason. But the fact is, we were sold a marketing gimmick of a "Return to Dominance" that failed. We are not dominant in the slightest. And Bobby is not the coach to get us there either. If he didn't win a natty in his first go around, how can we reasonably expect it to happen now? The game has changed and Bobby has not.

IMO, anyone that bought the RTD was gullible.

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

A little math example. Let's assume that 10 schools move from FCS to FBS. Those schools could offer 63 scholarships at the FCS level and can now offer 85 at the FBS level. Those schools go from a total of 630 scholarships to 850. That is 220 of the top kids that use to fall to FCS that no longer will. Those schools moving not only made FCS weaker on a program basis, it weakened all the schools that remained (especially the ones at the top). It is all relative. So the "all the power schools left so we should be better" line is a big nothing in my book.

 

[oldngrizzly]

IMO, anyone that bought the RTD was gullible.

Elrod?